They’re Armed and Ready

Whether it’s apes, ogres, dinosaurs, tomb raiders, robots or Parisian courtesans, there are plenty of unusual characters to go around in this summer’s packed movie season. Arriving amid labor uncertainty and industry layoffs and following last year’s sluggish performance and a rash of theater-chan bankruptcies, this summer is critical for Hollywood.

The good news is that the studios seem prepared with a slew of films offering diversity in subjects, locations and casts. Whether you want action-adventure, science-fiction, romantic comedies, gross-out sequels or historical dramas, the slate seems substantial enough to make the summer look promising.

Another hopeful sign as Calendar went to press was apparent progress by the Writers Guild and producers toward averting a strike. An agreement with the writers would bode well for a similar accord that would avoid a separate strike by actors that could handicap the studios’ ability to market the movies they’ve already made.

So far this year, industry box office numbers are 11.5% ahead of last year, according to analysts at A.C. Nielsen EDI, a box office tracking service. The momentum studios establish in the summer could carry them throughout the rest of the year. Even though last summer’s revenue was down slightly to $2.65 billion compared to 1999’s nearly $2.7 billion, it was still one of the most profitable summers ever, according to Dan Marks at EDI.

“Summer is always important for the studios--the past four summers have averaged 36.4% of the year’s box office total,” said Marks. “Clearly last summer versus the summer before, the public did not care for the movies as much.”

But this summer’s lineup could “rocket the box office to new levels,” said Marks. The key to a successful summer, which technically runs from Memorial Day through Labor Day but in effect really began Friday, is consistency and momentum, said Fox Filmed Entertainment Chairman Jim Gianopulous.

“A lot of what drives the summer season is one success enhancing another,” he said. “If there is a momentum to the summer season, people get into the habit of going to the movies.”

Revolution Studios founder Joe Roth predicts this summer will see at least 10 films that gross more than $100 million.

“I would be astonished if this summer isn’t the biggest summer of all time by at least 20%,” said Roth. “I think this summer will be huge.”

There seem to be some sure-fire bets starting with Universal’s “The Mummy Returns,” which opened Friday, and followed by DreamWorks’ “Shrek,” Sony’s “A Knight’s Tale” and then Disney’s “Pearl Harbor,” said Gitesh Pandya, editor of boxofficeguru.com.

“‘Mummy Returns’ and ‘Pearl Harbor’ are the sandwich films that will do really big numbers,” he predicted. Later in the summer months, Steven Spielberg’s “A.I.” might pull in large crowds, mainly because it’s Spielberg’s first directorial outing since 1998’s “Saving Private Ryan,” said Pandya.

He added that this summer there are more films starring female leads, something that could bring out the young female crowd in large numbers.

“Last summer was way too male driven,” said Pandya. “Almost every female star was just missing in action. This summer, I’m very bullish on [Paramount’s] ‘Tomb Raider’ [starring Angelina Jolie]. It has a built-in audience, not only young males but young females who will look at this as the kick-butt female type character .... Also there is [Warner Bros.’] ‘Angel Eyes.’ I give it the benefit of the doubt because it has Jennifer Lopez. She has come into her own as a female box office anchor.”

But this summer’s first real push could come from sequels--lots of them. After its “Mummy” follow-up, Universal in July will bring out “Jurassic Park III,” followed by “American Pie 2” in August. In June, Fox will release “Dr. Dolittle 2,” followed by Miramax’s “Scary Movie 2” in July and New Line’s “Rush Hour 2” in August. As Marks points out, sequels are perhaps the easiest money making vehicles.

This summer’s sequels are “a pretty powerful group,” he said. “They are pretty high profile and these movies tend to open big. [Any sequel] has a built-in audience and built-in marketing. But after the opening, the public will decide, and it will hold up based on word of mouth.” Indeed, word of mouth is essential for the sequels. As Nikki Rocco, president of Universal Pictures distribution, said, a studio cannot rest on its laurels.

