Do Golden Globes influence the Academy Awards?

Much is made in entertainment punditry of the Golden Globes’ presumed status as a barometer for the Oscars. The Globes are not a bad indicator, but it’s worth remembering that both events are essentially popularity contests. The Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. has fewer than 100 voting members; the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has about 6,000 voters. Both shows involve highly subjective decisions about roughly the same pool of movies and performances. Because the Globes nominates 10 movies, 10 men and 10 women in two categories (drama and musical or comedy) for best picture, actor and actress versus five in single categories for the same top three Academy Awards, if they didn’t match up with Oscar a good deal of the time you’d have to wonder about their judgment. It may be that the Globes are most accurate as an initial winnowing of the competitors, meaning that if a movie or person doesn’t make the Globes’ cut, it’s less likely they will be taking any congratulatory calls come Oscar nominations day. With this in mind, here’s a glance at each group’s winners over the last five years. Golden Globes winners that eventually also won an Academy Award appear in boldface.

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1998

CATEGORY: Best Picture

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) “Saving Private Ryan”; (Comedy or Musical) “Shakespeare in Love”

ACADEMY AWARDS: “Shakespeare in Love”

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CATEGORY: Director

GOLDEN GLOBES: Steven Spielberg, “Saving Private Ryan”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Spielberg

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CATEGORY: Actor

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) Jim Carrey, “The Truman Show”; (Comedy or Musical) Michael Caine, “Little Voice”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Roberto Benigni, “Life Is Beautiful”

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CATEGORY: Actress

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) Cate Blanchett, “Elizabeth”; (Comedy or Musical) Gwyneth Paltrow, “Shakespeare in Love”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Paltrow

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CATEGORY: Supporting Actor

GOLDEN GLOBES: Ed Harris, “The Truman Show”

ACADEMY AWARDS: James Coburn, “Affliction”

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CATEGORY: Supporting Actress

GOLDEN GLOBES: Lynn Redgrave, “Gods and Monsters”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Judi Dench, “Shakespeare in Love”

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1999

CATEGORY: Best Picture

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) “American Beauty”; (Comedy or Musical) “Toy Story 2”

ACADEMY AWARDS: “American Beauty”

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CATEGORY: Director

GOLDEN GLOBES: Sam Mendes, “American Beauty”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Mendes

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CATEGORY: Actor

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) Denzel Washington, “The Hurricane”; (Comedy or Musical) Jim Carrey, “Man on the Moon”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Kevin Spacey, “American Beauty”

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CATEGORY: Actress

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) Hilary Swank, “Boys Don’t Cry”; (Comedy or Musical) Janet McTeer, “Tumbleweeds”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Swank

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CATEGORY: Supporting Actor

GOLDEN GLOBES: Tom Cruise, “Magnolia”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Michael Caine, “The Cider House Rules”

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CATEGORY: Supporting Actress

GOLDEN GLOBES: Angelina Jolie, “Girl, Interrupted”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Jolie

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2000

CATEGORY: Best Picture

GOLDEN GLOBES: Best Picture(Drama) “Gladiator”; (Comedy or Musical) “Almost Famous”

ACADEMY AWARDS: “Gladiator”

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CATEGORY: Director

GOLDEN GLOBES: Ang Lee, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Steven Soderbergh, “Traffic”

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CATEGORY: Actor

GOLDEN GLOBES: Drama) Tom Hanks, “Cast Away”; (Comedy or Musical) George Clooney, “O Brother, Where Art Thou?”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Russell Crowe, “Gladiator”

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CATEGORY: Actress

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) Julia Roberts, “Erin Brockovich”; (Comedy or Musical) Renee Zellweger, “Nurse Betty”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Roberts

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CATEGORY: Supporting Actor

GOLDEN GLOBES: Benecio Del Toro, “Traffic”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Del Toro

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CATEGORY: Supporting Actress

GOLDEN GLOBES: Kate Hudson, “Almost Famous”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Marcia Gay Harden,”Pollock”

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2001

CATEGORY: Best Picture

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) “A Beautiful Mind”; (Comedy or Musical) “Moulin Rouge!”

ACADEMY AWARDS: “A Beautiful Mind”

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CATEGORY: Director

GOLDEN GLOBES: Robert Altman, “Gosford Park”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Ron Howard, “A Beautiful Mind”

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CATEGORY: Actor

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) Russell Crowe, “A Beautiful Mind”; (Musical or Comedy) Gene Hackman, “The Royal Tenenbaums”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Denzel Washington, “Training Day”

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CATEGORY: Actress

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) Sissy Spacek, “In the Bedroom”; (Musical or Comedy) Nicole Kidman, “Moulin Rouge!”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Halle Berry, “Monster’s Ball”

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CATEGORY: Supporting Actor

GOLDEN GLOBES: Jim Broadbent, “Iris”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Broadbent

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CATEGORY: Supporting Actress

GOLDEN GLOBES: Jennifer Connelly, “A Beautiful Mind”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Connelly

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2002

CATEGORY: Best Picture

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) “The Hours”; (Comedy or Musical) “Chicago”

ACADEMY AWARDS: “Chicago”

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CATEGORY: Director

GOLDEN GLOBES: Martin Scorsese, “Gangs of New York”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Director Roman Polanski, “The Pianist”

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CATEGORY: Actor

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) Jack Nicholson, “About Schmidt”; (Comedy or Musical) Richard Gere, “Chicago”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Adrien Brody, “The Pianist”

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CATEGORY: Actress

GOLDEN GLOBES: (Drama) Nicole Kidman, “The Hours”; (Comedy or Musical) Renee Zellweger, “Chicago”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Kidman

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CATEGORY: Supporting Actor

GOLDEN GLOBES: Chris Cooper, “Adaptation”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Cooper

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CATEGORY: Supporting Actress

GOLDEN GLOBES: Meryl Streep, “Adaptation”

ACADEMY AWARDS: Catherine Zeta-Jones, “Chicago”