State’s Political Money Is Prized Beyond Votes

With less than 11 weeks until the California primary, Democratic presidential candidates are laying minimal groundwork for the race as they fight instead to build momentum in the earlier spurt of contests in other states.

Sticking to tradition, California is supplying its usual flow of campaign money, but candidates are spending it in Iowa, New Hampshire and other states with a bigger say in choosing the Democratic nominee.

Front-runner and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards are the latest to dart into California to pick up checks. Retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark will follow suit next week, with money stops in Los Angeles and San Francisco.

But when it comes to a concentrated campaign to win California’s March 2 primary, candidates are treating it as a battle to be joined in February -- if at all. The quick emergence of a clear front-runner could make it unnecessary for the presumptive nominee to squander scarce cash in California, the costliest state for waging a campaign.

“The whole ballgame is to see how things shake out in Iowa and New Hampshire right now, because some people aren’t going to survive past that,” said Larry Grisolano, a California consultant who produces Iowa campaign mail for Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts.

A tightly compressed calendar of February races in South Carolina, Arizona, Missouri and other states could further winnow the field -- or effectively crown the nominee -- before Californians vote.

Republicans, meanwhile, are looking ahead to November. The leaders of President Bush’s reelection effort in California were announced Thursday in Sacramento by campaign Chairman Marc Racicot. Westwood financier Gerald L. Parsky, Bush’s top political operative in California, was named state chairman. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was named as honorary chairman, but the depth of his role in the campaign was unclear.

For Bush, California poses a steep challenge, but his campaign advisors hope some of Schwarzenegger’s popularity will rub off on the president.

“The importance of Schwarzenegger is it demonstrates that a Republican can win statewide,” Parsky said, alluding to a GOP losing streak that was broken in the recall election this fall.

Racicot described the governor’s name, reputation and credibility as key assets for Bush. But many political analysts attribute Schwarzenegger’s victory to the special circumstances of the recall effort, in particular deep voter dissatisfaction with Gray Davis, the Democratic governor who was ousted. The outcome of the 2004 presidential race in California, they say, is likely to hinge on whatever drives Bush’s popularity nationwide -- jobs, national security or other issues.

“Unless the Democrats have a really bad candidate at the top of the ticket, they’ll probably be able to win California again,” said Rhodes Cook, the author of several books on presidential elections.

Still, Parsky sought to cast the president Thursday as more compatible with the California electorate than he was in 2000, when he was trounced in the state by his Democratic rival, Al Gore. Parsky said Bush had earned new support among moderates with school reforms and Medicare coverage of prescription drugs for the elderly.

Nonetheless, one of California’s top GOP strategists acknowledged that California was pretty far down on Bush’s list of target states -- well below Florida, Pennsylvania, and others where the election was close in 2000.

In the 2004 race for the Democratic nomination, the quick succession of contests in January and February make it uncertain how large a role California will play. The nomination battle could be settled by the time Californians vote March 2 or the state could be the scene of an expensive showdown between the main survivors.

In the meantime, the Democrats continue to tap the state’s vast pool of donors. So far, they have collected more than $13 million in California -- more than in any other state, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks campaign money.

But the Democrats’ overall presence in California is minuscule compared with their full-bore campaigns in states with elections in January and February. Several candidates claim swarms of California volunteers. But beyond fundraising, even Dean, the national front-runner in the polls, has just one California operative on his payroll, state director Jude Barry of San Jose.

“The problem with California is that you don’t want to do too much too soon, because the field isn’t going to look now what it’s going to look like March 2,” said Edwards spokesman Roger Salazar.

The exorbitant cost of television advertising in top media markets deters campaigns from mounting aggressive efforts in California. “Given the state’s expense,” said Kerry consultant Jim Margolis, “you can’t afford to go play there at this juncture.”