State to Issue Warnings of Power Outages

Californians will hear an expanded forecast on their morning commutes this summer, courtesy of the energy crisis: “The 405 Freeway is jammed, there’s a slim chance of showers, and oh, by the way, there’s a 50% likelihood of blackouts.”

By the end of this month, the California Independent System Operator, the agency that manages the state’s power grid, expects to issue 24-hour forecasts generally detailing when and where blackouts can be expected.

It is also piecing together a high-tech system to give businesses, government officials and the public at least a half-hour notice of a probable blackout in their area.

Just how those notices will be issued remains somewhat up in the air, but Cal-ISO is talking with private companies capable of notifying more than 10,000 customers a minute via fax and phone, and millions a minute via wireless communications such as pagers.

Cal-ISO assembled the plan after complaints from businesses, particularly those in the Silicon Valley, that last-minute blackouts were costing California millions. The plan also responds to growing political pressure for the public to be kept informed of the barrage of outages that is expected to darken the state this summer because of insufficient supplies of electricity.

If Californians’ electricity use pattern is similar to last year’s, Cal-ISO has projected, the state could suffer 34 days of blackouts, making increased notification crucial.

With a shortage of hydroelectric power imports from the drought-stricken Pacific Northwest, and no new power plants coming online until July, the agency calculates that there will be a supply-demand gap in June of 3,700 megawatts--enough power to supply 2.8 million homes. A national utility industry group painted a more dire scenario last week when it predicted that California will experience up to 260 hours of blackouts this summer.

“The weather report and traffic report are good analogies; people know they are not 100% accurate, but if [a blackout] really means a lot to them, they will check in,” said Mike Florio of the Utility Reform Network, who serves on the Cal-ISO board.

Details remain sketchy, and the programs may be altered when the board meets Thursday. But a Web page called “Today’s Outlook” on the agency’s Internet site, https://www.caiso.com, will be created to illustrate, hour by hour, how much electricity is available during a 24-hour period and whether there is a predicted surplus or shortfall.

Media outreach will be expanded to provide news bulletins on electricity conditions a day in advance. They will not only include demand projections and the effects of weather, but they also will define the level of emergency that is expected.

A “power watch” will be sounded during stage 1 and stage 2 shortages, and a more serious “power warning” if there is a 50-50 chance of a stage 3, which often results in blackouts. (Stage 1 emergencies occur when power reserves drop below 7%, stage 2 5% and stage 3 1.5%.)

Most important, Cal-ISO is pledging to provide 30-minute notice of probable blackouts to people in the areas served by Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric, among others. In addition to giving the warnings on the Internet and through the mass media, Cal-ISO will sound alarms to select e-mail addresses and pager numbers on “blast lists,” or massive computer databases that it will assemble.

“The technology is there. This is a war California is in, and we should be deploying high-tech solutions,” said Carl Guardino of the Silicon Valley Manufacturing Group, the Cal-ISO board member who had been pushing hardest for better notification. “Every time California goes black, the economy sees red.”

Guardino said that businesses and public agencies are now receiving just two- to six-minute warnings before blackouts, not nearly enough to react.

“A two-minute warning may be sufficient in a football game, but it is insufficient to protect California businesses and the public,” he said.

Though businesses and government agencies are expected to make the most of the warnings, Florio said residents also will benefit.

“It will be more of a challenge to get the information to individual homeowners, but if someone works at home, and sets it up to get an e-mail notice, they can take advantage,” he said.

In other energy news Monday, the woman in charge of paying California’s power bills warned that a $13.4-billion bond issue to cover electricity purchases will be insufficient and that the state will have to borrow $4 billion more before it runs out of cash in February.

Calling a news conference in the capital, state Controller Kathleen Connell questioned the key assumptions underpinning Gov. Gray Davis’ financial plan for overcoming the energy crisis. The plan assumes the $13.4 billion in bond sales will repay state coffers for electricity purchases and cover future power buys for the next two years.

Connell’s opinion is notable because, as the state’s chief check writer, the independently elected Democrat is privy to information about the prices the state is paying for electricity bought on the spot market and through long-term contracts--data that Davis has largely kept secret.

Davis’ advisors and Department of Finance officials dispute Connell’s warnings.