Shiite Leader Says Iraqi Opposition Is Open to U.S. Help in Toppling Hussein

Iraq’s main opposition forces have begun coordinating their military efforts and would welcome U.S. air support in their bid to topple President Saddam Hussein, according to the leaders of one of the groups.

Speaking from a well-guarded compound in Tehran, where he has been in exile for more than two decades, Shiite opposition leader Ayatollah Mohammed Bakr Hakim said last week that his organization opposes a full-blown U.S. invasion but supports the idea of a mission in which massive bombing paves the way for local forces to fight on the ground.

“We don’t need an invasion,” Bakr Hakim told The Times, in comments that may provide a glimpse into the mind-set of his benefactors in the Iranian regime. “You must distinguish between an American invasion and [an] attack--the Iraqi people can protect themselves if there is no heavy artillery or weapons of mass destruction in the hands of the regime.”

He said his group has been working with the military leaders of the two main Kurdish factions in northern Iraq, which make up the strongest opposition force inside the country. U.S. officials have acknowledged that the Kurdish opposition would probably play a substantial role in any effort to overthrow Hussein.

Bakr Hakim, president of the Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, said his organization hadn’t been contacted by Washington--an assertion disputed by State Department officials--because, he said, America is reluctant to approach a group based in Iran. In his State of the Union address earlier this year, President Bush grouped Iran, Iraq and North Korea into what he termed an “axis of evil.”

Officials with SAIRI, as the group is widely known, said the United States is overlooking a potentially valuable ally in the battle for Baghdad. They dispute the apparent U.S. assessment that Iraqi opposition forces lack a credible military capability and argue that with appropriate backup, a united Kurdish and Shiite advance would win the support of the Iraqi people and overthrow Hussein.

“You see, we are sure, from inside Iraq, if the balance of power is broken by bombing or whatever, you will see what happens,” said Sami Mahdi, director of international relations for SAIRI. “Even the security forces will join us.”

For years, Washington had no contacts with the group, in part because of concern over its close ties with and financial dependence on the Iranian regime as well as its religious orientation, according to U.S. officials. Republican as well as Democratic administrations wanted to ensure that Iraq’s secular dictatorship wasn’t replaced by a religious dictatorship--especially one with close ties to theocratic Iran.

Nevertheless, top State Department officials meet regularly with SAIRI representatives in London--and over the years have met with representatives in Washington, State Department officials said. Both the Clinton and Bush administrations also tried to meet with Bakr Hakim when he traveled outside Iran, but he has refused the overtures, department sources said.

Strength Hard to Gauge

It is difficult to know for sure what is happening inside Iraq, especially as Baghdad and Washington engage in a war of wits that may be a prologue to a military confrontation. For that reason, it can’t be said with any certainty how well armed Bakr Hakim’s group really is, though he says he has thousands of fighters on standby in the north and south of Iraq, and in Iran.

More important, it is difficult to gauge just how much public support the group has in Iraq, where about 70% of the population is Shiite--although the rulership is Sunni Muslim.

One diplomatic source said the Iran-based group is well organized but does not have widespread support in the south, where the majority of the Shiite population lives, and may not represent the secular Shiite community in Iraq.

U.S. officials said it appears that other groups, both old and new, have begun to emerge within the Shiite community and that SAIRI may be panicking over its waning influence.

“It’s losing traction rapidly among its own people,” said an administration official, who requested anonymity. “Hakim is running scared, and so is Iran, because its primary instrument is suddenly having a popularity crisis. SAIRI is now on the defense within the Shiite community.”

Yet even while Bakr Hakim’s credentials within the Shiite community are uncertain, his remarks serve as a valuable barometer for what Iranian officials are thinking--or at least what they want to project to the world.

When tempers were hotter, in the days immediately after Bush made his “axis of evil” remark, Tehran--and Bakr Hakim--flatly rejected the U.S. playing any role in removing Hussein.

But while Iran still officially opposes U.S. military action in Iraq, the Interior Ministry announced this month that it wouldn’t block Bakr Hakim from talking with the United States. That was broadly taken as a nod and a wink from a regime that could easily shut down any communication between the two.

Iran’s plans could prove crucial to U.S. efforts at winning support--or at least neutrality--from neighboring countries as well as for maintaining regional stability if Hussein falls. America’s Sunni Muslim allies, such as Saudi Arabia, are in particular concerned that Shiite-controlled Iran could try to annex the south of Iraq, or indirectly control it through political and religious influence.

Other countries, such as Turkey and Syria, are opposed to any fracturing of Iraq that would lead to an independent Kurdish state, a prospect that could destabilize their own efforts to control Kurdish populations within their borders.

