Bigger, Better, That's About the Size of It

By Mark Heisler

Oct. 27, 2003 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

Wouldn’t this be a great league if only it ended at the Mississippi?

The day Michael Jordan left the Chicago Bulls, the NBA began tilting to the West, and the imbalance has only gotten worse. Seeing as how Jordan left the Bulls in 1999, this is no small problem for the league. Worse, it tilts more dramatically each season, as the West powers keep gearing up to deal with each other, and the East teams try to get it together.

West teams have been pursuing big men since Shaquille O’Neal went to the Lakers in 1996, and the process is ongoing.

Brad Miller, who was an All-Star center in Indiana, will be in Sacramento. Alonzo Mourning, who will be the best in the East if he’s healthy, almost went to the Dallas Mavericks before signing with New Jersey (Dallas owner Mark Cuban claiming afterward that Mourning told him he didn’t want to deal with all the West’s big men.)

East teams, meanwhile, have a bad habit of just preparing to beat each other. Philadelphia General Manager Billy King said as much this summer -- “This is the East” -- when asked why he was projecting 36-year-old Derrick Coleman as his center.

In the West, the best teams are all gigantic, and you can’t play in the elite unless you’re huge. The Lakers were physical enough with O’Neal, who will now play alongside Karl Malone, a fearsome presence, even at age 40. The Kings have three big men who have been All-Stars, Chris Webber, Vlade Divac and Miller.

The San Antonio Spurs have the two-time defending MVP, Tim Duncan, and now, instead of the aged David Robinson, a young 7-footer, Rasho Nesterovic.

The Minnesota Timberwolves used to be tall and slender but have fleshed themselves out, impressively, adding Michael Olowokandi to play alongside Kevin Garnett in another 7-foot tandem.

The Mavericks had 7-6 Shawn Bradley, 7-foot Dirk Nowitzki and 6-11 Raef LaFrentz and were still considered a finesse team in the West. Now LaFrentz is in Boston, and Dallas, which won 60 games last season, isn’t considered an elite team.

Here’s a team-by-team look in predicted order of finish:

SAN ANTONIO

2002-03 record: 60-22, first.

Offense: 95.8 (12). Defense: 90.4 (3).

Coming: Rasho Nesterovic, Hedo Turkoglu, Ron Mercer, Robert Horry, Anthony Carter.

Going: David Robinson, Speedy Claxton, Steve Kerr, Danny Ferry and Stephen Jackson.

Outlook: Plans A, B and C went by the boards last summer so this is about Plan D. With $14 million in cap room, the champions went after Jason Kidd and Karl Malone, who spurned them. The real hope is their young guards, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Both are talented and brash; if they keep coming, this will still be a powerhouse.

Prediction: If it’s not, they can drop Mercer, Turkoglu and/or Horry, whose contracts are expiring, and go shopping again.

SPURS

Projected Starters

G Tony Parker

G Manu Ginobili

F Bruce Bowen

F Tim Duncan

C Rasho Nesterovic

MINNESOTA

Offense: 98.1 (7). Defense: 96 (18).

Coming: Latrell Sprewell, Sam Cassell, Michael Olowokandi, Mark Madsen, Fred Hoiberg.

Going: Rasho Nesterovic, Kendall Gill, Marc Jackson, Loren Woods.

Outlook: Talk about being overdue for a break. The team that endured Christian Laettner and J.R. Rider, was abandoned by Stephon Marbury, made an example of by Commissioner David Stern and then, after never having home-court advantage, clinched it just in time to host the Lakers, finally saw something go right.

Prediction: Coach Flip Saunders has to get them to play together, but the key is leadership on the floor. With Garnett there, this should happen

TIMBERWOLVES

Projected Starters

G Sam Cassell

G Latrell Sprewell

F Wally Szczerbiak

F Kevin Garnett

C Michael Olowokandi

SACRAMENTO

2002-03 record: 59-23, third.

Offense: 101.7 (3). Defense: 95.2 (17).

Coming: Brad Miller, Anthony Peeler, Tony Massenburg, Darius Songaila.

Going: Scot Pollard, Jim Jackson, Hedo Turkoglu, Keon Clark.

Outlook: Our semi-civilized neighbors to the north won 59 games with Mike Bibby sitting out 27, Bobby Jackson 23, Webber 15 and Peja Stojakovic 10, suggesting the uncrowned Kings may have been the best team in the league. Then they lost Webber for good after taking the home-court advantage from the Mavericks in the second round, and it was just one more in the Kings’ long series of hard-luck stories. Webber, coming off knee surgery, may not be back before Christmas.

