Talent Scouting May Become Elementary

In a salute to the NCAA tournament, here’s my annual mock draft of every amateur (European/salaried, NCAA/pure or whatever) in the world.

Personally, I’m with Billy Packer. None of the young guys are ready. No one was ready when everyone stayed in school the whole four years, so the youth thing is a mixed blessing for the NBA, not to mention a disaster for Packer’s NCAA.

Unfortunately, it’s not up to us but the youths, who routinely choose millions over an education. Go figure.

Not that it has slowed things down, but this year’s senior high school class is thin. Now everyone has lost their minds over a junior, LeBron James, who’d have to sue to get into the draft but has suddenly become the most heralded prep since Wilt Chamberlain, with Sports Illustrated putting him on the cover, Nike’s Phil Knight dropping in to court his parents and Shaquille O’Neal showing up at one of his games.

“What’s unusual,” an Eastern Conference general manager says, “is there’s no dissent among the people who see him. And I’ve talked to conservative NBA guys who hate the high school thing.”

Wait ‘til the conservatives learn the “high school thing” now means “everyone in high school.”

One team (at least) is tracking Sebastian Telfair, a 5-foot-11 sophomore from Brooklyn, supposedly the Next Big Thing After James.

Thanks go to the four GMs who helped me plus David Benezra of Recruiting USA and ESPN.com and former Clipper/Net Coach Don Casey, who’s just back from China and says Yao Ming ought to be No. 1.

1. LeBron James, 6-7, 210, junior, Akron (Ohio) St. Vincent-St. Mary High--Supposed to combine best parts of Kobe Bryant and Magic Johnson. No, really.

2. Jason Williams, 6-2, 195, junior, Duke--Some say he’s not really a point guard and takes bad shots. OK, and their point is? Coach Mike Krzyzewski turns him loose because he carries his team. Williams does everything well, except shoot, which he does really well. Think: bigger, more explosive Phil Ford.

3. Yao Ming, 7-5, 283, Shanghai Sharks--Looks like he’s coming. NBA guys containing their excitement because he’ll need time to adjust and may always be a finesse player. On the other hand ...

4. Qyntel Woods, 6-8, 225, sophomore, Northeast Mississippi College. A scout, sent to Booneville, Miss., in January, found colleagues from half the league on site. Admirers say he’s in the mold of (you’re kidding, right?) Tracy McGrady.

5. Mike Dunleavy Jr., 6-91/2, 220, junior, Duke--Once a scrawny guard, now a full-size NBA small forward. Fine passer, good shooter, son-of-coach feel for the game. Some scouts even mention (sober up) Larry Bird. Says he’ll stay.

6. Dajuan Wagner, 6-3, 200, freshman, Memphis--Hyped to alarming proportions, didn’t turn out to be Allen Iverson or Steve Francis but did improve. Says he’s staying, which is a good idea.

7. Amare Stoudamire, 6-9, 240, senior, Cypress Creek (Fla.) High--Some see OK skills, some see none, but, says a GM: “He’d be one of the toughest guys in our league right now.”

8. Drew Gooden, 6-10, 230, junior, Kansas--Athletic, puts up numbers. Will have to show he can stand in against bigger pros so it’s probably not a good idea to go around saying they look “fat and happy.”

9. Jared Jeffries, 6-10, 215, sophomore, Indiana--Second-best prospect Bobby Knight ever landed, after Isiah Thomas.

10. Chris Marcus, 7-1, 285, senior, Western Kentucky--Sat out most of season because of foot injury and never caught up, but has only to show he’s sound to move up. Not athletic but huge with a nice touch.

11. Chris Wilcox, 6-10, 230, sophomore, Maryland--Big, young, athletic, started season as a sub but came fast.

12. Kendrick Perkins, 6-9, 260, junior, Beaumont (Texas) Ozen High--Next prep widebody on the horizon. More like Eddy Curry than Shaq, but a GM says if he goes pro in ‘03, “He’d be in the top half of the lottery.”

13. Nikoloz Tskitishvili, 6-11, 210, Benetton Treviso (Italy)--A 19-year-old Georgian, supposedly in mold of (gulp) Pau Gasol.

14. Curtis Borchardt, 7-0, 230, junior, Stanford--Out of nowhere. Has to work on that body, but he’s a decent athlete, blocks shots and shoots (44% on three-pointers.) Ate Chris Marcus’ lunch in Thursday’s first-round meeting.

15. Emeka Okafor, 6-9, 240, freshman, Connecticut--Blocked five or more shots 11 times.

16. Carlos Boozer, 6-9, 280, junior, Duke--Not the next coming of Elton Brand but still a hard-working, full-sized NBA power forward.

17. David West, 6-8, 232, junior, Xavier--Smaller than Boozer but more skilled.

18. Marcus Haislip, 6-10, 230, junior, Tennessee---Late bloomer, athletic and strong, but unpolished.

19. Caron Butler, 6-7, 235, sophomore, Connecticut--Did juvenile jail time but straightened out. Tough, skilled small forward.

20. Kareem Rush, 6-6, 218, junior, Missouri--Projected lottery pick who had disappointing season, although he averaged 20 points and shot 41% on threes. Great athlete. Questions now are shot selection and toughness.

21. Sam Clancy, 6-7, 240, senior, USC--More athletic than your average human tree trunk. Very active, gets a lot of steals and blocks.

22. Frank Williams, 6-3, 205, junior, Illinois--Projected lottery pick, once compared to (yeah, right) Gary Payton. Opted to stay, although he may actually have left and just not told anyone. Takes over some games, coasts in others. May rise to the challenge but now a wild card.

