Labor Leaders May Vote to Hedge Their Bets on Recall

The state’s powerful labor federation meets today to take up the contentious issue of whether to support Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante as a backup candidate in the recall election of Gov. Gray Davis -- a move that, if it occurs, would mark both a shift in strategy and a significant lift for Bustamante.

But even as many Democratic leaders have coalesced behind a hedge-the-bets strategy, pairing a “no” on the recall vote with a “yes” for the lieutenant governor’s backup candidacy, labor has remained fractured.

Five hundred voting delegates are expected to be on hand in Manhattan Beach as the California State Federation of Labor makes its formal recommendations for the Oct. 7 ballot. The delegates represent about 1,300 unions, many of which remain divided over how to defeat the recall effort without risking the election of a new governor whose policies would be hostile to labor’s interests.

The chief question is whether to throw the considerable resources and manpower of organized labor behind Bustamante, who ignored the pleas of labor leaders to stay out of the recall race.

Members of the state federation’s executive council met into the early evening Monday, preparing an agenda for the larger meeting today, including whether even to bring the question of the backup endorsementto a vote.

A formal endorsement of any candidate or position requires the support of two-thirds of delegates.

Bustamante’s campaign would welcome the state federation’s backing, particularly because it would bring nearly all the state’s major Democratic groups and leaders in line with his campaign strategy. In the last few weeks, Bustamante has met with half a dozen unions that have requested interviews, said his campaign strategist, Richie Ross, although he has not aggressively pursued labor endorsements.

In the days leading up to Monday’s executive council meeting and today’s broader discussion, state federation Executive Secretary-Treasurer Art Pulaski sought input from union leaders on whether to endorse Bustamante.

The state federation has promised to spend $5 million in direct efforts to defeat the recall effort, using thousands of volunteers to work phone banks and go door to door and sending out hundreds of thousands of job-site fliers and direct-mail appeals.

So far, labor’s statewide script has been to urge a straight “no” on the question of recalling Davis. The second question on the ballot -- the vote on a successor for Davis if he fails to get more than 50% on the recall question -- has not been addressed by labor’s volunteer callers.

But a formal endorsement of Bustamante would almost certainly mean those same callers would include a recommendation that union households cast a vote for him.

About three in 10 California voters identify themselves as coming from union households, Times exit polls have shown.

In recent days, a growing number of unions, such as the California State Employees Assn. and California Teacher’s Assn., have endorsed Bustamante, even as they have urged a “no” vote on the recall question. On Monday, Democrats in the state Senate also hedged their anti-recall stand by supporting Bustamante as the best candidate in the event Davis is voted out.

“Having two bites at the apple is infinitely better than one,” Senate leader John L. Burton of San Francisco told reporters.

The position, the same adopted last week by California’s 33 Democratic representatives to Congress, is one that some union officials feel they should be taking as well.

“The second question needs to be answered,” said Rick Eiden, president of the Orange County Central Labor Council. “That is: If there is a recall, who is the most qualified candidate? We think it’s Cruz Bustamante.”

Jerry Butkiewicz, secretary-treasurer of the San Diego-Imperial Counties Central Labor Council, said, “We have to do what our membership wants.”

At a conference two weeks ago, he said, 80 rank-and-file members were asked if they planned to vote against recalling Davis. “One hundred percent raised their hands. Then we asked how many would vote for a candidate on the second part of the ballot. All 80 raised their hands.”

But some top labor leaders have consistently said they believe their energies and money should be devoted exclusively to beating the recall effort.

Carroll Wills, spokesman for the California Professional Firefighters, said union President Dan Terry had gone into Monday’s executive council meeting “firm in his view that his desire and his first choice is to keep the eye on the ball.”

Wills said that those favoring the “no, period” strategy felt energized by The Times poll Saturday that indicated about 45% of voters would vote “no” on the recall question, while another 5% are undecided.

Recent polls by other news organizations and nonpartisan groups had shown Davis down by 10 points or more.

A victory, if it came, would almost certainly be credited to labor’s influence, bolstering the position of unions as one of the most important forces in Democratic politics, said Kent Wong, director of the UCLA Center for Labor Research and Education.

With the potential upside high, some veterans of the labor movement say it is important to keep voters focused on what everyone in the movement says is the top priority: keeping Davis in office.

“The question is, do we go out with a focused message or a confused message?” said Bill Camp, executive secretary of the Sacramento Central Labor Council. “We have to give people a crystal-clear message and push like hell to get every working family to the polls. Our job is not to persuade people to vote for Cruz. Our job is to get the Democratic base voters to the polls. We should not be ambiguous.”

While labor’s endorsement is normally a top goal for Democratic contenders, the unprecedented nature of this election has created unusual dynamics.

Opposition in the Davis camp to a Bustamante candidacy has diminished since a judge ruled earlier this month that Davis couldn’t get on the ballot, campaign officials said. At that point, the paramount aim became making the fight one of Democrats vs. Republicans rather than Davis vs. Bustamante, Democratic strategists and Davis campaign officials said. Relations between Davis and Bustamante have been strained since the early days of the governor’s first term in 1999.

Davis campaign officials said their effort is focused entirely on keeping Democrats united in a “no” vote on the recall question.

Labor leaders, Democratic party strategists and Davis campaign officials said Monday that the governor hasn’t tried to influence the California Labor Federation’s decision.

“I can only tell you that, in all the calls that I’ve been on and all the strategy sessions I’ve been in, there has never been a discussion” about trying to influence the vote of the labor federation, said Susan Kennedy, a former Davis aide who remains close to the governor and his campaign. “It’s a strategic decision and I don’t think anybody has the answer with any certainty.”

Davis, who had hoped pressure from unions and national Democratic leaders would keep all prominent Democrats off the ballot, has softened his stance on Bustamante’s candidacy, reflecting in part the possibility that Bustamante might bring to the polls more voters who oppose recalling him.

“The bottom line for us is getting as many people as we can united against the recall and to vote no on Question 1,” said Peter Ragone, communications director of the Davis campaign. “On Question 2, there’s a divergence of opinion with Democrats all over the state, and that’s OK with us because everyone is unified on Question 1.”

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Times staff writer Matea Gold contributed to this report.