Exit That Could Turn Into a Messy Power Play

Beleaguered Trent Lott has one wild-card advantage in his struggle to hold onto his Senate Republican leadership post: There is no consensus about who should succeed him.

Instead, if the Mississippi Republican is forced to relinquish his title as Senate majority leader, a messy succession struggle is likely among ambitious senators with very different claims to power.

The scramble could pit a senator who is the darling of the party’s conservative wing -- Don Nickles of Oklahoma -- against a colleague who is the White House favorite, Bill Frist of Tennessee. Waiting in the wings are two conservative insiders, Sens. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who already hold GOP leadership posts.

The competition, if Lott falls, will force Republicans to rethink what kind of leader they want as the party scrambles to end the imbroglio over his recent comments, which seemed to endorse segregation. At stake is whether and how the GOP can repair the damage many believe has been done to President Bush’s push to remake the party’s image as one of “compassionate conservatism” that is more welcoming to minorities.

Pragmatic political calculations will not be the only factor determining a potential successor to Lott. Leadership decisions invariably hinge on more inscrutable factors of personal loyalty and competing ambitions in the Senate’s insular world.

“It’s not regional, it’s not ideological,” said Grover Norquist, a conservative activist who is close to congressional GOP leaders.

Referring to the number of Republican senators in the new Congress, he said: “It’s 51 guys who like and hate each other for reasons you and I don’t remember.”

The issue is expected to come to a head in an emergency meeting set for Jan. 6. Nickles called for the meeting to reconsider whether Lott should retain the leadership job, but neither he nor any other senator has begun openly campaigning to replace him.

“All the relatives are standing around the bed waiting for the life support to be cut off,” said one Senate Republican aide. “No one wants to talk about the inheritance.”

Lott may yet resign his post before the Jan. 6 meeting; a source close to him said Tuesday that as of now, he lacks the 26 votes needed to remain leader.

Lott’s future was thrown into turmoil by his comments, at the 100th birthday party for Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-S.C.) Dec. 5, in which he suggested that the country would have been better off if Thurmond’s segregationist presidential campaign in 1948 had triumphed.

Lott, 61, has apologized repeatedly, saying he did not mean to endorse segregation. But the criticism leveled at him -- by both Republicans and Democrats -- has undercut the momentum the GOP picked up in the November elections, which gave them control of the Senate and expanded their majority in the House.

Bush has distanced himself from the controversy -- and Lott. He harshly criticized Lott for his remarks, but he has not called on him to resign his leadership job.

Still, GOP sources say that by failing to come to Lott’s defense, the White House has made it clear the president would prefer another leader. The White House has also let it be known that its preferred candidate is Frist.

“That helps; it sends a signal that there is an alternative the White House feels comfortable with,” said a Senate Republican aide. “Whether or not Sen. Frist agrees he has a role to play is another question entirely.”

Frist has gained political stature recently because he headed the GOP’s 2002 campaign committee. As the Senate’s only physician, he also was in the spotlight during last year’s anthrax scare on Capitol Hill.

Frist, 50, is a conservative but is seen as more in sync with Bush’s efforts to reach out to minorities. During a conference call of Senate Republicans on Friday to discuss Lott, a source said, Frist raised strong concerns about the toll the furor was taking on African American attitudes toward the GOP. He expressed his concerns so forcefully that Rep. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), who next month will move into Thurmond’s Senate seat, asked whether he was arguing that Lott should step down; Frist said no.

Republican sources said it is not clear that Frist, who is thought to harbor presidential ambitions, would want to be Senate leader. One of Frist’s liabilities, strategists say, is that he is relatively new to Congress -- he was first elected in 1994 -- and untested as a Senate leader.

McConnell, 60, is more clearly endowed with those kinds of insider skills. He was just elected assistant Republican leader -- the No. 2 post -- and is considered a sharp legislative tactician.

McConnell has been making calls to fellow Republicans to shore up support for Lott, not to challenge him. In the Friday conference call -- which followed a Lott news conference -- McConnell warned that if Lott was forced from the leadership, he might also quit the Senate. Depending on the timing of such a move, Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, a Democrat, could replace Lott with another Democrat. The Senate’s party breakdown then would be 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats and one independent, who typically votes with the Democrats. That would mean the GOP majority would hinge on Vice President Dick’s Cheney role as the chamber’s presiding officer.

Many GOP activists are close to Nickles, 54, who has cultivated ties with both social and fiscal conservatives. He has spearheaded the party’s pro-business efforts -- such as fighting increases in the minimum wage -- and is a leading proponent of tax and spending cuts.

He is a longtime Lott rival, and he had considered challenging him for the leadership job in the past.

Before news surfaced Sunday of his call for the meeting to reconsider Lott’s position, Nickles phoned Bush’s chief political advisor, Karl Rove, as well as Lott to notify them of what he was doing.

Despite that effort to prevent the White House and Lott from being surprised, Nickles might be hurt by a backlash to his call for the meeting.

“A lot of people are not happy with Nickles,” said a moderate Republican who asked not to be named. “He got out in the open so quickly for personal reasons.”

Another potential candidate for leader is Santorum, who is chairman of the Senate Republican Conference. Although it ultimately was his decision to schedule the meeting that Nickles sought, Republicans say he has been trying to rally rank-and-file members to Lott’s aid.

Santorum has close ties to social conservatives; he frequently takes the lead in pushing antiabortion legislation. But at age 44, he may be considered too young to rise above more-senior Republicans.

One element all of the possible successors have in common: They are more worrisome to Democrats, who would rather see Lott stay in power with his wounded image.

“Each one would be better [for the Republicans] than Lott,” said an aide to a senior Senate Democrat. “With Lott, every day can be a holiday. You never know what he is going to do.”