L.A. Marathon Duel Isn’t So Clear-Cut

A duel of champions. That’s how organizers of the Los Angeles Marathon have billed the men’s division of the race that will held for the 17th time Sunday.

Benson Mbithi, the 2000 champion, versus last year’s winner, Stephen Ndungu.

And the race might well turn out that way.

But don’t be surprised if neither Kenyan is the first man to cross the finish line of the reconfigured 26-mile 385-yard course, which will start at Grand Avenue near Second Street and finish on Hope Street just north of Olympic Boulevard.

No man has won consecutive titles in the L.A. Marathon.

Only one, Art Boileau of Canada in 1987 and 1989, has won two men’s titles.

More significant, the marathon--any marathon--is an extremely unpredictable race. Of all the track and field events contested in the Olympic Games or World Championships, few have had as many gold medalists who were not among the pre-meet favorites as the marathon.

The longer the race, the greater the opportunity for things to go wrong.

A runner who is experiencing an off day on the track, in a race such as the 1,500 meters, can often overcome that condition by employing better tactics than his or her competitors.

An off day is more difficult to overcome in the marathon because it can lead to an elite runner running several minutes slower than usual.

In contrast, elite marathoners who run the best race of their lives can cut two or three minutes off their previous best.

All of which means that any man in Sunday’s race who has run 2 hours 15 minutes or faster could conceivably contend for the title in a race that Mbithi and Ndungu expect to be won in the range of 2:09 to 2:10. Runners with notable accomplishments on the track also have made some smashing debuts in major marathons over the years.

That makes Julio Valle of Mexico worth watching Sunday.

Valle won the 10,000 meters in the Mount San Antonio College Relays in 1998, and his career bests of 28:14.38 in that event and 13:33.84 in the 5,000 are faster than anybody else in the field.

Those facts don’t make Valle a favorite, but they bode well for him if he is among the leaders in the final miles of the race.

Bill Burke, president of the L.A. Marathon, might have gotten a little carried away earlier in the week when he said that the winner of the men’s race might break 2:07 if the weather is right Sunday.

A redesigned, flatter course will no doubt lead to faster times than in previous years, but a sub-2:07 clocking would make the winner only the 15th man in history to break that barrier.