In the Language of Spin, Close Is Just Another Word for Toast

Sacramento

It has been my experience that when a political spin artist predicts an election will be very close, chances are good it’s going to be a blowout for the other side.

What the partisan is really saying is that if his dark-horse candidate should somehow manage to catch the front-runner, it will be just barely. Winning the election will be very difficult -- “close” being the preferable word.

The trailing candidate needs a political miracle, like the leader stumbling over a cliff and horrifying the electorate. That just doesn’t happen at the finish of a big-time race.

So when I saw Democratic national chairman Terry McAuliffe’s comment in the New York Times on Wednesday, I knew even Gov. Gray Davis’ allies were thinking the governor was a goner. McAuliffe said: “There is a chance here that Arnold Schwarzenegger is going to be governor. I think it is going to be very close.”

Davis’ strategists are seasoned pros and they’re realists. Privately, they acknowledge the governor is on political life support. His chances of surviving the recall are very slim.

All these major polls continue to deliver bad news for Davis. Each brand is different, with its own polling method. Yet, all have one thing in common. For months, none has shown support for the recall dipping below 50% of likely voters. In fact, considering the margins of error, nothing much has changed since early summer. The polls, on average, have been showing recall support in the mid-50s and opposition in the low 40s.

If nothing has changed in months, why would it in the next week?

The latest Times poll had the recall favored by 56% to 42%. It even was supported by 27% of Democrats. Davis’ gurus know he needs to pare that party defection to at least 15%.

It has come down to this: Davis’ only hope, his advisors think, is for voters to conclude they have just two options -- keep this governor around for another three years, or take too risky a gamble on a political neophyte who’s still in civics kindergarten.

But look at the Times poll. Voters intensely dislike Davis. They like Schwarzenegger. They have an unfavorable impression of Davis (62%), but a favorable reading on the actor (58%).

Moreover, experience and knowledge don’t mean a lot right now. People understand that Davis “has the best experience for the job,” but only 1% listed that as a key factor in their vote. They considered Schwarzenegger the strongest leader, one who would “reduce the influence of special interests.”

Very few voters who watched last week’s debate or read about it thought Schwarzenegger was the most knowledgeable. They gave that nod to state Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks) and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. They also thought McClintock “did the best job.” But Schwarzenegger wound up gaining the most support for governor.

Schwarzenegger was rude while interrupting and browbeating a pesky female candidate, Arianna Huffington, but his support among males doubled between a mid-September poll and this post-debate survey.

The horserace, according to the Times poll: Schwarzenegger 40%, Bustamante 32%, McClintock 15%....

Davis’ jockeys consider Bustamante a severe handicap. If Democrats think Bustamante can beat out Schwarzenegger and retain party control of the governor’s office, they theorize, many will vote to recall Davis.

Actually, they believe Bustamante has no chance of winning, and probably shouldn’t be running anyway.

They echo what many pols say: That Bustamante has run a terrible race. He waited too long to denounce racist attitudes within an organization he joined in college, got too far out praising the unpopular bill to provide illegal immigrants with driver’s licenses and -- most damaging -- took huge donations from Indian casinos, then played cute by laundering the money illegally. The lieutenant governor seemed to nap through the debate, except for when he patronized Huffington.

Desperate for money, Bustamante stepped off the campaign trail Monday and Tuesday and spent all his time dialing for dollars, collecting enough to continue running TV ads.

Davis insiders say heavy Democratic contributors are pressuring Bustamante, through top party leaders, to give it up. Call it quits and just fight the recall.

But Bustamante strategist Richie Ross denies there’s any pressure. “A complete fabrication,” Ross says. “Not one human has called.”

Regardless, the Times poll punches holes in the Davis theory about Bustamante being a handicap. Voters who support the recall were asked whether they’d switch and oppose dumping Davis if they thought Bustamante was the most likely candidate to replace him. And 34% replied that, yes, they would then vote against the recall. Davis would be spared.

But only 6% of the recall’s supporters would switch and vote against it if Schwarzenegger seemed the most likely to win. This wouldn’t be enough to save the governor.

What Davis is very close to is making history -- the worst kind for a politician.