To Victor Will Go Spoiled Prospects

Few political jobs boast the power and prestige enjoyed by California’s governor. But this is no ordinary time, and whoever emerges triumphant in the recall election Tuesday will be capturing a decidedly tarnished prize.

The Legislature remains an unruly mass of partisanship and ambition. State government’s fragile fiscal health, menaced by a budget gap likely to reach $10 billion next year, needs urgent care.

And the public? Judging by their eagerness to order up the recall of a just-elected governor, Californians are in an impatient mood. Tuesday’s winner had better deliver -- and fast.

“Whoever it is will be in the hot seat right away,” said Assemblyman Dario Frommer (D-Los Feliz).

The winner, whether it is Gov. Gray Davis or one of the three main candidates to replace him, will immediately confront significant challenges to his ability to lead.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, the leading Republican candidate, would face suspicion -- even open hostility -- from Democrats who control the Legislature and take umbrage at his claim that he has a magical cure for what ails the state.

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat, would be welcomed more warmly. But like Davis, he would struggle to woo Republican votes he needs to get a budget passed and could have trouble proving himself independent after a messy campaign financed heavily by Indian gaming tribes and unions.

As for conservative state Sen. Tom McClintock, he would probably be forced to try end runs around the Legislature to get his policies passed. Most of his fellow legislators say McClintock’s views are so extreme that he would get nowhere through ordinary means.

“Each of these guys would come in and face all of the problems Davis faced, and more,” said Larry Gerston, a political scientist at San Jose State. “And I don’t expect the voters would give them much of a honeymoon.”

Davis could, of course, defy the pollsters and hang on to his post. If that occurs, the ensuing months will probably follow a fairly predictable track. His team is in place and his centrist policies are well known.

Davis has said the recall effort humbled him, and he has promised that, if he survives, he will hold two town hall meetings each month to keep him in closer touch with ordinary people. But overall, the wheels of government would continue to spin under Davis much the way they have over the last five years.

If voters turn him out, analysts say, a chaotic summer would bleed into a chaotic fall, as the replacement governor scrambles to translate the campaign conversation into action.

Normally, a new governor has about two months to assemble a transition team and prepare to take office. There is time for an inaugural ball, time to map out priorities, time to pick out new office carpeting and get chummy with legislators before the real work begins. If the recall succeeds, however, what was once normal goes out the window.

Barring a lengthy recount, the victor will have, at most, 39 days -- and perhaps just a few weeks -- before assuming control of the nation’s biggest nonfederal bureaucracy.

During any gubernatorial transition, the chief executive’s first task is to appoint top advisors and the heads of agencies and departments overseeing everything from highway construction to environmental protection, prisons, the state lottery and health care. In all, the governor controls about 3,700 appointments.

But more pressing is the obligation to produce a state budget, which the governor must present to the Legislature by Jan. 10. This year, budget-making is more complicated than ever, clouded by problems left unresolved by the bitter summertime deal that bridged a dizzying $38-billion spending gap.

Davis aides have been working for months on a budget. A new administration would have to travel at warp speed to get one to the printer by the deadline, which comes in mid-December, about the time the governor lights the Capitol Christmas tree.

A successful transition also requires at least some cooperation between the outgoing incumbent and the incoming successor.

That dynamic could look radically different this year. A governor dumped via recall, after all, might not be in a particularly charitable mood.

Here, based on interviews with legislators, political analysts, veteran Capitol staffers and others, are a few possible scenarios for life after Oct. 7:

SCHWARZENEGGER

Most analysts predict that, after an initial blizzard of national publicity, a newly elected Gov. Schwarzenegger would face a testy reaction in the Capitol. His celebrity status might energize the electorate and land him in office, but once he became California’s 37th governor, few in Sacramento would care much about his box office success.

“He’ll come in with huge fanfare, the national entourage, all the ‘Hollywood in Sacramento’ stuff,” said state Sen. John Vasconcellos (D-Santa Clara). “But we won’t be enthralled by all that. What’s the guy believe? What’s he done? So far, all we know is, he’s made monster movies.”

Democrats who dominate the Legislature would be particularly wary, as well as grumpy about losing their party’s hold on the governor’s office. And most of the Legislature will be running for reelection next year. Those legislators will be at best preoccupied and at worst behaving in ways that benefit their quests for political survival, the state’s future be damned.

Though he would need Democratic votes to get his programs through the Legislature, Schwarzenegger might find some of the most lethal minefields in his own party. Members of the GOP’s right wing, after all, differ sharply from the moderate first-time office-seeker on abortion, the environment and a host of other issues.

