Iran Living on Edge Between Reformists and Conservatives

TEHRAN -- Peeking through smog and looming above traffic, the towering pastel-colored portraits of martyrs and clerics around the Iranian capital are reminders of the Islamic forces that govern a nation dangerously torn between reformers and religious hard-liners.

The struggle between the two camps has intensified in recent weeks as the economy sputters, students demand democratic reform, and trials are held for those accused of fomenting unrest and spying for the West. Divisions among conservative clerics are threatening to weaken the ruling elite. Reformers are losing the support of the masses. Domestic tensions are rising over the possibility of war in neighboring Iraq.

From tea shops to ski slopes, from spice markets to dusty carpet stalls, Iranians speak of the contempt they feel for the state. And as they have done for years, they navigate between two existences. One is the private freedom of their homes, where head scarves are peeled away and the black market delivers forbidden things. The other is the more rigid public sphere, where vigilantes and a sprawling security network enforce religious law.

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution brought the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to power, Iran has gone through spasms of conflict over how it should be governed. The worst upheaval came in 1999, when 1,400 students were arrested and five reportedly were killed during protests.

A similar mood -- although more muted since student leaders late last month called off large rallies -- exists today. Many interviewed across Tehran say they fear that radical elements on both sides will exploit a volatile atmosphere that could trigger the imposition of emergency law. Iranians believe that the coming months will be crucial for President Mohammad Khatami’s reformers to wrest more government control away from religious hard-liners led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“We are on the edge,” said Saeed Razavi Faghih, a philosophy major and student leader at Tarbiyat Modares University. “We are pressured by the demands of students who want to quickly move for change and government hard-liners who don’t want to give up power.

“We need to change this regime through laws and the constitution,” he added. “Toppling it would bring a very high cost. It would destroy civic structures, and we could have a civil war.”

Political analyst Hossain Seifzadeh agrees.

“We are not yet able to be democratic,” he said. “If this transition is defeated, we will be in crisis.... The reformists are losing ground in popularity. They don’t have the financial resources to fix things. We have 3 to 4 million unemployed.

“People are saying if we support the reformers, we’ll be washed up,” he said. “We could move to a new era of revolution in which different ethnic groups rise up in a romantic nationalism. It’s very dangerous.”

But gauging the fate of the conservatives or the reformers is tricky amid shifting political undercurrents. Some analysts say that although public anger is high, there does not yet exist a catalyst to spark widespread change. A number of top student leaders are in jail, and so far, populists have failed to sustain pressure on the government.

The prospect of war in Iraq has added further strains to the atmosphere as many wonder what U.S. intentions in the region will be if President Saddam Hussein is ousted. The Bush administration’s inclusion of Iran as part of an “axis of evil” has dismayed reformists and students. They claim it has hurt Khatami and given fuel to the conservative elite, which conjures the specter of a CIA-backed plot to destabilize the country by infiltrating and funding radical reformists.

As recently as last summer, clerics and reformers were at a stalemate over the fine print and pace of democratization. Both camps had internal divisions, but public consensus on the need for more government accountability and increased civil rights seemed to nudge them closer. In recent weeks, however, the two sides have been concerned mainly with preventing extremists from instigating unrest and a possible coup against Khatami.

The government also has seen the emergence of a movement known as the Third Force -- a populist phenomenon of citizens fed up with both the religious rigidity of conservatives and the unfulfilled promises of reformers. Loosely organized and counting among its ranks students, farmers, veterans and bankers, the Third Force is demanding changes to stop widespread corruption, tend to social problems such as poverty and drug addiction, and reduce unemployment -- which is at an unofficial rate of 25%.

The inability to improve the economy is a tremendous weight on the government, especially in a country where 65% of the population is under 25. A report last year by the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based organization that studies conflict zones, found that economic growth was far below healthy levels. A dip in oil prices has led to further deterioration, and Khatami has estimated that 42% of the 750,000 young Iranians who start looking for work each year are unable to find jobs.

