The Horse Races of Summer

An animated stallion battles Jennifer Lopez and Al Pacino. A futuristic dragon takes on girl surfers. New action star Vin Diesel goes mano a mano with old action star Mel Gibson.

Welcome to the most crowded summer movie season in memory, when major releases will go head to head on virtually every weekend. So on May 24, a horse of the Old West (DreamWorks’ “Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron”) has to contend with a fighting J. Lo (Columbia’s “Enough”) and an embattled Pacino (Warner Bros. “Insomnia”). On July 12, the dragon (Disney’s “Reign of Fire”) goes up against surfing chicks (Universal’s “Blue Crush”). And on Aug. 2, Diesel tests his star power (Columbia/Revolution’s “XXX”) against Gibson (Disney’s “Signs”).

Right now, 51 films are scheduled for national release (1,500 or more theaters) between May and August, compared with 43 last year, according to Tom Borys, president of the movie research firm EDI/Nielsen. “Even if a couple of them drop out, that’s still a 10% increase in the number of wide-release movies,” Borys says.

On most of the prime weekends from mid-June to mid-August (when schools are out and adults are on vacation), there’ll be what Borys calls “a pile-up of films.” Take a look at the July 19 weekend, for example: The family-oriented sequel “Stuart Little 2” will open along with the adult action film “K:19 The Widowmaker,” starring Harrison Ford. Those two films will also have to fend off “Eight Legged Freaks” and “Halloween: Resurrection,” which could siphon away much of the 12- to 25-year-olds.

Then the four films will have to survive the third “Austin Powers,” which premieres the following weekend. So each has to make a splash or possibly sink without a trace.

The large number of films has made the choice of the right launch date even more precarious. (The studios are still playing with some release dates.) “We’re all jockeying for windows this summer,” Warner Bros. distribution head Dan Fellman says. “It’s become a risky business, and the important thing is not what’s in front of you or behind you, but positioning your film on a weekend you think you can open it.”

Open Solidly or Face Ejection From Theaters

Back in the day, a movie could debut to modest business and then grow through word-of-mouth into a major grossing film. But now the relentless summer stream--with a heavy emphasis on testosterone action or take-the-whole-family elements--makes it essential that a movie open to at least solid business--in the $30 million to 40 million range--or theater owners will quickly dump it, says Fellman.

Even mid-sized business is sometimes not enough, according to Jim Tharp, DreamWorks’ distribution head. The film may stay on the megaplex marquee, but it likely will be shunted to a smaller auditorium.

This summer, only the just opened “Spider-Man” and the upcoming sequels to “Star Wars,” “Men in Black” and “Austin Powers” will have the luxury of opening largely unopposed. “The audience decides to go early to those movies,” says Universal marketing executive Peter Adee. If last summer is any indication, juggernaut opening weekends will likely be followed by 50% or more drop-offs for the second weekend, making it possible for new movies to attain some visibility.

But even with a major second weekend decline, if, as expected, those movies have opening weekends of $60 million or more, they’ll still be doing at least $30 million in Week 2. That means some new arrivals will have to strive even harder just to get a foothold.

The best way to do that, says Tharp, is concentrate on a target demographic. When DreamWorks’ “Road to Perdition” opens on July 12, Tharp is hoping to corner upscale adult patrons and Tom Hanks’ fan base with a limited release. That should give the film sturdy enough legs against its competition, the younger-skewing sci-fi monster film “Reign of Fire” and the surfer-girl tale “Blue Crush.” Then DreamWorks hopes to broaden the release in the following weeks.

Usually the major films of June and July face less competition from May releases, which are mostly played out by the time the new movies hit theaters. However, unlike the previous two or three summers, Borys says, even May is more crowded--12 national releases compared with eight last year.

When event films like “Pearl Harbor” and “Star Wars: Episode 1 The Phantom Menace,” opened in May, other studios gave them a wide berth. That won’t happen this year when Memorial Day becomes the first major horse-race weekend. Through that weekend, the thriller “Enough,” starring Jennifer Lopez, goes head to head with Christopher Nolan’s “Insomnia,” starring Pacino and Robin Williams. Both films are designed to appeal to an older (than 25) audience. In addition, the youth and family audience will be courted for “Spirit,” the second weekend of “Star Wars” and “Spider-Man,” which is expected to maintain a high profile throughout the month.

A week later, the adult audience will be deluged with action movies appealing mostly to men, starting on May 31 with the new Tom Clancy tale, “Sum of All Fears,” starring Ben Affleck. That’s followed by “Bad Company,” starring Chris Rock and Anthony Hopkins on June 7; the Robert Ludlum adaptation “The Bourne Identity,” starring Matt Damon, and John Woo’s war epic “Windtalkers” on June 14; and the June 21 premiere of Steven Spielberg’s “Minority Report,” starring Tom Cruise.

The trick is “to present your movie as fresh and different,” says Disney senior marketing executive Chuck Viane about the crush of thrillers. The studio hopes to distinguish “Bad Company” by playing up its comedic nature and the pairing of the irreverent Rock with the more serious Hopkins. Paramount (“Sum”) and Universal (“Bourne”) will go after the Clancy and Ludlum “pedigree” (a fancy word for pre-sold name recognition) with emphasis on the films’ young male stars.

With many colleges out, early June has been hospitable to films skewing toward the 18-to-24 crowd. That shifts in mid-June, when summer recess is in full throttle. Companies like Disney take advantage of kids’ seven-day-a-week availability by releasing its annual summer animated movie, which this year is “Lilo & Stitch” (June 21). “It’s a date that’s always worked for us,” Viane says.

One of the most contentious release dates is Aug. 2, when Diesel stars in the espionage thriller “XXX” against M. Night Shyamalan’s suspense film “Signs,” starring Gibson. “We expect to play younger” than “Signs,” says Geoff Ammer, Sony’s marketing head. Yet if “XXX” is to truly break through, the studio will want older males as well. The reverse is true for “Signs,” which will want the teen crowd, whose repeat business made Shyamalan’s “The Sixth Sense” a massive surprise hit in 1999.

On Aug. 16, there will be five movies with comedic premises: “The Adventures of Pluto Nash,” starring Eddie Murphy; Dana Carvey in “Masters of Disguise”; a Jackie Chan film “The Tuxedo”; the more romantic “Saving Sara,” with Elizabeth Hurley; and the satire “Simone,” with Pacino.

How big a slice of the pie can each film get?

Ammer contends that the overall pie has gotten larger, allowing for bigger pieces. “Based on last summer, because of the number of screens around the country, it wasn’t even necessary to be No. 1,” he says.