Bush’s Support May Boost Japan’s Leader

As President Bush headed for South Korea on Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was left where he was before their summit: struggling with a bad economy, a looming banking crisis, a vulnerable reform program and critics increasingly emboldened in parliament and on the street.

Aware of Koizumi’s recent popularity decline, Bush did his best during the three-day visit to protect his counterpart. The president soft-pedaled economic issues, left his senior economic team at home and focused on the U.S.-Japan security alliance.

When the attention did shift to the economy, Bush was extremely gentle in public. He drew on symbolism by visiting the Meiji Shrine and by referring in a speech to great leaders of the post-1867 Meiji restoration--a time of wrenching change as Japan embraced modernization--to suggest that Koizumi’s nation can repeat those actions. At times, Bush’s comments had an almost cheerleader-like quality. “I’m confident of this man’s leadership ability, I’m confident of his strategy and I’m confident of his desire to implement this strategy,” the president said during a news conference.

But more than leadership, strategy and desire are required to turn around Japan’s protracted banking and economic ills, analysts say. To begin with, Japanese prime ministers are politically weaker than U.S. and British leaders. This places far greater emphasis on consensus. And with Koizumi’s popularity tumbling and strong old-guard interests on the ascent, any commitment to act seems further away than it did six months ago.

The markets showed signs of expecting more out of the summit. As Bush left town, the yen weakened and the benchmark Nikkei fell 2.44% on Tuesday, closing at 9,847.16, down 246.09 points, after rising for several days. At midday Wednesday, the index was virtually unchanged.

Bush made a point during the visit to call Koizumi trustworthy, a friend, a personal advisor, unwavering, steadfast, supportive, bold, energetic, determined, humorous and another version of Seattle Mariner star Ichiro Suzuki, who can hit anything you throw at him.

Some Japanese found Bush’s oral support a bit over the top for a nation in which public displays of emotion tend to be muted. “I think he praised Koizumi too much,” said Mitsuo Takii, professor of international relations at Obirin University. “I’m sure his voice doesn’t represent the views of U.S. industry.”

There’s little doubt Bush genuinely likes Koizumi and enjoys strong rapport with the Japanese leader. But there are serious political calculations going on as well.

Koizumi, even in his politically wounded state, represents the best U.S. hope for change here, given the lack of alternatives in the major parties. Pushing too hard for change could undermine Koizumi’s position by making him look weak. And it’s unclear how much U.S. pressure would work in Japan’s current political environment.

This arguably spurred the administration’s decision to give Koizumi its full support in hopes of infusing him with strength. In addition to its impact on the global economy, a weak Japanese economy could undercut Bush’s longer-term efforts to oppose terrorism and develop a missile defense system.

Bush’s backing may give Koizumi a modest short-term public boost. It also may bolster the prime minister’s resolve to weather the tough fight against entrenched economic and political interests. But most see little chance it will keep Koizumi’s powerful political enemies on the defensive.

“The summit was a very good performance,” said Shinichiro Kawasaki, analyst with the think tank Daiichi Life Research Institute. “But it won’t really change anything.”

In his speech Tuesday before parliament, Bush also sought to inspire change through empathy and leadership by example. He cited the early 1980s, when the United States was losing its competitiveness and was weighed down by a savings and loan crisis.

But the skeptics were never far from view. When Bush extolled Koizumi in parliament as a great reformer, several lawmakers laughed openly.

Some believe the Bush message was too gentle. Japan has embraced and endured upheaval at key junctures, they point out. But these actions generally were preceded by enormous outside pressure that helped break the domestic logjam, notably during the Meiji restoration and the post-World War II period.

“Unfortunately, our only hope is foreign pressure. We never seem to learn,” said Atsuo Mihara, an independent economic critic. “Bush really should have delivered a much stronger message on the economy. It’s in disastrous shape, as anyone involved in the markets knows, and I’m just afraid Koizumi will miss the message.”

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Hisako Ueno in The Times’ Tokyo bureau contributed to this report.