“We are living in a Third World country,” said Mahmoud Madjidi, a civil engineering student. “I’m not satisfied with the pace of reform. The government programs they promised, such as freedom of expression and social freedom, have not been completed. Access to the Internet is no good. The economy is in bad shape. The future is unpredictable.”

Such frustration was exacerbated in November, when popular history professor Hashem Aghajari, a leading reformer, was sentenced to death for blasphemy. He had suggested that Islam could be adapted to fit the times and that holy interpretations by earlier clerics might not be sacred. The verdict sparked student demonstrations that began in Tehran and spread. The case is under court review.

The anger over Aghajari’s case was still fresh when the espionage trial of Abbas Abdi began. The pollster is accused of selling classified information to Gallup and other organizations that the hard-line judiciary claims have ties to the CIA. A poll conducted by Abdi’s company found that a wide majority of Tehran residents support reopening relations with Washington. Khamenei, the supreme leader, has called support for such diplomatic ties treason.

Reformists were dealt another blow when Ahmad Borghani, a prominent legislator who helped orchestrate Khatami’s election in 1997, was charged with misusing $25,000 in state funds given to another polling firm that shared opinion surveys with Abdi. An analysis printed in the Iran News stated: “The walls appear to be closing in on the reformers as the extreme hard-line elements in the conservative camp appear to be stepping up their campaign to eliminate their rivals.”

Mohammed Reza Faker, a conservative cleric at the Qom Seminary, predicted recently that reformists will be “demolished.” Another influential hard-line voice, the Kayhan newspaper, said the country will witness “a purge of [reformist] hypocrites.”

Two bills in parliament are being viewed as a major test for Khatami’s camp. They would give him more power to implement the constitution while diluting the influence conservatives hold over elections, the judiciary and other key institutions. The president has hinted that he might resign if the measures are vetoed by the Guardian Council, a conservative body that determines whether legislation conforms with Islamic law.

“These bills are very symbolic,” said Elaheh Koolaee, a reformist legislator. “They will show if we are progressing toward reform and civil rights.”

The conservatives are struggling with their own problems. Several clerics have stated, some rather strongly, that the Guardian Council and other conservative power centers must loosen their grip on the democratic process. Ayatollah Jalaluddin Taheri resigned in July as the Friday prayer leader in Esfahan, Iran’s second-largest city. In an open letter, he said that the country was suffering from corruption and that the ruling elite was betraying the ideals of the revolution.

Many in the conservative camp claim that Iran is the victim of a Western conspiracy to bring down the government and control Middle East oil.

“There’s a whole layer of students manipulated by foreign powers and the U.S.,” said a campus leader in the Basij, a volunteer Islamic militia that has often attacked student protesters. “They’re speaking against the supreme leader. They have $20 million of CIA money. But they are not a big threat. We have a red line in this country. If you put your feet outside it, you will be arrested.”

One Western diplomat said the conservatives could use an invasion of Iraq as a pretext for cracking down on reformists.

“The situation in Iraq could delay the reformist agenda,” the diplomat said. “The idea of a state of emergency has come back into the political discourse lately.”

The diplomat added: “We can see where Iran is and where Iran will be in the future. But we don’t know when or how it will get from here to there. It’s difficult to see what the motor for the next revolution will be ... and there are strong conservative forces around here that are prepared to shed blood, a lot of blood.”

On a recent night in a downtown mall, people were window-shopping but not buying. The owner of a china and crystal store, who gave his name as Siamak, said he was concerned more with economic indicators than with political passions. Sometimes, he said, he cuts prices by as much as 80% but still has few buyers.

Two security agents eavesdropped on a conversation Siamak was having with a visitor. Siamak wasn’t deterred. He spoke defiantly. Other people stopped and listened, including women wearing lipstick and showing off a lot of hair from beneath their scarves. Siamak wasn’t challenged. The agents walked on.

“People are drawing down on their savings accounts to survive,” he said. “The people are angry about it. What can they do? The government has no answers. Those in the government think only about enriching themselves. It’s no use running my business. It does no good. If I had the chance, I’d fly away.”