Aid Request Spurned, Turkey Delays Decision on U.S. Access

Pivotal ally Turkey left Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, and U.S. war plans, hanging Thursday as it failed to satisfy American expectations of a quick decision on access to Turkish bases for a possible invasion of Iraq.

Top Turkish officials told U.S. diplomats that they are giving “serious consideration” to requests to allow American troops to pass through southeastern Turkey to stage an assault on Baghdad, a senior U.S. official said.

But although Powell said Thursday morning that he expected to hear from the Turks by the end of the day, Turkish officials indicated later that the decision had been postponed until today at the earliest.

Despite the delay, the developments indicated that at least a slight hope remained for a breakthrough on a crucial element in the administration’s planned campaign against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, both militarily and politically.

With the large, heavy force of more than 40,000 troops that the U.S. military wants to send through Turkey, the Pentagon could force Iraq to divide and weaken its army. Without access through Turkey, U.S. forces would have to fly troops and equipment to air bases in Kurd-controlled northern Iraq, but it would be a lighter, smaller and less effective contingent.

And if Turkey ultimately turns the U.S. down despite promises of billions of dollars in aid, it will be a severe blow to the increasingly fragile coalition that the Bush administration is trying to cobble together in support of an invasion.

As negotiations have continued between the two countries this week, each side has insisted that it would not sweeten its offer and acknowledged that talks could break down completely between the two longtime military allies.

Some U.S. officials have acknowledged that the Turks might spurn a deal that would bring valuable U.S. economic aid and closer ties with America but could set off powerful protests at home over a war that is deeply unpopular in the predominantly Muslim country.

The United States has offered $26 billion in grants, loans and loan guarantees, but Turkey has asked for a package totaling about $32 billion, diplomats say.

The tough talk continued Thursday from both sides.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer insisted that “either the gap will get closed, or it won’t.... This is not a bluff.”

In Turkey, Economy Minister Ali Babacan said in an interview with a Turkish publication that his country has found the U.S. offer “insufficient, and we are not looking at the request favorably.”

But some Turkish officials, perhaps sensitive to the fact that their demands may appear extortionate, began playing down the financial aspects of the deal.

Turkish Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis insisted that the larger disagreement is over political and military issues, including the role of the Turkish military in any campaign and the treatment of Kurdish groups in northern Iraq. Turkey has fought a domestic Kurdish insurgency, and it fears independence for the Kurds of northern Iraq.

Yakis said the talks were taking place “in a positive atmosphere.”

Powell, in comments to reporters, said “there might be some creative things we can do” to advance the deal.

This suggested that U.S. officials were still tinkering with how the financial deal could be structured. As often happens, Turkey has been offered a choice between direct aid and much larger sums in loans or loan guarantees. The first repayments wouldn’t be due until after a moratorium of several years, experts said.

The Turks have expressed fears that the White House might offer an aid package that could be blocked later in the year by a balky Congress. But a senior administration official insisted that would not be a problem.

“Congress will take a pretty positive attitude toward anybody who helps us out in this war,” the official said.

Some experts said there is more at stake in this decision than military plans. If the United States loses the backing of this longtime NATO ally, it could represent a major political setback by damaging the Bush administration’s efforts to build international support for the war.

“They’re trying hard to prevent any impression that the U.S. effort is in trouble,” said Bulent Aliriza, a Turkish specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. He said U.S. diplomats are trying to create the impression that war is inevitable and U.S. support would be strong.

“They can’t let this turn into a negative momentum.”

The Pentagon has been pressing hard for a swift decision, in part because thousands of U.S. troops and tons of heavy equipment are loaded aboard Navy ships in the Mediterranean, waiting for the order to unload.

Yet the Turks made it clear that the troops will have to remain aboard the ships for days longer because the Turkish parliament -- which must bless any deal -- cannot formally take up the U.S. request until Tuesday at the earliest.

The impasse with Turkey is preventing the United States from unloading a parade of military cargo ships carrying equipment for the Army’s 4th Infantry Division.

A U.S. Navy official said four Naval cargo vessels are in the eastern Mediterranean waiting to unload. Another Pentagon official said there are also as many as five or six contracted cargo ships.

As the Americans struggled with their Turkish allies, they faced friction from the Russian officials they are also counting on for support.

In a dig clearly aimed at the U.S., Russian Foreign Minister Igor S. Ivanov claimed Thursday that U.N. weapons inspectors are under intense international pressure to leave Iraq so as to create a pretext for war.

Russia has been weaving an at-times-ambiguous line between Germany and France, leaders of the antiwar movement, and the United States.

President Vladimir V. Putin has warned that Russia might take a tough position if Iraq doesn’t cooperate with the inspectors, but in a flurry of meetings and phone calls with the leaders of Germany, France and China in recent weeks, he formed part of a common front in insisting that the inspectors be allowed to continue their work.

Ivanov repeated Russia’s call on the Iraqi regime to cooperate fully with the inspectors but also criticized those who he said were pressuring the inspectors.

“According to our information, strong pressure is being exerted on international inspectors to provoke them to discontinue their operations in Iraq, as happened in 1998, or to pressure them into coming up with assessments that would justify the use of force,” he said.

Ivanov said Russia would not rule out vetoing a new resolution on Iraq in the Security Council. But he said it was premature to discuss the issue because there was no draft resolution at the Security Council.

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Times staff writer Richter reported from Washington and special correspondent Zaman from Ankara, Turkey. Staff writer Robyn Dixon in Moscow contributed to this report.