23. Kirk Hinrich, 6-3, 180, junior, Kansas--Point guard who made 47% of his threes.

24. Frederick Jones, 6-4, 210, senior, Oregon--Athlete who got serious this season, averaging 19 points, 5.6 rebounds, shot 39% on threes.

25. Casey Jacobsen, 6-6, 210, junior, Stanford--Put up numbers when it became his team, but his position is manned by super athletes.

26. Dan Dickau, 6-0, 170, senior, Gonzaga--Point guard who made 48% of his threes.

27. James White, 6-6, 172, freshman, Florida--Major athlete whom the Gators broke in slowly. Apparently, it wasn’t slow enough because he’s musing about the draft.

28. Darius Songaila, 6-9, 245, senior, Wake Forest--Lithuanian who shoots and makes plays.

29. Jason Kapono, 6-7, 199, junior, UCLA--Stop me if you’ve heard this annually. Still improving, lacks athleticism but can shoot and pass, too.

Right there:

Dan Gadzuric, 6-11, 248, senior, UCLA--Big question is knees. Next is why he isn’t further along, but he’s athletic, plays hard and has a good shot at the first round.

Matt Barnes, 6-7, 230, senior, UCLA--Overshadowed but intriguing when he just slashed to hoop. Pros noticed when he started making threes (three for 25 as a junior, 39 for 87 as a senior.)

Melvin Ely, 6-10, 256, senior, Fresno State.

Antwain Barbour, 6-5, 180, sophomore, Wabash Valley (Ill.) College--Headed for Kentucky.

Carmelo Anthony, 6-7, 210, senior, Oak Hill (Va.) Academy--Headed for Syracuse.

Luke Ridnour, 6-2, 165, sophomore, Oregon.

Wayne Simien, 6-8, 245, freshman, Kansas--GM: “Future lottery pick.”

Chris Duhon, 6-1, 190, sophomore, Duke.

Troy Bell, 6-1, 170, junior, Boston College.

Juan Carlos Navarro, 6-4, 193, Barcelona FC (Spain)--He was star when Gasol was there.

Sani Becirovic, 6-5, 190, Kinder Bologna (Italy).

Chris Bosh, 6-10, 220, senior, Dallas Lincoln High--Headed for Georgia Tech.

Brian Cook, 6-10, 240, junior, Illinois.

Hilario Maybiner, 6-9, 240, Vasca de Gama (Brazil).

Darius Rice, 6-10, 205, sophomore, Miami.

Ryan Humphrey, 6-8, 235, senior, Notre Dame.

Steve Logan, 6-0, 200, senior, Cincinnati.

Juan Dixon, 6-3, 164, senior, Maryland.

Lonny Baxter, 6-8, 260, senior, Maryland.

Tayshaun Prince, 6-9, 215, senior, Kentucky.

Luke Walton, 6-8, 233, junior, Arizona--Great passer but has to become a good shooter, as opposed to making 28% of his threes, to be an NBA starter.

*

Faces and Figures

It was one thing for Sports Illustrated to pose Charles Barkley in broken shackles and chains to suggest how unfettered he was. It’s another--try deliberately manipulative--in light of O’Neal’s acknowledgement that he refused their request to pose first, which suggests SI has been running all over the country, looking for an athlete it could chain up. Looks like someone there is into shackles.... John Stockton turns 40 in a week, doesn’t dribble between his legs or make fancy passes and never got the fashion memo about short pants, so what’s he still doing here? Stockton just got his 15,000th assist, extending a record as likely as any to stand forever, with Magic second all-time--at 10,141. “He never puts himself in an awkward situation,” Utah Coach Jerry Sloan said. “There are lots of guys flying through the air trying to make passes. He’s always been a guy who looks at the floor from a little different perspective than everyone else.” ... With Michael Jordan out, Doug Collins turned the delighted Washington Wizards loose. “We’re not old,” said resurgent Courtney Alexander. “We want to run.” Unfortunately, the kids are 2-8 without Jordan, who keeps sending word he’ll return this season, perhaps just to keep their hopes up.... Trading for Penny Hardaway in 1999 and giving him a seven-year, $86-million contract was the Phoenix Suns’ first mistake, compounded two years later by trading Jason Kidd. In contrast, moving Hardaway enabled Orlando to start clearing the cap space that led to signing McGrady and Grant Hill. “People assumed that he [Hardaway] could still play at the level he once could, but that just wasn’t going to happen with all of the injuries he’s had,” Magic Coach Doc Rivers said. “I really think that’s affected him emotionally.... It doesn’t seem like it takes a lot to get him sideways.”

So much for the classy approach: Before returning to Phoenix, Kidd said he wouldn’t say anything negative (“That’s not me. There’s a lot of construction going on in Phoenix and I hope for the best for them.”) Then after he was booed and shot four for 18 in New Jersey’s loss, Kidd made an obscene gesture--to a heckler, he said, not the crowd--zinged the Suns’ owners (“I don’t work for the Colangelos. If I did, I’d probably quit.”) and was fined $5,000 by the league.... Knick lameness anecdote of the week: Coach Don Chaney last week mused how much Chris Webber might have helped them, although they didn’t even try to get him and aren’t expected to in the future, perhaps welcoming the chance to remind everyone he has no one like that.... Chaney also called Karl Malone a “dirty player.” Replied Malone: “He’s on borrowed time. Dead man walking.” ... The Charlotte Hornets may not have a slam dunk gaining approval to move to New Orleans. Said SuperSonic owner Howard Schultz: “When our fans in Seattle read about the arrogance, the hubris of owners just picking up and leaving and the way that trust and confidence has been broken in that environment, it’s very unhealthy for the NBA and it’s very unhealthy for me in Seattle.”