Helping Hands

Not even after a weekend of leftover turkey and wild Rice (a 49-19 winner over Louisiana Tech) can we say for certain USC will strengthen, lose and/or maintain its lead over Louisiana State in Monday’s bowl championship series standings.

Our stock answer in all matters involving the vagaries of BCS computers is: Wait and see.

That said, this is a good time to be holding USC stock.

What we know: USC began a bye weekend with a 2.15-point lead over LSU for the all-important No. 2 position in the BCS. If the Trojans maintain that lead through next Saturday, they will play for the national title in the Jan. 4 Sugar Bowl.

What we know: LSU swamped Arkansas (bad for USC), Tennessee beat Kentucky (good for USC), Georgia beat Georgia Tech (good for Georgia and USC), Florida State beat Florida (good for USC), Rice beat Louisiana Tech (good for USC), Hawaii beat Alabama (good for USC).

Brief but non-binding BCS summation: looks good for USC.

Down in the Southeastern Conference, Tennessee’s win over Kentucky coupled with Florida’s loss to Florida State assured that Georgia will face LSU in Saturday’s SEC title game.

This helps USC because, if LSU beats Georgia, it will lose the .40 quality-win deduction it has been receiving for a regular-season victory over the Bulldogs. Quality-win points are awarded for victories over schools in the BCS top 10. Georgia is currently No. 7 but probably would drop from the top 10 with a loss.

A BCS timeline of games that affected USC national title hopes:

LSU 55, Arkansas 24:

It wasn’t the win that hurt USC as much as how LSU won. The victory Friday enhanced the Tigers’ national reputation and left open at least the possibility No. 3 LSU might pass No. 2 USC in either the writers’ or coaches’ polls.

Any flip-flop would cause a BCS standings fluctuation.

You ask: How could anyone, coach or writer, drop USC after the Trojans won their last four games by a cumulative score of 135-38?

Well, you never can tell with pollsters.

In 1997, you’ll recall, the coaches dropped their No. 1 team, Michigan, after the Wolverines won the Rose Bowl. The coaches instead awarded their share of the national title to Nebraska in what many believe was a going-away gift to retiring coach Tom Osborne.

Unlike the faceless computers, the human polls might be affected by regional biases or conference preference.

Let’s say you’re a voting coach and LSU is in your conference.

Doesn’t it make your conference look better if you move LSU to No. 2?

Remember too that, should LSU jump USC into the No. 2 spot in the coaches’ poll, the coaches don’t have to reveal how they voted or why.

Associated Press poll votes, by contrast, are public record.

LSU’s win over Arkansas could also boost the bayou team’s computer numbers.

Last week, USC was No. 2 in four of the seven computers used in the ratings, but these things tend to be unpredictable (LSU was No. 9 in the New York Times’ ratings).

And you remember all those weeks USC was getting no margin-of-victory bounce for lop-sided victories?

This week, it is LSU that will not benefit for beating up on Arkansas.

Tennessee 20, Kentucky 7: USC needed this win because it forced a three-way tie in the SEC East and essentially sent Georgia to the title game under the conference’s tiebreaker rules.

Tennessee had won 18 straight in this series, but this turned out to be a white-knuckle finish for Trojan fans following the play-by-play on the Internet. Kentucky took an early 7-0 lead before Tennessee rallied, although the Volunteers didn’t clinch the victory until Cedric Houston’s 11-yard touchdown run with 1:27 left.

Georgia 34, Georgia Tech 17: LSU wanted Georgia to win only if Tennessee lost. Instead, the Tennessee and Georgia victories pushed the Bulldogs into the SEC title game.

You couldn’t blame Georgia’s players, and even its coach, for scoreboard watching even while they were playing Georgia Tech.

“I did see that Tennessee scored a couple of times,” Georgia Coach Mark Richt told AP afterward. “I did see they won. I can’t lie about that.”

Florida State 38, Florida 34: A Florida victory would have complicated matters for USC and even drawn Saturday night’s Miami-Pittsburgh game into the BCS fray.

Even though Tennessee won, Florida, with a victory over Florida State, would have had a slight chance to win the SEC tie-breaker. This required No. 11 Florida’s passing No. 8 Tennessee in the BCS standings. Florida trailed by 5.86 points, so it still might have been tough.

A Florida win would have also forced the BCS to release its standings privately tonight to the SEC so as not to delay news of which team LSU would be playing in the title game.

LSU Coach Nick Saban argued justly that it was unfair that his team be made to wait until Monday’s BCS release.

Hawaii 37, Alabama 29: Trojan fans might consider this a gift from the island gods. The Hawaii victory could give USC as much as a .25 difference in its BCS strength of schedule. How? USC gets rewarded because it defeated Hawaii and the team it defeated, Alabama, played LSU.

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

*--* Three’s a Crowd The teams in contention for the BCS title game: No. 1 Oklahoma (12-0) Saturday vs. Kansas State for Big 12 title * Sooners could get a rare serious challenge, having faced precious few during a 14-game winning streak dating to 2002. No. 2 USC (10-1) Saturday vs. Oregon State in season finale * Waiting is hardest part for Trojans, who may still need a resounding victory over the Beavers to sustain their championship game hopes. No. 3 Louisiana State (11-1) Saturday vs. Georgia for SEC title * Jumping USC isn’t far-fetched after blowout victory over Arkansas, but Tigers probably need a victory in SEC title game to stay alive. * Saturday’s coverage, D12-15

*--*