Job Gains Expected for Orange County

Orange County employment will grow in 2003, but the rise in home values will slow, according to an economic forecast released Tuesday by Chapman University.

Chapman economists predict that the county will see its nonfarm payroll employment grow by 1.6%, or 23,000 jobs. That’s a far cry from the late 1990s, when payrolls were expanding by more than 3% a year. But it would represent a solid gain from this year, as the county is expected to end 2002 with virtually no employment growth.

Gains are expected in services, trade, construction and some portions of the county’s manufacturing sector, which has shed nearly 17,000 jobs since its pre-recession peak.

However, Orange County job seekers still will find it tough going for the next several months, as most of the job gains are not expected to materialize until the second half of 2003.

Meanwhile, the Chapman forecast predicts that the scorching rise in home values in Orange County -- where annual appreciation has hit double digits in four of the last five years -- will cool significantly in 2003.

Although interest rates remain near historical lows and inventory is tight, Chapman University forecasters say the slowdown in employment growth over the last year is expected to damp housing demand in 2003.

The forecast calls for resale housing prices in Orange County to increase 2% on average next year, compared with a projected 12.7% surge in 2002.