Governor Needs Party Unity

To keep his job, Gov. Gray Davis ultimately must convince a majority of California voters that recalling him would be bad for the state. But over the next five days, his audience is smaller and his message more focused: He is trying to convince leading Democrats, some of whom are wavering, that he can prevail in October.

If doubts grow between now and the Saturday deadline for entering the race, Democrats and their allies will probably intensify appeals being made to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, urging her to run to forestall Republican control of the statehouse.

For Democrats to remain confident in Davis’ ability to win, they will need to be persuaded by a combination of polling data and fund-raising indicators. Davis aides are busy circulating memos saying the governor is the strongest possible candidate.

“The best they can argue is that they have a decent shot of beating the recall,” said U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), who has publicly called on Feinstein to run. To date, she has said she is opposed to the recall and not interested in being a candidate. “The problem is that there are no guarantees.”

Other Democrats and some traditional Democratic interest groups are circulating their own polls showing Davis is losing ground and could easily be replaced by a conservative Republican.

Fighting to hold the line until the filing deadline of 5 p.m. Saturday, Davis campaign aides are appealing to pragmatism, not personal loyalty. Few of the state’s top Democrats are close to Davis, and they show little interest in saving him out of friendship.

Davis, never known for his warmth, is suddenly reaching out. U.S. Rep. Diane Watson (D-Los Angeles), for example, said she has gotten a series of faxes and letters from the governor thanking her for her support and for speaking out against the recall. In an Aug. 4 letter, Davis thanked her again “for her friendship at this difficult time” and gave her his private phone number.

Asked about calls for an alternative Democrat to enter the race, Watson called them “very interesting.”

“I am not ready to [discuss] whether we should put forth another Democratic candidate. Right now, I just oppose the recall,” she said.

Davis allies say the governor talks frequently with Feinstein, the 70-year-old three-term senator, and that she is unwavering in her opposition to the recall. They make the case that, with the exception of Feinstein, no other Democrat can win without spending millions and he alone has the ability to raise that kind of money quickly.

Davis’ visit to labor leaders in Chicago on Monday was designed to make that point. Art Pulaski, head of the California labor federation and a strong Davis supporter, argued that a concerted campaign by labor could keep Davis in office. Davis is counting on labor to fund half of the $20 million he expects to spend on the campaign.

Pulaski said polls continued to show support for the recall holding steady at about 51%.

“We think we can turn this around,” said Miguel Contreras, leader of the Los Angeles County labor federation. “A lot of union members are for this recall right now. We have to do a job within our own structure, but we think it’s doable.”

If any prominent Democrat breaks ranks and runs, Davis would lose one of the strongest arguments he can muster in a largely Democratic state for defeating the recall -- that if he were ousted, a conservative Republican could well be his successor.

“That would remove the fear of him being recalled and the state being left with a [state Sen.] Tom McClintock or [U.S. Rep.] Darrell Issa,” said Assemblyman Joe Canciamilla (D-Pittsburg). “That’s the doomsday scenario .... If you have a moderate Democrat in there, it’s OK. There’s a viable choice here.”

The more Democrats who choose to run, the worse for the party, according to the Davis camp. If two or more Democrats enter the race, they would eat into each other’s support and strengthen the odds of a Republican winning, one Davis aide said.

Sherman, a Democrat who represents part of the San Fernando Valley, said he believes the Democratic Party should urge people to vote against the recall but should get behind Feinstein as a safeguard.

Feinstein’s entry would also energize Democratic turnout and improve the party’s chances, Sherman said.

“I want to be at a rally at Cal State Northridge the day before the recall with both Dianne and Gray, beneath big signs that say, ‘Death to the Recall! Viva Dianne!’ ” Sherman said in an interview.

But most political analysts believe a Feinstein candidacy would be a boost to the recall and effectively doom Davis.

What is especially difficult for Davis in fighting the recall and the uncertainties in his own party is his inability to rely on the most natural argument an incumbent can make -- that he is a good governor with a strong record. Voters, polls show, don’t believe that. Davis’ job approval rating hovers in the 20s.

As an unpopular governor in a state bedeviled by crises, Davis must press a different theme, analysts said. In little more than one term, Davis has endured rolling blackouts, billion-dollar budget shortfalls and a sinking bond rating. So the governor has focused on attacking the recall process itself.

Trouble is, that message doesn’t necessarily resonate with voters, some experts said.

“He has a dilemma. If he runs on his record, he reminds people of what’s wrong with the state,” said Jack Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. “So the trick is to run against the process. We’re seeing that in his legal arguments -- that the process doesn’t really give people the opportunity to voice their will, and that the presence of so many candidates will lead to a confusing ballot.”

That’s certainly the case that Davis strategists are making.

“The argument that we’re making to insiders is the same argument we’re making to the people of this state: Republicans want to spend almost $70 million in taxpayer money in an effort to impose a right-wing conservative agenda on this state,” said Peter Ragone, a Davis campaign aide. “And the only way to defeat this partisan effort is to stand united.”

Times staff writers Jeffrey L. Rabin, Gregg Jones and Joel Rubin contributed to this report.