Discounts aimed at Americans saying non to Europe

Spring used to be a peak time for Americans booking summer vacations in Europe, but for the second year in a row, it is a season of indecision.

Last year the wild card was fear of flying, part of the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. This year we’re holding a whole hand of wild cards.

Among them: the recession at home, concern about anti-Americanism abroad, resentment of France’s antiwar stance, fear of terrorism and an anemic dollar. Together they create the elements of the perfect storm for European tourism.

With the winding down of the Iraq conflict, travel sellers are hoping that pent-up demand will kick-start a summer rush of Americans to Europe. To jolt us off the couch, they have offered some electrifying discounts.

“There seems to be a point at which people’s fears are overcome by a very low price,” said Jimmy Murphy, chairman of Brendan Tours in Chatsworth, which annually sends about 40,000 people to Europe. He recently found that price point by selling an air-inclusive (from New York) nine-day canal cruise in the Netherlands for the cost of the cruise alone: $1,598 versus the $2,386 brochure price.

“That moved people,” he said.

British Airways Holidays last week began selling air-hotel packages starting at $578 per person round trip from Los Angeles, or $423 from New York, for three nights’ stay in London. Book by May 16 for departures Friday through Aug. 23. (877) 428-2228, www.britishairways.com. In an online-only sale that must be booked by Monday, Ireland’s Aer Lingus has been offering round-trip Dublin fares starting at $298 from New York and $468 from Los Angeles. www.aerlingus.com. (Click on “A Thousand Welcomes.”)

Some sales may have a small window of opportunity. Virgin Atlantic last week offered a $1 companion-sale fare for just two days, good for travel through June 18.

How widespread the summer deals will become is anyone’s guess. If demand for European travel bounces back, planes could quickly fill and sales could end, experts agree. Weekend seats to London can already be hard to find, as airlines have cut flights to match the wartime lull.

So far, transatlantic fares for July are generally lower than last year, said Geoff Silvers, director of marketing for the online travel seller www.orbitz.com.

When he recently checked the average round-trip fares sold by Orbitz on nine popular routes for comparable weeks in July, Silvers found seven lower and only one higher: Los Angeles-Rome, up nearly 15%. (He thinks the lack of competition on that route drives the price.)

By contrast, Los Angeles-Paris fares averaged $1,044 in 2002, $855 this year; Los Angeles-London was $865 in 2002 and $745 this year. “These are good fares to grab hold of,” Silvers said.

Will there be a rush to Europe -- and therefore a rush to raise prices? Many experts think not.

The number of Americans traveling overseas may hit a record low in 2003, William S. Norman, president and chief executive of the Travel Industry Assn. of America, suggested, based on a recent TIA survey.

When Americans who are switching vacation plans are asked to identify the destinations they will avoid, Europe in general and France in particular rank just below the Middle East, according to a survey in late March by Yesawich, Pepperdine, Brown & Russell, an Orlando, Fla.-based marketing consultant.

Here are some reasons Europe may stay off travelers’ to-do lists for a while:

* No love lost: Some Americans may regard it as unpatriotic to visit France or Germany because those countries didn’t support the war in Iraq. More broadly, Americans worry about encountering anti-American attitudes in Europe stemming from the conflict.

“We thought we would be personae non gratae,” said Ann Wilke of Prairie Village, Kan., who with her husband, Lyle, canceled plans to spend a week in April in a rented villa in France to celebrate their 40th wedding anniversary.

She wants to reschedule the France trip for fall. “I’m hoping there will be a healing factor in the passage of time,” she said.

Peter Yesawich, whose company conducted the March traveler survey, isn’t sure that healing will come soon. “France’s stance on the war issue ... is going to have an effect for many months to come,” he said. France already is expecting 15% to 20% fewer U.S. tourists this month than in April 2002, said Patrick Goyet, director of the French Government Tourist Office in New York. His office will work on attracting the 46 million Americans who have been to Europe before.

The tourist office is so worried about the issue that it recently posted a visitor questionnaire on its Web site, www.franceguide.com, that asks, among other questions: “Are you concerned about French attitudes towards Americans in France?”

* Money, money, money: International travel is not cheap, even with discounts. And money is a big concern during an economic downturn.

In a poll commissioned by the Internet travel seller www.travelocity.com in late March after the Iraq war began, more than a quarter of respondents cited cost as the No. 1 reason for not traveling or being undecided. Fewer than 9% said they worried about “how events might affect the safety of travel.”

When the TIA asked domestic leisure travelers after the war started why they changed their travel plans, 33% cited a weakened economy, and 22% cited the war.

Adding to the problem in European travel, the dollar has long been sliding against the euro, making purchases abroad more expensive for Americans. The dollar was recently trading at about 93 cents to the euro, compared with $1.13 in January 2002, when that currency began circulating.

* It’s a wild world: With world tensions high, Americans are reluctant to stray far from home and risk being stranded, Yesawich says.

Between December and March, the percentage of American travelers saying they will spend leisure trips with family and friends increased to 42% from 28% in surveys commissioned by Travelocity. And the percentage who plan to take a trip within 200 miles of home rose to 61% from 42%.

Ryan Rillorta of Culver City is a typical worried traveler. He had hoped to spend two weeks in July touring Spain, Greece and nearby countries. But he said he became concerned about the potential for “heightened terrorist activity” and anti-American feelings in Europe. So lately he’s been thinking of going to Cancun, Mexico, instead.

“I don’t want to make plans and find out in two months that there are obstacles,” he said.

At least one group seems blissfully unconcerned about avoiding the Continent: the wealthy.

“People [who] go all the time need their ‘fix’ of Europe,” said Bill Fischer, who runs a personal concierge service in New York that includes travel planning for the rich and famous. Lodging on Italy’s Capri and Sardinia islands and other European glamour capitals is “very hard to come by” from mid-April through October, he said.

Here’s a sampling of European deals offered as of Tuesday, the Travel section’s deadline; some may have sold out or become unavailable:

* Rome from $577: That was the starting price for a Rome Getaway package with round-trip air from Los Angeles and a $200 credit toward hotels, car rentals or other expenses. Book by April 30; travel through June 15. (800) 359-3876, www.1800flyeurope.com.

* Paris from $599: That price includes five nights’ hotel in the French capital, round-trip air from Los Angeles on Air Tahiti Nui and daily breakfast. From France Vacations. Book by May 31; travel through June 15. The same company has deals to London; Nice, France; and other places in Europe. (800) 332-5332.

* Cut-rate cruises: The new Oceania Cruises line is offering a two-for-one sale, including free round-trip coach air from the U.S., on its inaugural sailings in Europe, which start July 5. Discounted prices begin at $2,995 per person, double occupancy, for 14-day cruises. (800) 531-5658, www.oceaniacruises.com.