Albania Makes a Case for Ethnic Divorce

We had better get used to the word “Albanians” because we will be hearing a lot more about them in the coming years in the Balkans. History’s ghosts are once again revisiting us in what used to be known as the “Albanian question.”

After Kosovo, the Albanians again are the active ingredient in the most recent flare-up in Macedonia. This has been a rather predictable crisis in the Yugoslav context for some years now, for the very simple reason that the Albanians are a geographically split people. And they don’t like it.

Albanians point out that the current country of Albania is really a rump state, carved out by European powers just before World War I. Large regions of Albanian populations--maybe up to half of the Albanian population of that time--were deliberately excluded from the Albanian state. Today, Albania is ringed all the way around by Albanian populations in Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. Nor are these populations anywhere happy or prosperous living under the domination of Slavic states that look upon Albanians with prejudice, dislike and fear and that deny them their identity and cultural rights. The situation is ready-made for fervid Albanian nationalists who want at a minimum to be independent of their Slav rulers in Kosovo and Macedonia and probably think of associating themselves with the Albanian state down the road.

It is hard to see how this situation is susceptible to solution. For now, the West is lucky because the current government of Albania is dominated by the less Muslim south--Albania is 30% Christian and 70% Muslim. That leadership is playing it cool and lending no overt support to Albanian separatism across the borders. But how long will it be before some new Albanian leadership from the more Muslim north openly supports a pan-Albanian movement that brings Kosovars and Macedonian Albanians into the fold? Kosovar Albanians and guerrillas from Albania are already helping their brethren in Macedonia in the guerrilla struggle.

We can also be certain that Macedonia, just like Serbia, will hardly tolerate a separatist movement among its one-third Albanian population. Guerrilla fighting will polarize the situation, and Macedonian authorities may even push for some kind of ethnic cleansing that will drive the Albanians of Macedonia into Albania rather than letting them take the territory with them, as happened in Kosovo.

The West continues its search for ethnic reconciliation in the former Yugoslavia, offering mouth-to-mouth resuscitation to the ideal of tolerant, multiethnic states. Yet the region’s history makes such a quest seem increasingly quixotic. The West cannot come out in favor of ethnic separatism, but the reality is that separatism and the search for ethnic homogeneity is the most powerful force out there today. Washington, like a judo master, had perhaps best flow with these overwhelming forces of reality if it wants to influence them.

Given the sharp ethnic and religious differences between most Albanians and Macedonian and Serb Slavs, reconciliation is not in the cards. The voice of fervid nationalism will rise above that of the tiny liberal minority on both sides.

The future of this new century will be distinguished by rising ethnicity and multiple dissatisfied and repressed minorities the world over, none of whom ever asked to be part of the dysfunctional states in which they languish. Should ultimate international emphasis be placed upon preservation of existing borders and sovereignties as some sacred mission? That may take a lot of peacekeeping troops for a long time, with possibly little to show for it.

Or should we be more pragmatic about warning those states that are in trouble that if marriage counseling doesn’t work, the world may prefer to go with equitable divorce settlements that might work?

This does not mean that the ideal of multiethnic societies is over. It does mean that history has poisoned the well in many regions where it will take many decades of cooling down before people can think about coming together again--this time on a new and voluntary basis.

The modern world will reward functional multiethnic societies with political, social and economic success. The rest will have to wait until they want to achieve that goal badly enough to tone down their historical memories and make the necessary sacrifices.