Initially, Assemblyman Frommer said, the Republicans would greet him lovingly, because “they’re going to be pumped up.”

As soon as the champagne lost its bubbles, however, Schwarzenegger would be forced to tackle the state’s overwhelming budget mess. And that’s where he could create enemies overnight.

On the campaign trail, Schwarzenegger -- like most of the would-be governors -- has offered few specifics about how he would salve the state’s fiscal woes. One oft-repeated pledge, to repeal the recent increase in the vehicle licensing fee, would put the state $4 billion deeper in the hole next year. Another Schwarzenegger vow, to save the state money by renegotiating public employee contracts, was attempted by Davis early this year, but little was accomplished.

Admitting that he is no expert on state spending and revenue, Schwarzenegger has vowed to order an independent audit to assess California’s fiscal situation and help him divine solutions. But the 60 days he has allotted for the review would take him past the deadline to get his first budget to the printer, making that idea unrealistic in the short term.

With much of the state’s income locked up in employee contracts, ballot initiatives, bond payments, and federal government requirements, there is in fact little wiggle room for a governor drafting a budget. And Schwarzenegger says education -- which amounts to about 44% of the budget -- is off the table, in terms of cuts. What does that leave? Not much in terms of big-ticket items.

“The fact is, there aren’t any good options when it comes to the budget,” said Assemblywoman Jackie Goldberg (D-Los Angeles). “You either cut the most important programs in the state or you raise taxes. So it’s happy birthday, you’re governor now, but whatever you do, you will quickly become unpopular.”

Schwarzenegger has not ruled out a tax increase, saying that he might consider one during an unspecified state emergency. Democrats hope that statement means that, if elected, he would get to Sacramento, declare that things are even worse than he thought and push a budget that includes some sort of revenue increase.

Schwarzenegger’s campaign co-chairman, former GOP Gov. Pete Wilson, did just that in 1991, when California was in similar economic distress. But conservatives have never forgiven Wilson, and Republican legislators whose votes would be needed for such a move today appear more steadfast in their anti-tax position than they were then.

Whatever course he steered, on the budget and other delicate issues, such as workers’ compensation reform, health care and energy, Schwarzenegger’s challenge would be to avoid gridlock by engaging the Legislature’s help. One analyst suggested the actor might have luck with a tough-guy strategy befitting his movie image.

“I think a Gov. Schwarzenegger has the potential to go to these hard-line liberals and conservatives, knock their heads together and say, ‘Stop staking out these indefensible, immovable positions and get with me to produce a real budget,’ ” said Tim Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies at Cal State Sacramento. As a hammer, Hodson said, Schwarzenegger could threaten to campaign against recalcitrant legislators, a strategy that could work if his star power endures.

But polls show that, if he is elected, Schwarzenegger may not receive a dramatic mandate, making his political leverage iffy. Indeed, more Californians may vote to retain Davis than for any particular successor.

And there is peril for Schwarzenegger in storming into Sacramento like the well-armed superheroes he plays on film. Already he has irked some legislators by bashing career politicians and touting himself as an outsider with the right stuff to fix what ails the state.

“If he thinks he’s going to come in here and be Mr. Terminator, he will have his head handed to him,” warned Senate leader John Burton (D-San Francisco), a key player in any budget deal. “These guys who want to jump in and straighten everything out overnight have something coming. It’s like me taking over a movie studio and saying, ‘I’m going to clean this place out’ when I don’t know a grip from a whatever.”

BUSTAMANTE

Whatever else one says about Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the best known Democrat on the replacement ballot, it seems clear that his transition would be the least abrupt.

Not that the lieutenant governor -- or “Lite Gov,” as some derisively call him and others who have played gubernatorial understudy -- does a whole lot to prepare for a promotion. But Bustamante knows Sacramento, knows legislators -- many of whom he worked with as a legislator from Fresno -- and knows the ins and outs of budgeting from his time as Assembly speaker.

“At least with Cruz,” Burton summed up, “you don’t have to show him where the men’s room is.”

A Democrat with a moderate philosophy like Davis’ -- even if he has canted left in the recall race -- Bustamante could take his time appointing new department heads and agency secretaries as Davis’ holdovers allow him to focus on more urgent priorities. He would probably retain many of his staffers from the lieutenant governor’s office, and it wouldn’t take him long to move -- he would walk about 20 yards to his new digs.

Bustamante might keep Davis’ budget team in place, allowing preparation of next year’s spending plan to flow ahead.

