The Great GOP Hope: Independents?

The race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination is tightening, and “independent voter strategy” has become the political buzz. Can voters who decline to state a party preference affect the outcome of the GOP primary on March 5, and possibly rescue the party from near-permanent minority status? Where will independents land in November?

In 2000, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down California’s “blanket primary,” an electoral free-for-all in which voters, regardless of party affiliation, could hop around the ballot to select any party’s nominee for any office. A new law created the modified closed primary, in which decline-to-state voters, usually labeled independents, can vote in the primary of one, but only one, of the parties that have agreed to let them participate.

The blanket primaries in 1998 and 2000 taught us that independents, like most California voters, gravitate toward the fight that counts. UC Berkeley political scientist Bruce Cain further analyzed their voting behavior and found they also tend to vote for moderates and popular incumbents.

According to a recent survey by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), the governor’s race has begun to generate interest among Independent/Other voters, defined in the survey as “likely voters ... not affiliated with a major party.” Fifty percent indicated they planned to vote in the March 5 primary, up 16% over the last two months.

Wooing independent voters is a key element of the campaign strategy of moderate Richard Riordan, running hard against two conservative opponents for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. The former L.A. mayor contends that if the California GOP doesn’t reach out beyond its conservative base, the party will “turn from an endangered species into an extinct species.”

The PPIC survey indicates that Riordan’s message may be producing results. He draws 36% of the independent vote, compared with 23% for political newcomer financier Bill Simon and 13% for Secretary of State Bill Jones. Furthermore, Riordan’s currently running neck-and-neck or better with Gov. Gray Davis and could give the unpopular incumbent the fight of his life in November.

But other survey numbers offer less encouragement to Riordan. California’s independents look more like closet Democrats than budding Republicans and, for the March primary, they appear to be moving toward Democratic contests, lured perhaps by the prospect of making a difference in down-ballot races.

Ideologically, 40% of independents call themselves very or somewhat liberal, compared with 48% of Democrats and only 8% of Republicans, according to the PPIC survey. Conversely, only 5% of independents and 3% of Democrats say they’re very conservative, compared with 22% of Republicans. A greater percentage (37%) label themselves “middle of the road” than do either Democratic (31%) or Republican (28%) likely voters.

On social issues, independents tend to mirror the Democratic electorate, with one glaring exception: guns. For example, seven out of 10 Californians believe that “government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion.” Roughly eight of 10 Democratic and independent likely voters agree, as compared with 54% of Republicans. Similarly, independents are closer to Democrats on environmental protection, gay rights and public services for illegal immigrants. But independents (58%) are closer to Republicans (70%) in their opposition to new gun-control laws, and that won’t help Riordan in the primary.

Independents are split over whether they’ll vote in the GOP (23%) or the Democratic (27%) primary. But as the election draws closer, the interest in mixing it up on the Democratic side is increasing (up 16% since last December), while interest in the GOP race remains unchanged. Given the centrist tilt of independents, Riordan will miss those potential primary votes.

The draw of independents to an uncontested Democratic gubernatorial primary seems counterintuitive, until you look down-ballot to the legislative and congressional contests.

Reapportionment created virtually safe seats for the two major parties, which means the real battles are in the primaries, and California Journal counted only 33 meaningful races in 153 legislative and congressional districts. Within those contests, it appears Democrats have more of the electoral action--24 competitive primaries, compared with 17 for the GOP.

If too few independent voters participate in the GOP primary to have an impact, they can become a potent wild card in the November race. In general election match-ups, the PPIC survey shows Riordan and Davis splitting the independent vote, while Davis beats both Jones and Simon by at least a 12-point margin. That’s a daunting obstacle for Republicans. Democrats account for 45% of the state’s registered voters, while Republicans are only 35%. To win, Davis doesn’t need the bulk of independents (14.5% of the electorate) if he holds his Democratic base. A Republican, on the other hand, not only has to motivate his party’s faithful, but also must sway most independents and some disaffected Democrats.

For Riordan, holding the party faithful could prove quite difficult. That is the danger in his strategy of aiming his primary message at the general electorate. He not only risks losing GOP conservatives in March, he also risks de-energizing, or disaffecting, the base, and suppressing GOP turnout in November.

A foreshadowing of that scenario occurred at the recent California Republican Party convention, where Riordan encountered downright hostility at times. Former Gov. George Deukmejian and several former state party leaders announced they would not support Riordan if he became the Republican nominee. In other words, if Riordan comes out of the primary as the party’s bloodied and weak standard-bearer, the GOP may not unite behind him.

At a recent bipartisan dinner that brought together campaign operatives and media types, an informal poll was taken to predict the winner of the GOP gubernatorial primary and of the November general election. Riordan got the primary nod and Davis was tapped for November. Four years ago, a similar exercise predicted that Dan Lungren would beat the projected Democratic nominee, political neophyte Al Checchi, in the general.

“Now, I’m worried,” said one Davis operative.

Republicans should be more than worried. Independents are not enough to broaden their base. Conservatives really don’t want it broadened. Moderates are chafing at the GOP’s “die-hard conservatism.” And pragmatists anxiously contemplate the fate of their schizophrenic party come November.

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Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a contributing editor to Opinion, is a senior scholar at the School of Policy, Planning and Development at USC. She’s also a political analyst for KCAL.