Villaraigosa’s Run Defies Doomsayers

Antonio Villaraigosa’s race for mayor was supposed to have run out of gas long ago. Sputtered to an embarrassing halt. Or just crashed and burned.

A big shot in Sacramento; little known in L.A., where TV “news” virtually ignores the state Capitol. That was the experts’ take.

There had been case histories: Then-Assemblyman Richard Katz, a San Fernando Valley Democrat, ran for mayor in 1993 and was bounced in the first round. In 1973, former Assembly Speaker Jesse Unruh’s mayoral ambitions also were buried in the primary.

Sages predicted the same fate for Speaker Villaraigosa. In fact, I wrote in early 1999: “Perhaps Villaraigosa, a relatively young 46, should aim lower and run for City Council in his first local race.”

Fortunately for Villaraigosa, he ignored me--and also his chief political consultant, Parke Skelton. (We’re not related.)

“I’ll be perfectly honest with you,” recalls Skelton, now Villaraigosa’s campaign strategist, “I advised him to run for City Council rather than mayor. I thought he was not well enough known. The best known legislator is not as well known as the least known council member.

“He said he thought he could do it. . . . He wasn’t afraid to lose.”

All right, Skelton told him, he’d need four endorsements--the labor federation, the Sierra Club, National Organization for Women and United Farm Workers--then “maybe we’ll have a shot at getting into the runoff.”

Villaraigosa not only won those four, but the endorsements of many others: the Democratic Party, the Stonewall Democratic Club (gays), U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, Gov. Gray Davis . . .

Now he’s also picking up Republican support: State Senate Minority Leader Jim Brulte of Rancho Cucamonga, former Speaker Curt Pringle of Orange County, Assemblyman Bill Leonard of San Bernardino--and veteran GOP consultants Ken Khachigian and Stu Spencer.

Far from being dead meat, polls show Villaraigosa in a dead heat with City Atty. James K. Hahn to be elected mayor on June 5.

*

What’s his appeal to Republicans? Pragmatism and politics.

“Once you get past the fact that a liberal, pro-labor Democrat is going to be elected mayor of Los Angeles--whoever wins--the next question is who will treat Republicans fairly,” Brulte says. “And people who served with Speaker Villaraigosa know that he went out of his way to accommodate Republicans.”

Brulte notes that Villaraigosa helped Republicans cap developer fees for school construction, end “social promotion” of students and increase charter schools.

Pringle recalls him as somebody “focused on solutions, not on philosophical purity.” Leonard, the minority leader when Villaraigosa was speaker, says: “We developed a working relationship that I respected.”

Spencer sees Villaraigosa “in the mode” of legendary speakers Unruh, Bob Moretti and Willie Brown--practical Democrats willing to deal with Republicans. Beyond that, he thinks this is a great opportunity for Republicans to reach out to Latinos.

That’s Khachigian’s main point: “It’s just basically smart Republican politics to identify with Antonio’s candidacy.”

Hahn strategist Kam Kuwata dismisses all this. “Having the endorsement of out-of-town cronies isn’t going to save him,” Kuwata says. “Villaraigosa is going to lose because he’s too liberal.”

The most prominent Republican politician supporting Hahn is City Councilman Hal Bernson.

Many are waiting for signals from GOP businessman Steve Soboroff, who finished third in the primary, and Mayor Richard Riordan.

Riordan told me Monday night he’ll “probably” endorse a candidate, but not for at least 10 days. First, he’ll interview the contestants. Many think he’s leaning toward Villaraigosa.

*

Villaraigosa’s secret?

An infectious, upbeat personality for starters. A wide grin that radiates concern and warmth. He’s a political natural.

Working a room, Villaraigosa is in a league with President Bush and Bill Clinton. Hahn looks stiff.

Villaraigosa has unsurpassed energy. For years, he has worked L.A. hard, meeting people of every persuasion and ethnicity. It paid off on April 10, when he finished No. 1.

The charisma, tenacity and confidence--combined with the growing Latino population--lead to an exciting sense of history-in-the-making. This onetime East L.A. street kid with the American story could become the city’s first Latino mayor since 1872. That creates a buzz and draws people--prominent and poor.

He could still crash. Say something stupid. Scare voters. This race still has to finish.

But win or lose, Villaraigosa’s campaign already is a surprising success. At least to us “experts.”