World Shrinking for Wary Travelers

Eric Heath had worked for months on the surprise birthday trip for his wife, Colleen. He secretly bought plane tickets and reserved a hotel. He even conspired with his wife’s boss to arrange vacation time behind her back.

The dream destination: Bali. But not anymore.

In the aftermath of the nightclub bombing that killed nearly 200 people last month, Heath and his wife opted for an out-of-the way Mexican Pacific resort in Barra de Navidad rather than the South Pacific.

“As soon as I saw the news reports I knew there was no way I was going to bring my wife there,” said Heath, of Monrovia. “I wasn’t going to be looking over my shoulder all the time.”

Their story is becoming increasingly common. Americans who see themselves as targets are staying away from foreign vacation destinations in droves as the once-expansive world of travel shrinks with each new threat and violent incident.

Thirty-seven countries are listed by the State Department as places where American travelers should use extreme caution or avoid altogether, apparently a record number. Of those, 24 have a travel warning, which means “stay away.” “The sense is that we have many more now than we ever did,” State Department spokesman Stuart Pratt said of the warnings.

That may bode ill for the adventurous American tourist. Americans began traveling abroad in large numbers with the introduction of transoceanic jet travel in 1958. With a few exceptions, those numbers continued to climb through the next three decades.

The last major downturn in travel to foreign destinations came during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when Americans hunkered down to see what would happen in the battle to free Kuwait from Iraqi occupation. Even the number of Americans visiting comparatively safe Europe dropped by more than 1 million in 1991, a 16% decrease from the previous year. Since then, however, the number of Americans traveling abroad had risen dramatically -- until 2001, when they again stayed home.

Travel experts say that in the event of a Middle East war, Americans will seek out familiar places like Europe for vacations, or will simply stay close to home. Recreational-vehicle sales and rentals, for instance, are booming. The bed-and-breakfast business is up, and so are visits to national parks.

“Any place with an Indiana Jones kind of atmosphere can forget it,” said John Valerio, owner of Crown City Travel in Pasadena. “If it has a smidgen of intrigue, people aren’t going to go there.”

Not Even on the List

And that includes places not even on the warning list. Valerio’s bookings to Turkey are way off. Ditto for Eastern Europe. Suddenly, a trip north to Canada is starting to look more appealing than a biblical pilgrimage to Israel, which has been racked by terrorist attacks and other fighting. Tourism is up 5% in Canada while it has dropped 70% in Israel.

“No one’s coming,” said Hani abu Dayyeh, a Jerusalem-based tour operator whose family has been involved in the Middle East travel industry for many years. “It’s a big mess.”

Among other things, Abu Dayyeh’s company had to sell several hotels and about half its bus fleet just to stay afloat. The staff at his Jerusalem office has dwindled from 22 to three. He said that the American tourist presence is almost nil and that it has been that way for two years. The culprit is not only West Bank violence but also suicide bombings throughout Israel that have made cafes and buses common targets.

Susan Eckert, whose Adventure Woman tour company caters to women 30 and older, said she had to plan her 2003 trips carefully to avoid places that are potential trouble spots. This year she canceled trips to both India and Nepal because of unstable conditions there.

“I didn’t want to go anywhere near places where there have been problems,” said Eckert, who runs her company out of Bozeman, Mont. “We used to go places where we can’t go anymore.” She cited Rwanda and Zimbabwe, among others, where she no longer takes her tours.

Even Europe, though, may not be free of anti-American sentiment. Richard Dekmejian, a USC political science professor, said Europeans are becoming increasingly dismayed with the bellicose threats of war against Iraq by the Bush administration.

“The stuff coming out of the State Department is having such a negative resonance right across Europe,” he said. “Our friends in Europe and the non-Islamic world are aghast.”

Another industry that has been forced to make changes is the cruise-line business, particularly those that offered around-the-world packages.

“World cruises are struggling,” said Mike Driscoll, editor of Cruise Week, a trade publication. “These are cruises that often have 40 stops. But it’s hard to find 40 countries that aren’t near a worrisome area.”

He also said cruise lines are operating out of more American ports, allowing vacationers to drive to a ship and avoid a flight.

Michael Palmer, head of the Student and Youth Assn. of North America -- a Detroit-based trade group that specializes in student travel -- said some school boards are balking at allowing travel abroad. He said restrictions on youth group travel are driven by liability and safety issues, despite the fact that the most popular destinations are Western Europe and Japan. But he said he expected the number of young people traveling abroad to increase, despite the impression that the world is a more dangerous place.

“Younger people always tend to take more risks than older people,” he said. “This particular age group is pretty sharp in looking at problems and finding solutions.”

U.S. Seen as Dangerous

Palmer also noted that foreigners who are balking at coming to the United States because it is now considered too dangerous make up the biggest falloff in international travel. At an international youth conference in Toronto this year, less than half the students showed up. The reason most often given: It was too close to the U.S.

International travel to the United States fell by 11% in 2001 and is going to stay in the dumper this year as well, according to the Travel Industry Assn. of America.

A Canadian government advisory, for instance, warns of possible further attacks in the United States, with targets including airports, apartment buildings, popular landmarks, bridges, nuclear power plants, and oil and gas refineries, as well as the danger of more airplane hijackings.

The Australian government warns its citizens “to be especially alert to their own security” in the United States.

Bruce Epstein of the Massachusetts-based Odysseys Unlimited touring company said people he talks to abroad are less likely now to travel to the U.S. than they were before Sept. 11.

“Before, the U.S. had to be considered one of the safest possible destinations in the world,” he said. “Now people give it a second and third thought.”

The fact that fewer people are traveling has left the American travel industry in a serious funk that isn’t expected to rebound for at least a couple more years.

Domestic and international travel expenditures dropped by $33.3 billion in 2001 and are expected to decline by an additional $1.9 billion this year.

At a tourism forum last month, Delos Smith, a senior analyst with the nonprofit Conference Board, which produces the Consumer Confidence Index, warned that war with Iraq could make international travel an even harder sell.

“For this industry, war clouds are the worst thing you can have,” he said.

But there’s a silver lining in all this for some. Christine Gustafson of the California Assn. of Bed and Breakfast Inns, said business is booming around the state.

“We used to think of escaping to someplace exotic,” she said. “But now that just makes people anxious.”