Governor Has Reason to Worry Over the Dump-Davis Effort

The recall-Gray Davis movement seems dead in the water. But this governor is so disliked and disrespected, nobody but a fool would count out the freebooters gunning for him.

And regardless of what else you think about Davis, he is no fool when it comes to guarding his political flanks. “You mention recall and he’s real focused,” says one Democratic Capitol insider.

“He’s more focused on shutting down the [recall] petition-circulators than he is on fixing the budget.”

Last week, the signature-gathering firm that one recaller had been counting on made “a business decision” not to help the anti-Davis effort. “We’d have been radioactive,” explains veteran petition manager Mike Arno.

“People would not have wanted to associate with us. We’d be seen by [Davis] as the enemy. It doesn’t take much to scare off clients.”

Instead, Arno has been lined up to circulate petitions for a transportation proposal favored by Davis and pushed by Silicon Valley manufacturers. It would lower the local vote requirement for a sales tax increase to finance transportation projects.

Political consultant David Townsend, a Davis confidant and strategist for the transportation measure, says he reminded Arno of the political reality: He couldn’t work for both the recall and the roads proposal.

There are other petition firms, but the recallers don’t have the needed $2 million to hire one anyway. They may have about $200,000.

This is a two-team effort without joint coordination. The two aren’t real friendly.

Anti-tax crusader Ted Costa says he got his dump-Davis idea from the membership of People’s Advocate, which he heads. He also has been encouraged by liberal Pat Caddell, a former “West Wing” consultant and President Jimmy Carter’s chief pollster.

“Davis is the most corrupt and most incompetent governor in the state’s history,” Caddell declares. “Citizens need to get involved and take back their state.”

Costa has submitted a recall petition to the secretary of state -- his first offering was rejected as flawed -- and hopes to soon begin circulating petitions, using volunteers and fund-raising mail. He’ll need about 900,000 signatures of registered voters.

Consultant Sal Russo, who managed Republican Bill Simon’s closer-than-expected loss to Davis in November, will borrow Costa’s petition in a separate signature-gathering drive, relying primarily on volunteers, talk-radio and the Internet.

Initially, Russo says, “I was contacted by Democrats, not Republicans. Their attitude was, they couldn’t lead this. The people who got me involved are motivated by a desire to raise taxes and increase services.”

He won’t name them. (Caddell isn’t one.)

“They said, in essence: ‘You’re on your own to open up the chest and expose the heart. If you do that, we’ll stick the dagger in.’ ”

Russo says “people feel betrayed” by Davis because of his post-election “bombshell” that revealed a badly-hemorrhaging red-ink budget. Not only will taxes likely rise, but there’ll be deep program cuts.

Polls show the damage. A recent Times survey found that Californians give Davis record-low marks for job handling: 27% approval, 64% disapproval. Two years ago -- after boom times and before being bloodied by the energy crisis -- it was reversed: 57% approval, 26% disapproval.

My theory is this: Davis’ record, though certainly tarnished, doesn’t warrant such lousy marks. To a large degree, Davis is disdained because he’s seen as so personally lacking.

Visionless. Opportunistic. Rude. Obsessive fund-raiser. He has no allies in the Capitol. The Gray Davis Sacramento knew before he ran for governor, now is becoming known around California.

Also, his sophomoric “communications strategy” -- trolling for local TV by reading to school kids or cutting highway ribbons -- portrays him as a political hack rather than a respected governor negotiating with legislative leaders or speaking profoundly to prestigious forums

Last year, he passed up a chance to polish his image by running positive campaign ads touting the Davis record. He didn’t think voters would believe such spots. So he reverted to a career-long strategy, ripping apart his opponent.

In the end, Davis persuaded voters to dislike Richard Riordan and Simon. But he failed to give people a reason to like him.

Odds are against the recall.

Republican officials are cool to the idea. It’d be insanity for a Republican to become governor when tax hikes and program cuts are inevitable.

Voters now are distracted by war, terrorists and freefalling stocks. But they’re also angry. At many things.

“If this gets on the ballot,” Democrat Townsend says, “the governor’s in for a fight.”

And the governor knows it.