Split in S. Africa Opposition May Give ANC Wide Power

A surprise split late last week in this country’s official opposition could significantly alter regional politics by thrusting the ruling African National Congress into power in a longtime opposition stronghold and giving it nationwide dominance, analysts said Monday.

The New National Party, the successor to the party responsible for apartheid, said Friday that it was suspending its membership in the Democratic Alliance, the country’s main political opposition. That has raised concerns about the alliance’s ability to hold on to power in Western Cape province.

The uncertainty is compounded by the possibility that an alliance between the New National Party and the ANC will oust the smaller Democratic Party from government in Western Cape. That would pave the way for a ruling-party-led coalition in Western Cape and on the Cape Town City Council, and would give the ANC control over all nine of the country’s provinces.

Analysts said the ANC’s prospective political monopoly would undermine the quest for vibrant opposition politics in South Africa.

The fate of the Democratic Alliance--an amalgamation of the Democratic Party, the former National Party and the lower-profile Federal Alliance--could be further jeopardized in Western Cape if the national Parliament decides to allow public representatives to change their political affiliation without losing their seats.

If such legislation passes, some analysts anticipate an exodus of moderate New National Party politicians to the ANC, with extremist members sticking with the Democratic Party.

Last week’s split is expected to trigger a flurry of special elections around the country as New National Party members who won legislative seats on a Democratic Alliance ticket vacate their posts.

The alliance currently has 107 seats on the City Council in Cape Town, South Africa’s legislative capital. Of those, 37 are aligned with the Democratic Party and 70 with the New National Party, while the ANC has 77 seats. A coalition of the ANC and the New National Party would severely undercut the Democratic Party.

“One serious blow to the DP is that it is likely to lose the Western Cape province, and [it] would love so much to have at least one province where it can govern and present itself as an alternative government to the ANC,” said Dumisani Hlophe, a political analyst at the Johannesburg-based Center for Policy Studies.

The Democratic Alliance “had an opportunity to display notions of good governance in the Western Cape,” said Ebrahim Fakir, a senior researcher at the Institute for Democracy in South Africa, based in Cape Town. “It could have served as a flagship for their ability in government, but unfortunately it failed.”

The alliance’s cohesion has been under severe strain in recent months. The strife came to a head when Marthinus van Schalkwyk, the leader of the New National Party, fell out with the alliance leader, Tony Leon, over Leon’s insistence that the mayor of Cape Town resign after revelations that he interfered with an opinion poll on the renaming of streets.

Breakup of Alliance Called ‘Shameful’

Leon said Friday that the New National Party’s decision to break ranks with the alliance and consider becoming part of the ANC government must “surely be the greatest and most shameful capitulation in South African political history.” He called the move “an inexcusable betrayal of the people of the Western Cape.”

But for the predominantly black ANC, forming a coalition with the traditionally white- and mixed-race-dominated New National Party would be a strategic victory, analysts said. The ANC has been trying to win support among Afrikaners, or South Africans of Dutch descent.

Such a coalition could also lead to greater racial unity in South African politics, these observers said. But others warned that the ANC should approach any cooperation with the New National Party with caution.

“There is a widespread perception that this is a survival tactic of the NNP,” said Hlophe, expressing doubt that any coalition would go beyond cooperation in Western Cape. “It’s not a matter of principles. This is a party clinging to dear life.”

“The ANC will have to be very careful, no matter how things pan out, that they don’t compromise their ideological integrity,” Fakir said. “That is what has endeared them to voters.”

Fakir said that any confederation would have to depend on the New National Party’s unequivocally committing itself to the ANC’s program, which aims to reduce poverty and promote racial equality and democracy.

New National Party Plans Major Changes

Van Schalkwyk said Friday that the New National Party intends to transform itself into a party for the new South Africa, a process that will include a name change.

The Democratic Alliance “is on the road to nowhere, and we don’t want to go nowhere,” he said. “We believe in the future of the new South Africa, unlike the Democratic Party. We don’t get perverse pleasure to see the country failing.”

Analysts said that any legislative action to allow for political defections is unlikely soon. The ANC is approaching such a move carefully because it could backfire.

Some ruling party officials have expressed concern that such a law could allow members of the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions, who were elected on an ANC ticket, to also go it alone.

“We’re in a period of suspended animation,” Fakir said. “We don’t know what might happen.”