But Bakr Hakim’s comments suggest that Iran is prepared to take a hands-off approach--which it says is what it did with Afghanistan--neither assisting Iraq in the event of an offensive against Baghdad nor seeking to further its regional ambitions afterward.

Bakr Hakim said he wanted to assure the world community that his group supports a united Iraq and that there is no intention to create an Islamic republic on the model of Iran.

“We have three major problems in Iraq that we would like the next government to solve,” Bakr Hakim said. “One is a dictatorship; we want to get rid of this. The second is sectarian discrimination; we want to get rid of discrimination. The third is to get rid of discrimination based on race against Kurds.”

Bakr Hakim’s openness about working with the U.S. against Hussein comes at a time when Iranian society is deeply troubled over how to handle the Iraqi situation.

On the one hand, Iranians of all political stripes, from hard-liners to communists, are offended that Bush would lump their country with Iraq. Many people here feel it demonstrates a deep misunderstanding of Iran. And there also is a lot of lingering anger and bitterness over the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, which left hundreds of thousands dead on both sides.

The backlash over Bush’s comments notwithstanding, it appears that Iranians are prepared to at least look the other way should Iraq be targeted, if for no other reason than many people here are worried about being next on the U.S. hit list of military targets.

And there is a broad sense here that each of Iran’s political factions--including the conservatives and reformists--would gain some internal political clout from improved ties with America.

“There is a lot we can do for America. We have a militia here. We can help,” one Iranian official said, referring to Bakr Hakim’s militia, known as the Badr Brigade, after a pivotal war in early Muslim history. “But not unconditionally.”

Iranians Miffed at U.S.

Iranians across the political spectrum say they feel they’ve been cheated by Washington, which they say has shown no gratitude for Tehran’s support during the Afghan war or for its immediate condemnation of the Sept. 11 attacks. That is another reason there is some reluctance, as they see it, to help out with Iraq.

Stepping carefully, Iran has insisted that the Iraqi opposition it hosts can pursue its own agenda, suggesting a level of independence that has not always existed. At one time, for example, an Iranian official served as the president of the Shiite group.

But now, Bakr Hakim said, the organization has a formal structure. It has a 100-member general assembly made up of expatriates, who elect a central committee charged with selecting the president.

The group also has three military organizations, Bakr Hakim said, including a classic-style army based in Iran, guerrilla forces in northern Iraq and undercover forces in southern Iraq. The group said it has training facilities in Iran but declined to say where it gets its funding or how many troops it has.

The group claims that its forces are trained well enough to be able to hold post-Hussein Iraq together and to protect the people. SAIRI has been one of four opposition groups, including the Kurds and the Iraqi National Accord, that meet regularly in London and have begun to challenge the U.S.-financed Iraqi National Congress for leadership of the opposition.

Still, when it comes to weapons, the group’s leaders acknowledge that although they are armed, they would have to rely on the Iraqi military’s joining them--a prospect analysts have said is far from certain.

Bakr Hakim and his followers arrived in Tehran 23 years ago, in the waning days of the shah’s regime. After the collapse of the Pahlavi dynasty and the rise of the Islamic Republic, the Iraqi opposition was allowed to settle in Tehran, much the way Baghdad has played host to the Iranian opposition militia, which calls itself Moujahedeen Khalq.

Bakr Hakim says he and his supporters see a chance to fulfill ambitions dashed after the 1991 Persian Gulf War and the U.S. refusal to support their uprising.

The ayatollah, who wears religious robes and the black turban indicating he is a descendant of the prophet Muhammad, said he is still bitter about the way the United States turned its back on the Shiites in the south who risked their lives in an effort to overthrow the regime immediately after the Gulf War.

He said his followers liberated 14 provinces before Hussein managed to regroup and crush the uprising. The U.S. and Britain have since enforced “no-fly” zones over the Kurdish north and Shiite south, ostensibly to protect the population from attack

“George Bush the father, he made a big mistake against the Iraqi people,” Bakr Hakim said. “We hope George Bush the son does not make the same mistake.”

Mahdi, the SAIRI international relations director, said his group’s troops are better disciplined and better trained this time around but that there is even more at stake now for opponents of the regime.

He said that sources inside Iraq have reported that Hussein, in a bid to stave off an uprising in the south, has ringed southern communities with barrels of chemical weapons and charges that, if detonated, would send deadly clouds of smoke into the air. Mahdi said Hussein has also dug trenches between communities to isolate people.

“The United States has time to coordinate this,” Mahdi said. “They should not hesitate to discuss any point with us for the future. [But] they should respect our people, and our will.”

Times staff writer Robin Wright in Washington contributed to this report.