The Dilemma of Population Without Representation

The 2000 census contained an unpleasant surprise for state Democratic political operatives who will redraw legislative and congressional district lines. While California grew by 4.1 million people during the 1990s, and the number of Latinos mushroomed, areas of heaviest minority concentration and of Democratic voting strength lost population. The decline is most apparent in central Los Angeles County, and could set white, black and Latino legislators at each other’s throats before redistricting is concluded.

Redistricting is, first and foremost, about numbers: All districts must contain equal numbers of people. To achieve this, L.A. area legislators will be forced to cut up a much-reduced pie. The 10 Democratic state Senate districts and 20 overlapping Assembly districts are short 570,000 people; the 12 Democratic members of Congress are short by 400,000. The deficits are most pronounced in the county’s heavily minority districts.

How can this be, given the huge increase in California’s minority populations? A couple of factors contributed to the people shortfall. L.A. County did not grow as rapidly as the rest of the state in the 1990s. A sizable portion of its white population moved out. Not as many Mexican immigrants, who filled inner-city areas in the 1980s, came in the 1990s. More and more Latinos moved to the suburbs. Perhaps most important, the county’s percentage of African American residents fell dramatically.

The demographic changes should result in a loss of both white and black representation, since their absolute numbers are lowest. But don’t count on it. The five white Democratic House members on the Westside and in the San Gabriel and San Fernando Valleys--Reps. Brad Sherman, Howard L. Berman, Adam Schiff, Henry A. Waxman and Jane Harman--are a combined 112,000 people short. The three black districts--the open Julian Dixon seat and those held by Reps. Maxine Waters and Juanita Millender-McDonald--are a collective 107,000 short. A congressional district should have 639,000 people.

What’s more, the people in these districts are increasingly Latino. The Berman seat is 65% Latino; he will not survive the decade without more white voters. There are enough Latinos to carve out a new Latino congressional district in the current three black districts. These districts have a combined black population of 563,000, compared with a Latino population of 900,000.

At the heart of Southern California’s redistricting problem are the delicate situations of white Democrats who must find more white voters, black Democrats who simply need more people and a careful balancing of the demographics so that none of their districts are overwhelmed by the burgeoning Latino population.

The final reapportionment bill, then, will likely save all eight of the population-imperiled white and black Democrats--at the expense of greater Latino representation. Michael Berman, brother of the representative, is chief consultant for both state Senate Democrats and the Democratic House delegation. “Every incumbent Latino will be elected and every black incumbent will be elected,” Waters said in an interview. “There is no problem.” In any case, would Gov. Gray Davis sign a bill that reduces black representation in California?

Democrats would like to convince Latino leaders that they will get more seats at the expense of Republicans, but that dog doesn’t hunt. There are only four GOP congressional seats left in L.A. County. Rep. Howard P. “Buck” McKeon’s district has gained 60,000 people. The districts of Reps. David Dreier and Gary G. Miller, in the eastern part of the county, border growing Republican suburbs in San Bernardino and Riverside counties. As a result, both are likely to see their districts extended into the desert.

The only realistic target for a new Latino district is the largely Democratic one held by GOP Rep. Steve Horn of Long Beach, who barely was reelected last year. Termed-out Democratic Latina Assemblywoman Sally M. Havice has already declared for the seat. But problems arise here as well.

Horn’s district is 40% Latino in population, but only 18% of its voters are Latino. It would have to undergo a major population shift to become a majority Latino district. Democratic and Republican representatives are talking about a grand deal that will protect all current members of Congress if the GOP cedes the Democrats the one new district that California gained because of population growth.

If the deal comes together, Horn’s district might add some GOP precincts in Orange County or absorb the Republican-leaning Palos Verdes Peninsula from Harman’s. Leftover Democrats would be allocated to underpopulated seats nearby. All this would certainly make Horn’s district more Republican. Working out a deal with Republicans, furthermore, would deter GOP lawsuits or a referendum against Democratic plans, which might draw more attention to the unpleasantness being visited upon L.A.’s burgeoning Latino population.

Are Latino leaders angry at this maneuver to dilute Latino representation? Roll Call magazine reported in April that the Congressional Hispanic Caucus ‘privately agreed’ to back Democratic incumbents in primary contests with Latino Democrats. That certainly implies it would accept any tinkering with congressional districts to protect white and black Democrats in Los Angeles. Latinos hold only four of the 16 House seats wholly or partly located within Los Angeles County, yet they account for 45% of the population.

There is nothing unprecedented about denying Latinos new districts through redistricting. Virtually all the legislative gains that Latinos have made in California occurred in districts drawn by the California Supreme Court in the 1973 and 1991. They made few gains in the 1960s or 1980s when legislators drew up the reapportionment plans. In the 1980s, the Latino population of a Latino-leaning Assembly district was diluted to help the political prospects of a white incumbent.

As Don Vito Corleone would say in “The Godfather,” “This isn’t personal, it’s just business.” In redistricting, incumbents come first. Beginning with the 1970s, incumbents have used Latino residents to bring underpopulated white and black districts up to the required population levels. With Democrats fully in control of the process this cycle, and Republicans reduced to just a handful of seats in the county, that cycle likely will be repeated once again in 2001.