Only Disaster Could Derail Armstrong Victory Parade

He won’t say it, because he doesn’t have to.

Lance Armstrong essentially clinched his fourth Tour de France a week ago in the Pyrenees, following the template he has traced in previous Tours with explosive back-to-back climbs during stages 11 and 12 on La Mongie and Plateau de Beille.

Armstrong, whose advantage over Spain’s Joseba Beloki was 2 minutes 28 seconds after Plateau de Beille, has more than doubled it since to 5 minutes 6 seconds and has only to stay upright to win this stepping stone of a 2002 Tour.

If he isn’t tripped before Sunday’s laps on the Champs-Elysees, the 30-year-old Texan, a testicular cancer survivor, will become the fifth man to have won at least four Tours. As befits an athlete whose story always has been backlit by unusual drama, Armstrong would bid for his record-tying fifth Tour title next year during the race’s centennial edition, slated to begin and end in Paris.

The waning days of this Tour--even along the most picturesque and historic raceway in the Alps--have felt a little like pages ripped from a wall calendar, the faces of stage winners flipping by with little import on the race. Dario Frigo, the Italian Tacconi team rider whose baby face was sullied in last year’s Tour of Italy drug scandal, was Thursday’s pin-up, taking the rolling, 88-mile Stage 17 from Aime to Cluses in the final sprint.

The lone exception was the fearsome Mont Ventoux stage Sunday in Provence, a stage Armstrong would have liked to win. He also figures to ride fully loaded in Saturday’s individual time trial in the Beaujolais wine country, having lost the Tour’s previous time trial to Colombian Santiago Botero.

Armstrong’s final margin may not be far from his other three Tour victories, in which the average gap was just under seven minutes.

Yet his distance from the field seems wider. In the absence of Germany’s Jan Ullrich, a prospective challenge from tandems on two Spanish teams-- Beloki and Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano of ONCE, Botero and Oscar Sevilla from Kelme--never materialized despite Armstrong’s efforts to talk it up.

Gonzalez de Galdeano did wear the yellow jersey for six days and Botero won two stages. But Beloki, third to Armstrong the last two years, was firmly pinned every time he attempted to wrestle Armstrong in the mountains, and Botero couldn’t string together enough good days to constitute a true threat. Sevilla dropped out of the race this week due to illness.

Beloki candidly conceded the race after Ventoux.

Just as significant as the quality of his rivals is the strength and consistency of Armstrong’s current U.S. Postal Service team.

With the exception of Tour rookie Floyd Landis, who never seemed to recover from his struggles in the Pyrenees, and Benoit Joachim, who has been somewhat invisible, Armstrong’s supporting cast has been Oscar-worthy.

Roberto Heras redeemed his subpar 2001 Tour with the eye-popping tractor-beam ride that helped tow Armstrong up La Mongie. Jose Luis Rubiera has been a metronome on the pedals. George Hincapie, best known for his ability in the flats, has been surprisingly strong in the mountains.

Barring accident, Heras and Rubiera are certain to finish in the top 25, although Postal has not managed to find a way to get Heras a stage bouquet that would have been an ideal symbolic thank-you.

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Highlights from the 17th stage on Thursday:

Stage: An 88-mile stretch from Aime to Cluses, featuring four tough climbs. It was the last mountain stage of the Tour.

Winner: Italy’s Dario Frigo, in 4 hours, 2 minutes, 27 seconds.

How Others Fared: Three-time champion Lance Armstrong retained the overall leader’s yellow jersey despite finishing the stage in 24th place, 4:36 behind Frigo. Armstrong’s lead over his nearest rival, Spain’s Joseba Beloki, was unchanged at 5:06.

Quote Of The Day: “I sleep pretty good at night with the lead that we have,” said Armstrong of his overall lead, which should see him take a fourth consecutive title on Sunday.

Next Stage: A hilly 109.4-mile trek from Cluses to Bourg-en-Bresse.

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*--* Overall Standings (After 17 Stages) Rider (Time) 1. Lance Armstrong, U.S. (72 hours, 50 minutes, 25 seconds) 2. Joseba Beloki, Spain (5:06 behind) 3. Raimondas Rumsas, Lithuania (7:24) 4. Santiago Botero, Colombia (10:59) 5. Jose Azevedo, Portugal (12:08) 6. Gonzalez de Galdeano, Spain (12:12) 7. Francisco Mancebo, Spain (12:28) 8. Roberto Heras, Spain (12:54) 9. Levi Leipheimer, U.S. (13:58) 10. Carlos Sastre, Spain (14:49)

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