Shift May Empower California

James M. Jeffords has never mattered much to Californians. Until now.

The Vermont senator’s widely anticipated decision to abandon his fellow Republicans and put Democrats in control of the Senate could have big implications for California, particularly on energy and environmental policy, lawmakers and lobbyists said Wednesday.

The change, which Jeffords is expected to announce today, could increase political pressure on the Bush administration to respond more aggressively to California’s electricity crisis, these insiders said.

And it might force the White House to compromise on key elements of the national energy policy it unveiled last week. In fact, the administration’s proposed budget cuts for programs to promote renewable energy were said to be a factor in Jeffords’ decision.

At the very least, Senate observers said, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is likely to get the floor vote she has sought on price controls for wholesale electricity.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that the administration’s critics will be able to have everything their way. Even if the Senate approves electricity price caps, for example, the measure would face stiff opposition in the GOP-dominated House--and a likely veto if it made it to the president’s desk.

Still, a Democratic majority in the Senate would give Feinstein and other party members a platform to turn up the political heat on the administration and congressional Republicans on energy policy.

“It kicks up the dust,” groaned one energy industry lobbyist who requested anonymity.

Observed Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.): “If President Bush’s hard-edged conservative approach has in fact caused the balance to shift towards Democrats in the Senate, it will have profound implications not just for California, but for the environment and our nation’s energy policy.”

Environmentalists seemed almost giddy as they contemplated the possible impact of Jeffords’ decision on the policies they care about.

All of a sudden, they said, it seems less likely that oil exploration will take place in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, that recreational snowmobiles will have free access to Yellowstone National Park, or that the administration’s desire to promote nuclear power will be embraced by Congress.

On the other hand, it seems more probable that Congress would approve a new plan for managing a vast swath of the Sierra Nevada to protect the region’s oldest trees, consider legislation to restrict emissions of carbon dioxide from power plants and protect California from a resurgence of offshore oil drilling.

“It’s stunning how broad the repercussions are, particularly on the environment,” said Gregory Wetstone of the Natural Resources Defense Council. “We’re trying not to count our chickens before they hatch. But it will be easier for us in our battles at least to keep from moving backwards.”

For instance, Jeffords is a chief advocate of a bill that would regulate carbon dioxide from power plants. And if events play out as expected, he’ll become the new chairman of the Senate committee with jurisdiction over the issue.

Another issue under his purview would be the two-decade dispute over a proposed repository for the nation’s spent nuclear fuel at Yucca Mountain in Nevada.

“Yucca Mountain is a dead turkey,” declared Michael Francis of the Wilderness Society.

Environmentalists had been worried that a number of pro-development provisions would be packed into appropriation bills. But with Democratic senators in charge, that would become less of a threat, they said.

“Every wacko idea Republicans have will get a higher level of scrutiny,” Francis said.

The biggest change would be the power of Senate Democrats to decide which bills will be considered in committees, and which ones will make it to the floor of the Senate for votes.

As part of a new Democratic majority, Feinstein and fellow California Democrat Barbara Boxer are likely to gain leverage with the administration on a number of issues considered important to the state.

“That translates into more federal assistance for California across the board,” predicted Steve Maviglio, spokesman for Gov. Gray Davis.

“I think it means more attention to our state, for sure,” Boxer said. “Right now, the president doesn’t seem to give a darn. They’re all looking at California as a Democratic state. They’re not interested.”

Feinstein, who has been unable to arrange a meeting with Bush to discuss the energy crisis, may get better treatment if winning Democratic support becomes more important to the administration. She has been regarded as a bridge-builder who worked effectively with Republicans in the past.

“This has not been a warm and friendly administration,” she complained Wednesday. “They’ve got people who know all the answers and don’t want to listen.”

The White House disputed that. In fact, Bush agreed Wednesday to meet with Davis during the president’s first visit to California next week.

Under a Democratic majority, Feinstein would be in line to chair two subcommittees: the military construction panel of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and the technology, terrorism and government information subcommittee of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Boxer would be in line to chair the subcommittee on Superfund, waste control and risk assessment, and the Foreign Relations subcommittee on international operations and terrorism.

Maviglio predicted that the effects of Jeffords’ expected party defection would be felt immediately.

The chairmanship of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee would be taken away from Frank H. Murkowski (R-Alaska), who has been “openly hostile to California’s plight,” and handed to Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), who supports Davis’ request for electricity price controls, according to Maviglio.

Democrats have assailed Bush’s energy plan for tilting heavily toward the supply side. With Democrats in charge of the Senate, the administration would be more likely to compromise, perhaps beefing up funding for Democrat-supported causes such as increased energy assistance to low-income households and more aggressive promotion of conservation and renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.