Amity, Unity Mark S. Korean Leader’s Visit

President Bush and South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun, meeting for the first time Wednesday, agreed a peaceful solution that would prevent North Korea from having nuclear weapons could be achieved.

In a concession to Washington, Roh did not ask Bush to rule out the use of military force against North Korea, a senior U.S. official said. But Bush made clear he understands that war on the Korean peninsula would be “a calamity,” the official said. And the American president promised that the U.S. military presence in South Korea would be readjusted in a way that strengthened South Korean security while easing political tensions.

Both leaders were keen to project the appearance of a solid U.S.-South Korean alliance, a congenial personal relationship and a convergence of views on the future of the 37,000 U.S. troops in South Korea and dealings with the volatile North Korean regime.

The Bush administration was anxious not to repeat the chilly visit of former South Korean President Kim Dae Jung to Washington in early 2001. Roh’s team was anxious to dispel any perceptions that he is anti-American.

Contrary to the predictions of the South Korean media -- one newspaper said the U.S. and South Korea were “headed for a quickie divorce” -- both goals appear to have been achieved.

It was the first visit to the United States for Roh, a largely self-educated lawyer who sprang from South Korea’s labor movement and who has compared himself to Abraham Lincoln. Knowing of Roh’s avid interest in Lincoln, Bush gave his South Korean visitor a tour of the Lincoln Bedroom, showed him the Gettysburg Address, and pointed out a painting of Lincoln planning the reunification of the North and South after the Civil War, a piece of American history with echoes for the bitterly divided Korean peninsula.

Meeting with reporters in the White House Rose Garden, Bush referred to Roh as “our good friend” and pronounced him “an easy man to talk to.” Roh said he left home with “both concerns and hopes in my mind” but after meeting with Bush, “I have gotten rid of all my concerns and now I return to Korea only with hopes in my mind.”

The leaders agreed that U.S. forces in South Korea would be moved out of the Yongsan garrison in Seoul “at an early date” and that other forces now scattered around the country would be consolidated in regional hubs. The idea is to modernize the forces while reducing the irritant to the local population. But Bush promised the moves would be done in close consultation with the South Korean government.

A Gap to Bridge

Behind their bonhomie, the leaders came to the meeting with sharp differences on how to deal with Pyongyang. Roh has long argued that North Korea must be gently coaxed with incentives into giving up its nuclear weapons program and that any threats by the Bush administration of military action would be counterproductive. Bush is said to favor another round of diplomatic talks -- but is in no rush to get to the bargaining table.

A joint statement said the two leaders “stressed that escalatory moves by North Korea will only lead to its greater isolation and a more desperate situation in the North.... While noting that increased threats to peace and stability on the peninsula would require consideration of further steps, they expressed confidence that a peaceful resolution can be achieved.”

“Further steps” is a deliberately vague term meaning that “the two presidents trust each other and are willing to talk about whatever steps are needed,” the senior U.S. official said. Roh understands that the threat of U.S. military force against North Korea, even if it is never explicit, is helpful in achieving a diplomatic solution, the official said. But North Korea’s vulnerability is its dependence on the outside world for food, fuel and aid, and real leverage comes from the threat of a coordinated sanctions campaign by its neighbors.

“Talk of the military option they thrive on,” the official said. “Isolation is what they are afraid of.”

Until Wednesday, Roh had insisted that he wanted the military option taken off the table, and many of his supporters had railed against Bush administration hard-liners who they feared could drag South Korea into war.

“We believe we can manage North Korea if we are patient. Bush would prefer to see a regime change,” said Yoo Jay Kun, a South Korean assemblyman who has been closely allied with Roh. “But we are allies and we have to work to narrow the gap.”

With North Korea showing every sign of intending to escalate the confrontation, even some of the administration’s doves are losing hope that Pyongyang can be persuaded to give up its nuclear program on terms acceptable to the U.S.

Western analysts had predicted that, in private, Bush would probe Roh to find out what options the South Korean president might be willing to contemplate if diplomacy fails. Asked whether Roh had agreed to a coordinated effort to intercept North Korean exports of drugs, counterfeit hard currency and missile or nuclear technology -- a policy that is milder than the tough economic sanctions some U.S. hard-liners advocate to bring down Kim Jong Il’s regime -- the U.S. official replied: “It’s a level of granularity they were not going to get into. But there is broad agreement that if North Korea is engaged in illegal activities ... you don’t allow it to continue.”

Senior U.S. officials said the Bush administration is unlikely to make any significant decisions about North Korea policy until after Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visits Bush’s Texas ranch next weekend.

Moreover, the United States has yet to ascertain whether the North Koreans were bluffing when they claimed last month to have “almost finished” reprocessing plutonium for nuclear weapons. A U.S. intelligence official said Wednesday that North Korea has shown signs that it might be making preparations to reprocess, “but it’s difficult to tell with any certainty.”

“There is no indication that they are anywhere near as far along as they claim to be,” the official said.

While the Bush administration is contemplating tougher steps against North Korea, including possibly trying to interdict banned or illegal exports, it will find it easier to build multilateral support for a get-tough strategy if it has evidence that Pyongyang is indeed reprocessing its plutonium, said Robert Einhorn, a former U.S. negotiator with North Korea.

“When it is not clear whether the North Koreans are bluffing, it would be difficult to get the multilateral support,” Einhorn said. But nations like Russia and China might be more inclined to consider some form of sanctions if Pyongyang makes good on its nuclear threats, he said.

The influential Council on Foreign Relations will be releasing a report next week arguing that it will be difficult for the Bush administration to muster the support it needs for harsher measures from South Korea, Japan, Russia and China unless the U.S. is seen as having held serious negotiations with North Korea first.

Regional Discussions

U.S. envoys held what was described as preliminary talks last month in Beijing with Chinese and North Korean officials. American officials have since said that if North Korea wants further talks, Japan and South Korea will have to be at the bargaining table.

Japan has recently been making noise about taking a tougher stance toward North Korea. Among the more hard-line proposals floated recently are blocking all cash transfers from Japan to North Korea, banning ferry traffic between the two countries and limiting trade and travel between the two countries.

But analysts said this stance is largely a feint that has more to do with internal politics than any substantive shift in foreign policy.

“Japan will continue to take a very cautious approach vis-a-vis North Korea,” said Ichita Yamamoto, an Upper House lawmaker from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and a member of the Foreign Policy Defense Committee.

“It will remain difficult for Japan to be more brave in foreign policy unless it changes the foreign ministry’s mind-set,” he added. “Their DNA is, never be tough on North Korea because they could do something bad in return.”

“Sanctions will be seen by North Korea as an act of war,” said Nobuhiko Suto, a lawmaker with the opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., conservatives and Christian groups urged President Bush on Wednesday to give full consideration to North Korea leader Kim Jong Il’s human rights record and the plight of the North Korean people, in addition to security and economic concerns, when deciding U.S. policy.

An open letter signed by 32 religious and political leaders, including Paul M. Weyrich of the Coalitions for America and evangelist Chuck Colson, criticized Roh’s policy of not confronting North Korean on its human rights abuses.

“We are ... troubled that South Korean officials have sought to maintain the Pyongyang regime in power because they fear that South Korea’s economy would be harmed were the people of North Korea to become free,” the letter said.

“This regime is going to collapse,” said Michael Horowitz, a former Reagan administration official. Horowitz argued that that military action against North Korea is unnecessary, but that the U.S. and South Korea should together take other steps to hasten the demise of the Kim Jong Il government.

Times correspondents Barbara Demick in Seoul and Mark Magnier in Tokyo contributed to this report.