U.S. Close to Proposing Interim Palestinian State

WASHINGTON -- President Bush is expected to call for an interim Palestinian state in a speech next week--possibly as early as Tuesday--after final deliberations this weekend on his vision for breaking the deadlock in the Middle East peace process, according to U.S. and Middle East officials.

But Bush’s proposal for an interim state, basically occupying an area no greater than the territory now controlled by the Palestinian Authority, will depend heavily on an end to violence against Israel and possibly other steps that Bush’s foreign policy team will spend the weekend debating, U.S. officials say.

The idea behind an interim state is to generate hope among the Palestinians and to undermine the belief among them that violence against Israel is the only means to move to eventual creation of a larger, permanent state, administration officials say.

Creating the formal mechanisms of an interim state--including a constitution, national assembly and judiciary--also could weaken the decisive role Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat has played and disperse power among others, the officials say. That is a major goal for both Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

The U.S. officials, who are well placed to know administration deliberations on the Middle East, all requested anonymity when discussing the sensitive issue.

After Bush’s anticipated announcement, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell is expected to travel to the troubled region to consult with Israelis, Palestinians and moderate Arab leaders in advance of an international conference in July, according to U.S. officials and Middle East envoys in Washington. A possible site for the conference is Turkey, the officials say.

Although the broad strokes of an administration peace proposal have emerged after six weeks of talks between Bush and Middle East leaders, the president’s foreign policy team still has key differences to settle before he takes what would be one of his boldest steps in foreign policy.

The most contentious debate concerns how this new approach to the peace process will unfold--and the split in Washington mirrors to a certain degree the opposing positions in the Middle East.

Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres on Thursday endorsed the concept of an interim state. And Sharon, who earlier accepted the principle of an eventual permanent Palestinian state, has not rejected the interim proposal. But Israel first wants a strict sequence of steps set up--beginning with strong action by the Palestinians to end suicide bombings and other acts of violence, according to Israeli envoys in Washington.

That would be followed by major reforms of the Palestinian Authority, the current governing structure. The final step would be an interim state.

“No right-minded Israeli official is going to agree to give more political power to the Palestinian Authority ... when that body is as it is today. It sponsors terrorism, is untrustworthy, and it doesn’t live up its commitments,” an Israeli diplomat said. “No one will agree to an interim or provisional state that is a mirror of what it is today.”

The debate over what conditions or requirements should be imposed on the Palestinians to achieve an interim state is “strenuous,” said a well-placed administration official. “How onerous those requirements might be is not clear.”

Israel has strong backing in its position from Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, as well as from congressional leaders, according to U.S. officials.

But the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Morocco--backed by the 22-nation Arab League--have pressed hard for simultaneous progress on security measures and creation of an interim or permanent Palestinian state. Powell and CIA Director George J. Tenet have argued that the two phases should to some extent go hand in hand.

The Arabs have also called for a timeline on the negotiation process to put pressure on both sides to resolve differences and provide hope for Palestinians that the political issues will not be indefinitely in limbo. During talks with Bush last week, Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak called for a final settlement within two to three years.

Cheney, Rumsfeld and some members of the National Security Council are dubious about a timeline. Powell, who has borne the brunt of appeals from Arab leaders, also has concerns, but he wants some mechanism to keep both sides focused on a final settlement and avoid yet another deadlock.

“There’s an inherent aversion to timelines, and Powell shares it,” said a State Department official. “There are lots of folks who consider a timeline a built-in formula for failure. It dares both sides not to comply with it.”

The borders of an interim state presumably would be the territory the Palestinians now occupy--about 40% of the West Bank and two-thirds of the Gaza Strip. Issues left undetermined would be the borders of a permanent state, the status of Jerusalem--which both sides claim as their capital--and the return of Palestinian refugees.

Bush is also expected to propose that the international conference set up three committees to pursue discussions on political, security and economic issues. The committees could include not only Israelis and Palestinians but also top officials from moderate Arab regimes.

A host of other issues are up for debate this weekend, including what Bush should say about Jewish settlements in areas Palestinians claim and a possible new assistance package to Israel to address its economic woes and provide an incentive to cooperate, U.S. officials say.

In the region, the idea of an interim state has already sparked controversy and skepticism on both sides. The Palestinians were the first to challenge the idea.

“We cannot accept any more interim and temporary solutions. We must reach a final solution,” said Saeb Erekat, a Palestinian peace negotiator and Cabinet minister, in an interview printed Friday in the Palestinian newspaper Al Quds.

Key Israelis also might balk. Although Sharon has accepted the idea of an eventual Palestinian state, the governing Central Committee of his Likud Party has opposed it. Sharon also wants negotiations only after Arafat is confined to a ceremonial role.

“It is the idea of the prime minister to reach an arrangement step by step,” Communications Minister Reuven Rivlin, a Sharon confidant, said Friday. “This [U.S.] plan would face a lot of problems within Israeli public opinion, because if it happens, it may force the evacuation of some settlements. That could cause an ideological dispute between left and right.”

The advantage a U.S. plan would hold for both sides is that it would come from neither of them. Arafat, with his security forces in disarray, might be tempted to accept an American proposal as a way out of a deadlock with Israel that has defied solution for nearly two years, analysts in the region said Friday.

Sharon too is feeling pressure as the Israeli economy suffers under the security burden imposed by the fight with the Palestinians.

Powell publicly broached the idea of an interim state in an interview this week with the Arab world’s leading newspaper, Al Hayat, which is based in London. He used the term “provisional” to describe it, but the administration has opted for an interim state to make clear that such an entity would be considered a “way station” en route to a permanent state and final resolution of the half-century-old conflict, said the well-placed administration source.

A provisional state sounds too open-ended, said the source, adding: “Interim captures the flavor we’re looking for.”

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Wright reported from Washington and Curtius from Jerusalem.