U.S. Packs Carrots for South Asia

The Russians and Chinese haven’t been able to do it. Neither have the other Asian nations meeting this week in Kazakhstan. So what can the United States bring to the crisis between India and Pakistan to ensure that the two nuclear powers don’t go to war?

U.S. officials were facing that question after Russian President Vladimir V. Putin failed Tuesday during an Asian security summit in Kazakhstan to persuade Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to hold face-to-face talks to head off a possible war over the disputed region of Kashmir.

Top U.S. diplomatic and defense officials are heading for the South Asian region to take up where Putin left off. They will wield America’s unparalleled influence as the world’s sole superpower--and bank on the fact that neither side can refuse to listen. That clout will be backed up with hard intelligence about what’s really happening among forces on the ground and alarming projections about what could lie ahead if war erupts, according to Bush administration officials.

But when Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld make stops on the volatile subcontinent over the next five days, they’ll also be asking both countries to make tough choices--and holding out carrots if they cooperate.

Their strongest message will be for Pakistan, where both will begin their missions. Armitage, known for his blunt talk and intricate knowledge of South Asia, intends to lay it on the line Thursday with Musharraf, U.S. officials say. He’ll call for an immediate end to infiltration by Muslim extremists across the cease-fire line in Kashmir and a clampdown on the staging areas they use for attacks on targets in the Indian-controlled portion of the region.

Promises of Gains

In exchange, the U.S. will tell Musharraf that he stands to make gains--not necessarily in Kashmir but on other fronts.

“He’ll have a chance for a new position in the world, as leader of the moderate Muslim world, and for new economic assistance through continuing debt relief ... that we can offer him,” said a senior State Department official who asked to remain anonymous.

“If we can work with him on ending support for violence, then that’s the kind of country we can do business with. So this is a chance for Pakistan to achieve its own goals and in the process make itself a respected member of the international community,” the official said.

U.S. officials saw a glimmer of hope Tuesday.

“We do have some indications that Pakistani actions go beyond words,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.

But he added, “At this point, we are not prepared to say that we have seen the cessation [of extremist activity] that we are all looking for and that President Musharraf has promised.”

On their second stops, Armitage and then Rumsfeld will urge India to show restraint while giving Pakistan a chance to rein in militants and cut their access to Kashmir. Once that process shows significant progress, India should reciprocate by de-escalating its military readiness in the area, the U.S. officials will advise.

The two countries have a total of about 1 million soldiers positioned along the 1,800-mile border.

Armitage and Rumsfeld will concentrate on these delicate initial steps while outlining possible follow-up measures if the two nations adhere to efforts to defuse hostilities, the senior State Department official said Tuesday.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell has indicated that the U.S. will try to prod the two Asian nations into a face-to-face political dialogue on the future of Kashmir, a region over which they have already fought two wars. India does not want the United States or any other party to intervene in an attempt to mediate the issue, while Pakistan is anxious to have Washington play a direct role, as it has in the Middle East.

“There are various sensitivities. The Indians do not want us to be a mediator, but they want U.S. help to facilitate their discussions with Pakistan,” said the senior State Department official. “We would like to see a dialogue with all issues on the table, and we might even be able to contribute some ideas.”

For the U.S., the hardest task--and the key to ensuring that tensions don’t quickly flare up again--will be getting Musharraf to hold the line against militants.

In a nationwide speech heralded by U.S. officials as courageous, Musharraf pledged in January to end extremist activities both at home and in neighboring regions. And Pakistan followed up with the arrest of at least 2,000 Islamic militants in what was its biggest crackdown in decades.

An Effort Not Sustained

But the effort was not sustained, many extremists were released, and raids on Indian territory in Kashmir began again this spring. The Muslim militants are seeking independence for the predominantly Islamic region or the union of the Indian-controlled section with Pakistan.

Regional experts say Musharraf must be told that he can no longer take half-measures--and that the only way out of the crisis is if he takes the same tough stance toward militants in Kashmir that he did against pro-Taliban extremists along his nation’s border with Afghanistan.

The U.S. needs to clarify how Pakistan’s failure to fully crack down on extremists will also fail to lead to a resolution on Kashmir, according to Michael Krepon of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Washington think tank.

“This policy is failing Pakistan. It’s not helping Kashmiris or rescuing Kashmir from India’s grasp.... If it continues, it could spark a nuclear exchange and wipe out millennia of Muslim accomplishments,” Krepon said.

He added, “And if Pakistan doesn’t cross the nuclear threshold and they find themselves in a conventional war, it will lose that war, leaving the army discredited and the country destabilized. Finally, if Pakistan fights a war over Kashmir, it will fight it alone.”

If Pakistan cracks down on the extremists, however, Krepon said the Bush administration can use its leverage with India to encourage a dialogue on Kashmir, as well as resumption of diplomatic ties and of trade and transportation links vital to both sides.

On an issue assuming increasing prominence, the U.S. could also encourage India to take action on human rights concerns in Kashmir. Key Indian police units, some made up of former Kashmiri militants who changed sides, have been behind a good deal of the abuse in the region, Krepon said. These units could be disbanded and individual soldiers accused of rapes and other violations prosecuted as a way to show that India takes basic rights seriously, a key demand by Pakistan.

U.S. Confidence

U.S. officials believe that India and Pakistan are anxious to find a face-saving way to avoid a full-scale conflict and that neither wants to use its nuclear weapons.

“I do have confidence that the leadership in those two countries are fully respectful of the power of the weapons and the importance of their being managed and controlled in a way that reflects that fact,” Rumsfeld said Tuesday at a Pentagon briefing.

Rumsfeld said he will also focus on the impact of the Indo-Pakistani hostilities on the U.S.-led campaign to eliminate the Al Qaeda terrorist network and its leaders. Pakistan’s priority has shifted from its western border with Afghanistan to its eastern border with India.

Rumsfeld acknowledged Tuesday that the South Asian crisis has been a distraction from the war on terrorism. But he also expressed confidence that war between India and Pakistan can be avoided.

“My guess is, and certainly my hope is, that two countries as important as they are will figure out ways to get from where they are to where the world would like them to be--which is in a less tense situation,” Rumsfeld said.

Times staff writer John Hendren contributed to this report.