Despite Travel Woes, El Toro Plans Proceed

As airports across the country postpone expansions in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Orange County is moving ahead with a new airport on the unaltered assumption that demand for flights will double in the next 20 years.

The Board of Supervisors will vote Tuesday on final approval for a commercial airport at the former El Toro Marine Corps base, designed to become the second-largest airport in Southern California.

The plan would double Orange County’s air travel capacity by 2010 and more than triple it by 2020. John Wayne Airport handled about 7.8 million passengers last year; nearly the same number of Orange County travelers used Los Angeles or Ontario international airports, according to a recent LAX passenger study.

The El Toro vote comes as the airline industry struggles to regain passenger confidence. Demand for travel at 11 airlines nationwide dropped as much as 45% in the last half of September, according to the Air Transport Assn. By the end of 2001, the overall passenger count at LAX could fall 7% from last year.

Industry woes appear to have bolstered El Toro opponents’ argument that Orange County won’t need another airport in the next 20 years. Airport foes hope to ask voters in March to replace airport zoning at the base with plans for an urban park and university complex.

“Given the events since Sept. 11, Orange County should concentrate on many issues that are more important,” said Paul Eckles, executive director of a coalition of South County cities opposed to the new airport. “We have enough airport capacity in Orange County to satisfy our share of demand.”

But preserving the ability to build an airport at El Toro is necessary for the future, supporters said, even if there is a short-term slowdown in travel. Some type of service, especially cargo flights, they said, could be in operation at the base in the next five years.

El Toro “is a futuristic opportunity” beyond the next 10 to 15 years, said Bruce Nestande, president of Citizens for Jobs and the Economy. The group has backed the airport since 1993, when Congress voted to close the base.

“You have to preserve the option for the long-term demand so you don’t sit back 30 years from now and say, ‘Why did we give that up?’ ” Nestande said. “We’re talking about the next 50 years, not tomorrow.”

County officials had insisted that the new airport would open by 2005. But that was based on the property being turned over to the county by January 1999. The airport is at least three years behind schedule even if nothing else postpones it, including the March ballot measure and future lawsuits. The new opening date is now 2006 at the earliest.

Industry analysts say it could take five years for the airlines to recover from the Sept. 11 attacks. Beyond free-falling revenues are the billions of dollars’ worth of security upgrades required at the nation’s airports. Even before Sept. 11, airlines were struggling amid a disappointing summer marked by corporate cost-cutting and an economic slowdown.

Carriers in the next few years will replace routes only if demand returns, and there will be less frequent service between destinations, analysts said. That already is happening at outlying airports such as Ontario, where United Airlines dropped five daily flights from its schedule this month.

Until recovery is complete, airlines simply aren’t going to be eager to set up shop at a new, untested airport, where landing fees and passenger charges would be needed to back construction bonds, said Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.

Other problems plague El Toro, he said, including an inefficient design that could cause some flights to sit as long as an hour on the runway before being cleared for takeoff, according to a review by the Federal Aviation Administration. Another is a committed and well-funded airport opposition that has managed to delay key project approvals.

“I am not that optimistic about El Toro,” Kyser said. “On a scale of 1 to 10, I’d give it a 0.2 chance of being developed. There are just too many things out there that don’t speak of anything happening there soon.”

Other analysts agreed that the travel downturn will eliminate near-term demand for more runways and airport space. But they also agreed that demand will rebound and could come back stronger in Southern California, an area that relies heavily on travel. That would add pressure for another Orange County airport.

“It is hard to say if we will see the explosive growth of the past, but in Southern California, the demand for leisure and business travel has been enormous,” said Russell L. Goings, a senior vice president for West Coast operations of First Albany, which provides financial consulting for airports across the country.

“Long term, we will need airport expansions,” he said.

Pent-up demand in Orange County will lead to the need for another airport, said Jessica Soltz, director of public and project finance for Fitch Inc., a Chicago-based bond rating agency whose clients include 64 airports nationwide. But that need isn’t imminent, she said.

“There is not the demand today,” she said. “You won’t be able to attract carriers to finance an expansion for a new airport. The airlines won’t be willing to pay for this right now.”

New 20-Year Projections Won’t Come Until 2004

Orange County planners estimate that $1 billion in airline-based revenue bonds must be sold to build the airport’s first phase, which includes a terminal to handle 8.9-million passengers. So far, the majority of county supervisors backing El Toro favors capping its size at 18.8-million passengers.

Regional planners with the Southern California Assn. of Governments have expected airport demand in Southern California--excluding San Diego County--to grow by about 3.9% a year over the next 20 years. That number, calculated before the Sept. 11 attacks, takes regional passenger traffic from 89 million in 2000 to 158 million by 2020.

In the last 10 years, the number of airport passengers has grown by about 4.3% a year, according to SCAG. Since 1960, air travel in the seven-county SCAG region has at least doubled every 20 years.

Agency officials said recently that despite the fallout from the terrorist attacks, they won’t revise their 20-year projections until 2004. By then, the effects on the industry will be known and a new set of 20-year projections can be adjusted accordingly, said Hassan Ikhrata, SCAG’s program manager for planning and analysis.

Even so, SCAG has projected that El Toro will handle 30-million passengers by 2020--substantially more than supervisors are prepared to accept. If Orange County restricts the airport’s size, “we’ll have to go back to the drawing board,” Ikhrata said.

Estimates for Orange County’s share of regional airline demand were disputed before the attacks. There has been little consistency in determining how many airline passengers the county generates because surveys are infrequent and analyzed differently.

For example, a February 2000 report by the Los Angeles World Airports estimated that Orange County travelers using LAX accounted for 16.2% of total airport passengers--a share that would drop to 14.6% in future years.

This year SCAG’s airport consultant, Citigroup Technologies, estimated that Orange County passengers accounted for 17.7% of the region’s total passengers. They revised the figure in August to 23.6%, after recounting travelers who left homes in Orange County but stayed overnight near LAX.

El Toro airport activists have accused SCAG and LAX officials of interpreting airport figures to address political agendas rather than establish accurate passenger counts.

LAX officials, critics charge, have downplayed Orange County’s share of passengers to better justify an LAX expansion plan--which has been shelved.

Conversely, SCAG has been accused of inflating the county’s share to help promote the need for an airport at El Toro.

Foes of an El Toro airport argue that Orange County’s population growth in the next 20 years will be meager compared with other regions. Estimates are that the county will add 385,000 people--or 13.5%--by 2020. Other areas, including Imperial, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, will experience growth rates of between 60% and 90%, according to estimates.

Three former military air bases--March, Norton and George--have been converted to commercial use in the Inland Empire in the last five years, said Eckles of the anti-El Toro coalition.

“These airports are more than capable of handling all the additional aviation traffic demand locally and regionally,” he said.

SCAG planners counter that population is just one of many factors that contribute to airport demand, including the number and type of jobs and disposable income. Given that criteria, Orange County residents are four times more likely to travel than people from other areas, SCAG’s Ikhrata said. That shouldn’t change because of the Sept. 11 attacks, he said.

“Orange County has high-value jobs, we have tourism, we have a lot of discretionary travel,” said Nestande, of the pro-El Toro group. “We have a population that travels. Orange County is truly a destination for national and world travelers.”