But an easy logistical transition does not mean Bustamante’s reign would be a peaceful one. Among other things, he would confront the ire of Republicans cranky over having come so tantalizingly close to seizing the governor’s chair -- and convinced that Bustamante is merely a rounder, friendlier shade of Gray.

Thus, unless he won by a large margin, which pollsters call unlikely, Bustamante would encounter the same political reality Davis has faced in trying to solve the budget crisis: a minority party capable of thwarting his efforts at every turn.

“He’s never been seen as a visionary, or a particularly strong leader,” said state Sen. Richard Ackerman (R-Irvine). “I don’t see him as much different than Davis. I don’t see him having a very easy time of it at all.”

Bustamante also might be haunted by criticism that he is an opportunist who initially pledged to stay out of the recall sweepstakes in a show of unity with other Democratic Party leaders, then changed his mind.

“It’s a schizophrenic message he’s put out: ‘Vote no on the recall, but then be sure to vote for me,’ ” said Barbara O’Connor, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Media at Cal State Sacramento. “It’s hard to distinguish yourself as anything but the governor’s surrogate.”

Bustamante’s close ties with Indian gaming tribes, which have contributed heavily to his run for governor, have also drawn unflattering comparisons with Davis, whose downturn was hastened by allegations that he was a captive of special interests that financed his campaigns.

On the budget, Bustamante has put forth a fairly detailed plan, one that relies heavily on boosting taxes on cigarettes, alcohol, commercial property and the wealthy. He would partially roll back the vehicle licensing fee increase, but leave it in place for the most costly vehicles.

GOP leaders dismiss his ideas as unacceptable. And even fellow Democrats say Bustamante isn’t likely to fare much better than Davis in selling a budget that contains tax hikes.

“I think Bustamante would fight for the right things,” said Assemblyman Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento), “but the Republicans are so locked down ideologically that it’s hard to feel optimistic.”

Bustamante argues that his warm relations with the Legislature -- as opposed to Davis’ record as an imperious leader with few friends in either house -- would pay off in good will and votes for his budget.

McCLINTOCK

State Sen. Don Perata (D-Oakland) thinks of his Republican colleague, the unswervingly conservative Tom McClintock, as Mt. Rushmore: “It’s there, it’s been there, it’s going to stay there and it ain’t moving.” Rather than compromise on anything, Perata said, “Tom will simply wait for the rest of the world to come around to his position.”

Indeed, McClintock has already announced that if he is elected governor and the Legislature refuses to go along with his budget proposals -- a virtual certainty -- he will simply take them to the people in the form of ballot measures.

“That’s a great way to start a relationship,” Perata joked. “But everybody expected that from Tom.”

Polls suggest that McClintock’s chances of becoming governor are increasingly remote. Most analysts see him as little more than a potential spoiler of fellow Republican Schwarzenegger’s Sacramento ambitions.

But if he were to pull off an upset, McClintock would be well-equipped to govern. A career politician, he knows how to work the levers of government and is well acquainted with the intricacies of budgeting.

His problem would come when his conservative views inevitably collide with the philosophy held by the legislative majority. During his 19 years in Sacramento, he has voted for a state budget only a handful of times. And his stands on a panoply of other issues, from the environment to social policies, put him on the far-right frontier of Republicanism.

His supporters insist he would overcome such problems by using his ample experience and creative methods to get things done: “People say he’s extreme, but I don’t think there’s a better mind in California to fix our fiscal problems and find every ounce of waste in government,” said Assemblyman Tony Strickland (R-Moorpark).

Democrats, however, predict a McClintock administration would mean statehouse paralysis. Although the feisty candidate says he would push his policies through ballot initiatives, that is hardly a practical recipe for governing. For one thing, it takes months to qualify an initiative for a public vote. And what happens in the interim?

“I think you’re looking at total gridlock, because Tom is a loner. It’s not in his nature to work with people,” Frommer said. “It’s fine to be out there in the wilderness standing on principle and shouting about things, but it’s a very different thing to govern.”

McClintock’s ideas for mending the budget crisis rest upon a no-new-taxes foundation. Given that, and the spending gap looming next year, he would have a lot of ground to cover through cuts and other savings.

His first step would be to slash spending across the board by 9.5%. But that would require the Legislature to override a variety of constitutional and statutory mandates that automatically set spending levels. With the Legislature dominated by Democrats, many of whom find McClintock’s views abhorrent, that’s pretty much a guaranteed nonstarter.

“Not going to happen,” said Vasconcellos, California’s longest-serving legislator. “Not on my watch.”

All things considered, Frommer said, the governorship is hardly an enviable prize.

“California is on the edge of political meltdown,” he said. “Who would want that job right now?”