Unlikely Olive Branch Takes Root

Israelis and Palestinians are locked in their deadliest battle in decades. No political initiative has graced the horizon for months. The fighting distracts and threatens to undermine Arab regimes throughout the region. Nearly everyone--Arab and Jew--is exhausted.

Into such bleak circumstances floats a proposal by Saudi Arabia that is gaining astonishing momentum--even though it is vaguely worded, starkly simple and not particularly creative. Headlines in newspapers from Jerusalem to Cairo and beyond trumpet it; politicians and analysts debate it. The European Union envoy detours to Jidda to hear more, and President Bush bestows his praise.

The formula, which emerged as nothing more than a trial balloon in the New York Times, offers Israel recognition and normal economic, cultural and political relations with the entire Arab world in exchange for the Jewish state’s withdrawal from all land it captured and occupied in the 1967 Middle East War, including the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Diplomats had hoped for more details of the plan when Saudi Ambassador Fawzi Shubukshi spoke before the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday. However, he launched into a tirade against Israel that indicated how difficult it might be to turn the broad strategic proposal into a plan that could be implemented.

The much-touted proposal would seem to have little chance to prosper. As eager as Israelis are to enjoy diplomatic normality with their Arab neighbors, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has adamantly refused to cede more than a portion of the West Bank and Gaza Strip to the Palestinians.

An aide to Sharon reiterated that position Wednesday and said that any future Israeli government would be similarly inclined.

Yet the proposal has captured the imagination of many people in the region, in part because of the rare involvement of powerful Saudi Arabia and in part because they are so desperate for any initiative that might staunch the flow of blood in the Holy Land.

“The public wants to grab at straws,” said Galia Golan, an Israeli political scientist and veteran peace activist.

Efforts to end 17 months of violence that has claimed more than 1,100 lives have failed repeatedly. On Wednesday, a Palestinian woman apparently blew herself up at an Israeli military checkpoint, killing herself and wounding three policemen. It was only the second time a woman has carried out a suicide bombing in the uprising. She was one of five Palestinians and one Israeli killed Wednesday.

Heavy fighting raged early today as Israeli forces attacked targets in refugee camps near the West Bank cities of Nablus and Jenin. At least seven Palestinians were killed, and Israeli troops were moving deeper into Jenin, Palestinian officials said. Palestinian gunmen shot dead an Israeli soldier and wounded two others, the Israeli army said.

U.S. Touting Plan

Throughout the escalating bloodshed, the U.S. government has abdicated its mediator role and remained largely on the sidelines.

But the Saudi plan, a senior State Department official said, is “important and interesting. And we’re talking it up in the region, including with the Israelis.”

The promise of diplomatic recognition for Israel and the signal to Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat that peaceful negotiations are still possible are encouraging incentives, the official said, but cautioned: “This is not a settlement. It has to be reached through negotiations, after a rebuilding of trust, which has to come after an end to the violence. So we’re still where we were before; we just have a better idea of what’s down the road.”

And U.S. officials acknowledge that the idea of Israel withdrawing to its pre-1967 borders is probably a nonstarter.

Still, beyond sheer desperation, there are reasons for skeptical hope, Golan and others said. Saudi Arabia, which enjoys unique moral and political authority in the region, has stepped forward in a way it had been reluctant to do.

Admittedly, the Saudis are acting in part to improve their own image in the U.S. after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, given that 15 of the suspected hijackers were from the kingdom. Despite Shubukshi’s harsh speech, other Saudi officials have appeared to be sending a message to Israel that peace is possible by ceding the captured land--a message that could drive a further wedge between Sharon and the more dovish members of his government.

The Saudi vision emerged as an idea relayed to New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, the desert kingdom’s de facto ruler. The Saudis began calling it an “initiative” only after it was clear that there was no strong Arab opposition to the plan. At the core is the historical concept of land for peace.

Abdullah held out the prospect that Israel could become integrated into the region, play host to 20 Arab embassies in West Jerusalem and enjoy cultural and economic ties with all its neighbors. Only Egypt and Jordan have diplomatic ties with Israel, but it is a “cold peace”: Neither country has had an ambassador in Israel since shortly after the current conflict erupted in September 2000.

Previous peace efforts have failed to include guarantees that the Arab world would formally recognize Israel.

“You have to pay Israel in Arab currency, and this is it,” said Abdel Moneim Said, director of the Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, a government-funded think tank in Cairo.

“The magic word here is normalization,” said Emad Shahin, a professor of political science at American University in Cairo. “That’s the incentive for Israel.”

Palestinians Have Doubts

Palestinians, who welcomed the Saudi proposal, quickly worried that Israel was seizing the normalization part of the formula and disregarding the part about having to withdraw from occupied territories, “focusing on the skin and ignoring the stuffing,” as Hafez Barghouti, editor of the Palestinians’ Al Hayat al Jadida newspaper, wrote in a column Wednesday.

Palestinian politicians also accused Israel of trying to use the initiative as a way to sit down with the Saudis, securing a tacit recognition, before making any territorial or political concessions. Sharon, after first dismissing the Saudi statement, indicated through aides that he would be happy to talk with Saudi leaders to “clarify” it.

Whatever Abdullah’s motivation might be--image burnishing or regional stability--Saudi Arabia does hold sway in the Gulf Cooperation Council, a six-member union of oil-rich Arab states that will follow the Saudi lead. In addition, Saudi Arabia, as home to the two most sacred sites in Islam, has moral authority throughout the region.

A similar proposal was made last year by Libyan officials, who wield less influence, at a closed-door meeting during an Arab League summit in Amman, Jordan. Officials appointed a committee to study the plan--essentially killing it.

Abdullah plans to take a more detailed version of what he is proposing to next month’s Arab League summit in Beirut.

The Saudi proposal does not offer a blueprint for how Israel and the Palestinians are to conduct negotiations. It does not mention the most difficult, deal-breaking elements of the conflict: how to share, divide or otherwise handle Jerusalem and how to resettle refugees.

The failure to mention the traditional Palestinian demands, such as the return of refugees, prompted harsh opposition Wednesday from Islamic groups in Jordan and the Gaza Strip.

And there is no guarantee that all Arab states will go along. Though the Saudis have no great love for the Israelis, countries such as Lebanon, where about 300,000 Palestinian refugees live, and Syria are even more hostile. Syria has claim to the Golan Heights, which Israel also occupied in 1967 and which presumably would be part of the package.

The Saudis, in short, are offering a vast end-of-conflict vision--but not saying how to get there.

“The faster the initiative of Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah gathers momentum, so grow the doubts about the substantive questions that his proposal does not answer,” noted Zvi Barel, a commentator in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz who specializes in regional Arab affairs.

But the absence of detail may ultimately be the key to success.

“I see very great importance in this incentive,” Israeli President Moshe Katsav said Wednesday. “The fact that there would be normalization between the Arab world and Israel--this is certainly a dramatic step.”

As president, Katsav, a member of Sharon’s right-wing Likud Party, is only a figurehead. But he is known for his ability to read the mood of the public, and his endorsement has put pressure on Sharon.

But the key to the future of Abdullah’s aspirations for the region probably lies in whether the Bush administration can be reengaged.

“The bottom line is, where is George W. Bush on this?” said Israeli strategic analyst Joseph Alpher. “This proposal can create a lot of stir and noise, but it can’t work unless the Americans get behind it.”

Wilkinson reported from Jerusalem and Slackman from Cairo. Times staff writer Robin Wright in Washington contributed to this report.