Elections in Kenya May Put Voting Process to the Test

Elections here are nearly two weeks away, but the son of President Daniel Arap Moi already has won a seat in the House of Representatives without a single ballot being cast.

Last week, Gideon Moi was declared the winner in the Rift Valley province, which his father has represented for 47 years. His victory came after three opposition candidates dropped out of the race. The junior Moi and his rivals deny that they struck any deals. But many observers say the challengers’ sudden withdrawal was consistent with the reputation of the ruling Kenya African National Union, or KANU, to score easy victories by paying off opponents.

As this East African nation approaches what many say is the most important election since its 1963 independence from Britain, people here no longer are talking about whether KANU will lose but whether it will resort to bribery, violence and wide-scale ballot-rigging to remain in power.

A poll paid for by U.S. taxpayers revealed last week that KANU presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta, Moi’s handpicked successor and the son of the nation’s first president, trails Mwai Kibaki of the opposition National Rainbow Coalition, or NARC, by nearly 50%. The 78-year-old president, who has ruled Kenya for nearly a quarter century, is constitutionally barred from seeking reelection.

“There is absolutely nothing KANU can do to stop this opposition wave,” said John Githongo, who heads the local chapter of Transparency International, an international anti-corruption watchdog group. “It’s in their nature to rig, and they will try, but rigging to overcome such a vast deficit might not be enough.”

David Makali, director of local think tank Media Institute, agreed. “Within KANU, there is already a realization that [the election] cannot be won.”

The East African, the region’s most respected newspaper, reported last week that KANU was resigned to losing the presidential race and was trying to use a $40-million war chest to “induce defections” and win a majority in the 210-seat parliament.

Opposition candidates say the ruling party has been using other illegal tactics to achieve its goal. Kenyan police this month formed a special squad to investigate allegations that ruling party candidates have been buying voter identification cards for between $4 and $6 -- more than 50% of Kenyans earn less than $1 a day -- from opposition supporters to ensure that they won’t be able to vote.

“To poor people, it’s having some money to buy food,” said Gabriel Mukele, vice chairman of the Electoral Commission of Kenya, which will oversee the Dec. 27 elections.

Mukele said the commission had referred several reports of bribery and voter-card buying to police. The cheating drew a rebuke from Roman Catholic Bishop John Njue. “You should not sacrifice the destiny of the country to the whims of the stomach,” Njue told hundreds of parishioners at a church service.

Kenya’s two previous multiparty elections -- in 1992 and 1997 -- were marred by allegations that KANU officials stuffed ballot boxes and instigated bloody ethnic clashes to remain in power. Human rights groups say party leaders stoked violence that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people and the displacement of 400,000 others.

Recently, the international community has pressured Moi’s government to hold free and fair elections. Sources said President Bush and Secretary of State Colin L. Powell told Moi in a meeting in Washington this month that a smooth transition was the greatest legacy he could leave.

Kenya, with 30 million people, remains an important country in the U.S.-declared war on terror. On Nov. 28, the country suffered its second major terrorist attack in four years when suicide bombers blew up an Israeli-owned beach resort near Mombasa, killing at least 16 people and injuring dozens more. In 1998, more than 200 people were killed when suspects linked to the Al Qaeda terror network blew up the U.S. embassies here in Nairobi and in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Bush is expected to recognize Kenya’s role in the war on terrorism when he visits Nairobi next month to open the new U.S. Embassy. By then, Kenya is expected to have a new president, its third since independence.

Through candidate Kenyatta, Moi is hoping to extend KANU’s domination. His decision to pick Kenyatta, who failed to win a seat in the last parliament, was a departure from his previous election strategy, analysts say. Kenyans generally support candidates belonging to their ethnic groups. For 24 years, Moi, who belongs to the Kalenjin ethnic groups from the Rift Valley, has held power by convincing other minorities that they needed to band together against the larger Kikuyu and Luo tribes.

Moi was hoping that Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, would draw massive support from the tribe, said Gichira Kibara, head of the Center for Democracy and Governance, a policy group. Kenyatta, a 1985 Amherst College graduate who helps run his family’s vast business empire, has been pitching himself as the candidate of change even though his party has been in power since 1963.

But he “has failed to excite the traditional opposition base or to convince the smaller tribes that he stands for their welfare,” Kibara said. About 68% of the 3,000 voters interviewed for a poll sponsored by the Washington-based International Republican Institute said they planned to vote for Kibaki. The poll, paid for by the U.S. government, also found that 21% of respondents said they would back Kenyatta.

The poll indicated that opposition NARC could win parliamentary elections by a landslide. About 65% responded that they would vote for NARC’s candidates, compared with 22% who said they would support KANU.

Despite failing to win a majority of the vote in the two previous elections, Moi’s party has managed to retain power -- thanks to Kenya’s fractious opposition -- by building coalitions. But so far, opposition leaders and several former government ministers who defected from KANU to protest the selection of Kenyatta have remained united under the 71-year-old Kibaki, who lost the last two elections to Moi.

Kibaki was recently in a London hospital recuperating from injuries he suffered this month when a matatu, or minibus taxi, crashed into his sport utility vehicle. Analysts say the opposition’s campaign could be boosted after thousands of Kenyans lined the streets to welcome him home this weekend.

Huge crowds have attended rallies across the country to support Kibaki and opposition candidates. Many Kenyans, who are experiencing the worst economic recession since independence, say they are hungry for change after years of corruption, mismanagement and poverty.

“All is possible without Moi,” members of the crowd usually chant in Swahili.

Some critics worry KANU will not hand over power if the opposition wins. But Kibara, the policy group leader, and others say that could be disastrous.

“Kenyans have so far restrained themselves, thinking that once Moi exits the scene they will have a chance to improve their lives,” Kibara said. “If KANU refuses to concede, they will see that there is really no hope. Violence will be certain.”

In a speech Thursday at a Nairobi stadium, Moi promised to hand over power to the winner and called on Kenyans to accept the results. “If we fail this test,” he said, “we would be seen as just another African failure.”

Kibara and others said there were recent signs that Moi was being conciliatory and preparing for a possible opposition victory.

On his return trip from Washington, the Kenyan leader stopped in London to visit Kibaki and wish the opposition candidate a speedy recovery, a nicety rarely seen in Kenyan politics.

In Nairobi, Moi recounted to reporters how Bush, Powell and other U.S. officials asked him how Kenyans would vote in the forthcoming poll. “I answered that democracy will be at play,” he said. “I said Kenyans will pick the party with good leadership.”