“What you need to to do is tell the world that it is in fact a different film that is better than the last time,” said Rocco.Beyond sequels, there will be many original action films and historical dramas.

Perhaps the most highly anticipated historical film of the summer is Disney’s “Pearl Harbor,” starring Ben Affleck, Cuba Gooding Jr. and Kate Beckinsale. Although Disney has high expectations for the film, Peter Schneider, chairman of Walt Disney Studios, says the company is counting on its entire slate to contribute to a successful year.

The company needs a high box office turnout, considering it has found it necessary to cut more than 4,000 jobs. The studio is pulling out all the stops for “Pearl Harbor” including a $5-million premiere on a Navy battleship for nearly 2,000 guests.

“Certainly there is a lot riding on ‘Pearl Harbor’ but at the end of the day it is about the totality of the year’s slate,” he said. “I never look at it as though this summer will make or break us. It really is a long-term business.”

Still, for the summer months, the studio has covered its bases with a package of films that offer family entertainment, animation and adult-themed films.

Warner Bros. has an action-filled slate, with the exception of Spielberg’s “A.I.,” which stars Haley Joel Osment and Jude Law, the animatronic and CGI film “Cats and Dogs” and the live-action/animated Bill Murray/Chris Rock feature “Osmosis Jones.”

Fox, which was the second most successful studio of the summer last year behind Disney, also has a diverse group of movies this summer.

In addition to “Apes” and “Dr. Dolittle 2,” in the action realm, there’s the martial arts film “Kiss of the Dragon,” starring and produced by Jet Li. The studio is hoping that film will benefit from the martial arts craze that helped make “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” so successful.

In contrast to the fast-action martial arts movie that appeals mainly to young males, Fox also has director Baz Luhrmann’s very adult “Moulin Rouge,” which stars Nicole Kidman and Ewan Macgregor. The studio hopes the film, which opens the summer for Fox (it opens May 18 in New York and L.A. and nationwide June 1), will catch fire. Although releasing a sophisticated musical in the height of the summer season may seem risky, the studio was determined to have “Moulin Rouge” debut at the Cannes Film Festival in May to generate buzz. Fox’s Gianopulous was so adamant about the film kicking off the festival that he personally flew to France in March to screen an unfinished print for the Cannes selection committee. His persistence paid off--the film was selected as a competition entry that will open the festival Wednesday.

The summer also offers some companies the opportunity to reestablish themselves. MGM released so few movies last summer the company practically dropped out of industry consciousness. It has been trying to regroup after years of disastrous financial performance and corporate upheaval. Spring proved promising, with two successive films, “Hannibal” and “Heartbreakers,” reaching No. 1 at the box office--the first time since 1994 the studio has been able to accomplish that.

“We made a conscious decision to be very careful about putting a release slate that was competitive this summer,” said Chris McGurk, chief operating officer of MGM. “Last year was our rebuilding year where we were putting together this year’s slate. Hopefully, this summer will continue our momentum.”

With MGM’s summer film budgets averaging around $30 million, the studio is not expecting to break records, just hoping for modest success.

The studio is offering some counterprogramming to male-oriented action films. “Legally Blonde” starring Reese Witherspoon and scheduled for release in July, is “‘Clueless’ goes to law school,” McGurk said.

Another female-led film this summer is the Julia Roberts vehicle “America’s Sweethearts.” After his new studio’s disappointing March release of “Tomcats,” Roth is hoping “America’s Sweethearts” will catch fire. Considering the romantic comedy will be sandwiched between “Jurassic Park 3” and “Planet of the Apes,” Roberts’ box office charm will have to kick in to give the movie some legs.

“It’s not about picking the perfect weekend,” said Roth, who is also making his feature directorial debut with the film. “No one can predict how the movies will hold over. This is an alternative to the young male fare out there. What you really try to do is have something different enough and appealing enough to withstand the competition in the summer.”