Simon’s Conservative Image Could Play Into Davis’ Hands

The struggle to define Bill Simon Jr. started just hours after the polls closed Tuesday night. Is he a former prosecutor and successful businessman who can pull the state from its fiscal morass and fix its broken school system? Or a rich, right-wing extremist who opposes abortion rights and gun control?

The battle over which portrait of Simon voters embrace will be crucial in determining whether Democrat Gray Davis becomes the first California governor since 1966 to lose a bid for reelection.

If Davis persuades swing voters that Simon is an extreme conservative, the governor stands a better chance of overcoming his own anemic poll ratings. In his victory speech Tuesday, Davis began that effort. He called Simon “out of touch” and cited their views on abortion as a key difference between them.

If Simon convinces voters that he’s a capable, mainstream fiscal manager with a soft spot for education, he may be able to take votes away from Davis, who faces a $17-billion budget shortfall and a skeptical public.

Simon’s main task is to stop Davis from focusing the race on hot-button social issues, where Davis’ views are more in line with those of the state electorate.

“If they can pull that off--and it’s easier said than done--maybe they can make it competitive,” Democratic strategist Bill Carrick said. “If they don’t, they’re going down. Big time.”

To many voters, Simon, a first-time candidate for public office, is largely a blank slate. That could help the chipper Pacific Palisades businessman appeal to voters dissatisfied with Davis’ record on education, energy and the economy.

But Davis, a tenacious veteran of statewide campaigns, has already displayed his willingness to define a rival candidate on his own terms. The governor’s $10-million television ad campaign against GOP primary hopeful Richard Riordan effectively ruined the former Los Angeles mayor’s image, especially among Northern Californians, before Riordan was able to define himself.

Davis is open about his plan to wage an aggressive, perhaps brutal campaign. Last month, he warned potential GOP challengers: “You’re in for the fight of your life.”

Even before the polls closed Tuesday night, Garry South, the chief architect of Davis’ reelection campaign, was dismissing Simon as “a garden-variety right-winger.”

Indeed, Davis’ investment in the Republican primary was made precisely because the governor and his strategists believed they would fare better against Simon than against Riordan.

“By appealing in the primary to the most conservative Republican voters, [Simon] has painted himself into a very tiny and ultimately untenable corner,” South said. “From all appearances, it looks more like Bill Simon is running for governor of Utah or Kansas than California.”

Simon described himself as “a conservative Republican” during the primary race. He touted his “A” rating by the National Rifle Assn. and his endorsement by Gun Owners of California.

He also promoted his endorsement by the California Pro-Life Council, a group that seeks to outlaw abortion. On Simon’s Web site, Pro-Life Council leader Brian Johnston says the GOP candidate “wants the government out of the abortion industry.”

In short, Simon faces a classic problem of a candidate in a hotly contested Republican primary: He appealed to the party’s conservative base to get the nomination, but faces a more moderate electorate in November.

On abortion, for example, two out of three Simon voters in the GOP primary want to outlaw the procedure, according to a Times survey of voters leaving the polls Tuesday. But among all California voters, only one in three want to ban abortion.

Simon’s advisors acknowledge he must adapt to the broader electorate, but say there’s precedent for such a move. They point to the 1966 governor’s race. Democratic incumbent Edmund G. “Pat” Brown interceded in the Republican primary to help a staunch conservative, Ronald Reagan, beat moderate GOP rival George Christopher. But in November, Reagan still tossed Brown out of office.

“You can change the names, and you can write the story already,” Simon consultant Sal Russo said.

Reagan, though, was far better known in California than Simon is. Reagan also faced a vastly different political climate, including campus riots and social upheaval that improved prospects for a conservative candidate.

Democrats point to more recent history to make the opposite point. In New Jersey, conservative Bret Schundler defeated moderate Bob Franks in the GOP gubernatorial primary last year, but was beaten by Democrat James E. McGreevey in the fall. McGreevey used Schundler’s opposition to abortion rights and gun control, along with his support of school vouchers, to undermine him, particularly with women and independent voters.

“Once you tie those three issues together for people, it defines the candidate as out of touch with mainstream values,” said McGreevey pollster Joel Benenson.

In 1998, Davis used the same tactic against then-Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, a conservative Republican.

Lungren overwhelmingly lost to Davis in the general election that year after a race in which Davis highlighted his rival’s views on abortion, tobacco, the environment and guns.

To offset the Davis attacks on social issues, Simon will take full advantage of a key supporter, Rudolph W. Giuliani.

The former New York City mayor--Simon’s boss when Giuliani was the Manhattan U.S. attorney in the 1980s--has appeared regularly with Simon during the primary campaign. As a moderate Republican who supports abortion rights and gun control, Giuliani, some consultants think, could blunt Davis’ attacks by vouching for Simon on those issues.

“Right now, Rudy Giuliani is Babe Ruth, John Wayne and the Beatles rolled into one,” said GOP consultant Ken Khachigian. “If Rudy Giuliani gives you the official Good Conduct pass for the campaign, that’s hard to combat.”

Giuliani will be in California this week and might campaign with Simon on Friday.

Still, Simon plans--to the extent possible--to avoid talking about abortion and guns. Instead, he will try to keep the campaign focused on issues such as his proposed tax cuts and education. Schools are a key issue for women and other swing voters; Simon’s first campaign stop this morning is at a Los Angeles school.

“He’s made it very clear he’s not running for governor to talk about social issues,” said Rob Stutzman, a state Republican Party spokesman. “You’ll see he’ll consistently talk about the issues that he wants to talk about.”

For Davis, one big problem ahead is the state’s projected $17-billion budget shortfall. He faces the painful choice of raising taxes--he has pledged only that he will not “advocate” a tax hike--or cutting popular programs.

“There is not one program he can cut that won’t hurt someone who has supported him--or an industry that supported him,” said political scientist Sherry Bebitch-Jeffe of USC.

In the Times Poll last month, Davis’ job approval rating was 47% among registered voters. For an incumbent seeking reelection, strategists consider anything under 50% to be within a danger zone.

Simon plans to focus relentlessly on Davis’ “failed leadership.” And on the stump, the novice Republican candidate has already displayed a knack for the same kind of strict self-discipline that has become a hallmark of Davis’ campaign style. “If there’s anything you should have learned about Bill Simon in this campaign, it’s that he is consistent,” Russo said. “What he says in one place, he says in another, and what he says one day, he’ll say another day.”