Plane Crash Unnerves Travelers

The crash Monday morning of an American Airlines jetliner unnerved a nation wary of flying since Sept. 11, although the disaster is unlikely to slow the rebound in air travel if the cause was mechanical, as early reports indicated.

But if investigators find that the crash of American Flight 587 was caused by sabotage, it will deliver another huge blow to the travel and airline industries, which were devastated after the terrorist attacks two months ago, analysts and others said.

“It really depends on what the cause is,” said Barbara Beyer, president of Avmark Inc., an airline consulting firm in Arlington, Va. If it’s tied to terrorism, she said, “it’s going to have a catastrophic impact.”

A sampling of passengers showed that many were willing to fly if another terrorist act wasn’t involved.

And initial signs didn’t point to terrorism as the cause of the crash shortly after takeoff from Kennedy International Airport in New York, and instead indicated “this is an accident,” said Marion Blakey, chairwoman of the National Transportation Safety Board, which is leading the investigation. All 260 people aboard the Airbus A300 were killed. The flight was bound for Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

Passengers generally stayed with their travel plans, and the major airlines reported no significant changes in bookings. At United Airlines, there were “some cancellations but nothing really abnormal,” and “there’s been very little demand for refunds,” said spokesman Joe Hopkins.

“The idea of canceling my trip never entered my mind,” said Karla Jondle, a nurse who lives in Long Beach. She said she is planning to go ahead with a long-delayed visit to New York next month. “I figure the law of averages is on my side.”

But for others, the latest air disaster gave pause. Eugene and Nikey Key of Palm Desert were scheduled to fly on Delta Air Lines Flight 136 Monday morning from LAX to New York to celebrate their 20th wedding anniversary. Veteran travelers, they’ve been around the world by plane and ship six times, Nikey Key said. But after waiting for three hours at the departure gate, they pulled the plug on their trip to New York. Eugene Key thought the trip would be a hassle. His wife said she was simply afraid.

Operations at Los Angeles International Airport were little changed after the crash of the American Airbus A300, although the shutdown of New York airports forced the cancellation or delay of 18 of the 43 daily flights between LAX and either JFK or Newark. LAX officials said they did not implement any additional security procedures .after the crash Monday.

A plane crash historically chills passenger traffic mainly for the airline involved and “for a fairly short period of time,” said Jon Ash, managing director of Global Aviation Associates, a consulting firm in Washington.

But these are not normal times. With airport-security issues on travelers’ minds and at the center of congressional debate, about 1.5 million fewer people are flying domestically compared with a year ago, a 25% reduction.

And even though the busy Thanksgiving weekend is around the corner, airlines have been reporting sluggish bookings for this month.

“The American public is skittish right now” about flying, Ash said. But if this crash is found to be unrelated to terrorism, “the overall impact will not be measurable in terms of dampening the recovery” of U.S. air travel, Ash said.

Ernie Held, owner of Held Travel Bureau in Chicago, said his agency hadn’t had any cancellations “but people are definitely more worried in general about flying since Sept. 11. Business was actually just getting better, people were beginning to think it was safe to fly again” before the crash Monday, he said.

Phil Condit, chairman of Airbus rival Boeing Co., said the people who “aren’t flying are worried. This won’t help. But I don’t think it will change the [passenger] numbers very much.”

Others aren’t so sure. “Further damage to citizens’ confidence in airline-system security is likely already done” from the New York crash “no matter the cause,” said Kevin Mitchell, chairman of the Business Travel Coalition, an advocacy group.

Michael Davis, an engineering consultant in Seattle, said that “if this crash does turn out to be connected to terrorism, then I think the problems with airline security are even worse than we suspected, and I’d need proof things had changed before I would fly again.”

Arthur Lee, who had just landed in Atlanta on a flight from Baltimore, said, “It’s one thing to worry about terrorists, and another thing to worry about maintenance.”

Either way, the crash “could not have occurred at a more critical time in the history of the aviation industry,” said Marianne McInerney, executive director of the National Business Travel Assn. “You hate to say this, but we’re all hopeful this is a mechanical occurrence.”

Investors took no chances, and promptly sold stocks of airlines, travel agencies and lodging companies amid fears that the crash might further depress the travel industry, or at least derail its gradual post-Sept. 11 recovery.

Shares of American Airlines parent AMR Corp fell $1.64 to close at $16.49, or 9%, even though AMR is considered to be one of the healthier operators in an industry that has suffered major losses.

“Today’s news comes at a difficult time for the nation, for the airline industry and for American Airlines,” AMR Chairman Donald Carty said. “We will only all feel comfortable [about flying again] when the investigation is complete.”

AMR, the nation’s largest airline company and a leading U.S. carrier to Latin America and the Caribbean, lost $414 million in the three months ended Sept. 30, a record quarterly loss for the Fort Worth-based concern. Two of its jetliners, along with two United aircraft, were hijacked and used in the Sept. 11 attacks. However, AMR had more than $2.4 billion in cash on hand as of Sept. 30.

How well the national psyche holds up regarding air travel is another matter. After Monday’s crash, several passengers waiting to board a Delta Air Lines flight from LAX to New York’s JFK Airport said they had concerns about flying--but most decided to board.

“I’m going if there’s a flight. I want to go home,” said Jay Robinson, a 25-year-old New York native. Referring to Flight 587, he said, “I’m hoping it’s not something like what happened Sept. 11.”

Ron Cyger of Los Angeles, also said he was planning to follow through with his vacation plans. “We’re going to have a great time,” he said. “We made it here to the airport on L.A. freeways, and that was the most dangerous part of our trip.”

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Staff writers Carla Hall and Terence Monmaney in Los Angeles, Lynn Marshall in Seattle and Edith Stanley in Atlanta contributed to this report.