The Crime Rate Rebounds

In keeping with the law of gravity, what goes up must come down. In tracking Orange County’s crime statistics, the reverse also holds true. What had been going down for almost a decade has gone up.

It’s not a welcome development. But neither is it a surprise.

Some law enforcement officials and experts, aware of the changing economy and county demographics, expected the increase.

Crime grew nearly 10% in the county’s largest cities the first six months of this year, according to new figures released by the state Department of Justice.

Violent crime increased, with killings increasing from 15 to 24 and robberies rising 13%. Vehicle thefts soared 29%. Nearly 900 more cars were stolen by June this year than in the same six-month period of 2000. The stolen-car rate jumped 55% in Santa Ana.

Gang activity is also on the rise in Santa Ana. There were 10 gang-related killings in the first nine months of this year.

That’s twice as many as all of last year. But it’s still far less than a decade ago, when gang killings in Santa Ana hit their peak with 48 slayings. The city’s total crime rate is up 20% as of last month.

The possible causes for the increased crime rate are more obvious than ways to reverse the rising trend. The economy has a direct impact. Historically, the formula is simple: the more unemployment, the more crime. In the 1990s, jobs were plentiful, and the booming business climate helped keep crime down.

The county’s changing demographics are another factor. Criminologists note that men in their late teens and early 20s are most likely to commit crimes. There was a decrease in that age group in the 1990s, and the crime rate took a reactive dip. As that younger population started to increase, it went up.

Possible reasons being cited for the increased gang activity are the growing number of gang leaders out on parole and back on the streets--and the loss of federal and state grants that has forced cities like Santa Ana to sharply cut back the size of its gang suppression units and operations.

With more gang activity, however, there should be more police activity. The joint law-enforcement operation teams and tough prosecution that were so successful in getting gang members behind bars in the ‘90s must be reemphasized and beefed up.

Teenage diversion and after-school programs need to be expanded to try to steer youths away from gang membership. More job training and other programs for parolees can help cut down the number of repeat offenders.

The rising crime rate is cause for concern. But it’s also a reminder that the fight against crime is not just a job for police. It’s a continuing battle that demands constant support from parents, public officials and the community.