Prediction: The sun can’t shine on the same dog every year, can it?

KINGS

Projected Starters

G Mike Bibby

G Doug Christie

F Peja Stojakovic

F Brad Miller

C Vlade Divac

LAKERS

2002-03 record: 50-32, fifth.

Offense: 100.4 (4). Defense: 98 (23).

Coming: Karl Malone, Gary Payton, Horace Grant, Bryon Russell.

Going: Robert Horry, Brian Shaw, Samaki Walker, Mark Madsen, Tracy Murray.

Outlook: No one ever saw a starting lineup this devastating -- on paper -- and no one ever may, after an exhibition season in which everything came apart at the seams. As far as basketball goes, they’re bigger and deeper with four likely Hall of Famers in their starting lineup. O’Neal is in playing shape for the opener, for a change. Of course, their chemistry, with O’Neal and Bryant feuding openly on the eve of the season, is something else.

Prediction: Not to be an alarmist about this, but the Lakers as you knew them are over.

LAKERS

Projected Starters

G Gary Payton

G Kobe Bryant

F Devean George

F Karl Malone

C Shaquille O’Neal

DALLAS

2002-03 record: 60-22, second.

Offense: 103 (1). Defense: 95.2 (16).

Coming: Antawn Jamison, Antoine Walker, Tony Delk, Danny Fortson, Travis Best.

Going: Nick Van Exel, Raef Lafrentz, Popeye Jones, Adrian Griffin, Evan Eschmeyer, Avery Johnson.

Outlook: Mark Cuban’s first big move upon taking over in 2000 was to sign Dennis Rodman. Rodman proceeded to blow up what had been a promising drive to make the playoffs. This off-season represents the Mavericks’ worst moment since. Spurned by Karl Malone and Alonzo Mourning, they decided to forget about big men and take anyone they could get, like Jamison, a ‘tweener, and Walker, a knucklehead.

Prediction: Let’s see how Cuban handles their descent. Prediction: Not well

MAVERICKS

Projected Starters

G Steve Nash

G Michael Finley

F Dirk Nowitzki

F Antoine Walker

C Danny Fortson

PHOENIX

2002-3 record: 44-38, eighth.

Offense: 95.5 (13). Defense: 94.4 (14).

Coming: Scott Williams, Brevin Knight.

Going: Bo Outlaw, Jake Tsakilidis.

Outlook: After their misadventures when they tried to rebuild around Jason Kidd, Penny Hardaway and Tom Gugliotta, and their pratfall after they traded Kidd and fell from 51 wins to 36, the Suns pulled a rabbit named Amare Stoudemire out of the hat last season and rediscovered their future. Stoudemire (20), Marion (25) and Stephon Marbury (26) make a promising nucleus. Jake Voskuhl gives them a solid center but in the West, that’s not good enough. Still focused on their future, they drafted talented foreign players Zarko Cabarkapa and Leandro Barbosa.

Prediction: They’re ready to move up. Well, a little.

SUNS

Projected Starters

G Stephon Marbury

G Penny Hardaway

F Shawn Marion

F Amare Stoudemire

C Scott Williams

PORTLAND

2002-03 record: 50-32, sixth.

Offense: 95.2 (15). Defense: 92.5 (T10).

Coming: President Steve Patterson, GM John Nash, Tracy Murray.

Going: GM Bob Whitsitt, Scottie Pippen, Arvydas Sabonis.

Outlook: Meet the new, nice Jail, er, Trail Blazers. After the usual arrests and a $100 million loss that may be the biggest in sports history, owner Paul Allen, who seemed to pick up basketball more slowly than he did software, decided it was finally time for a shakeup. In came a new regime dedicated to citizenship, after which Rasheed Wallace, Qyntel Woods and Zach Randolph, who may not have gotten the memo, were all arrested anew.

Prediction: The big question is what will happen when Wallace becomes a free agent next summer.

TRAIL BLAZERS

Projected Starters

G Damon Stoudamire

G Bonzi Wells

F Rasheed Wallace

F Zach Randolph

C Dale Davis

HOUSTON

2002-03 record: 43-39, ninth.

Offense: 93.8 (T20). Defense: 92.3 (T7).

Coming: Coach Jeff Van Gundy, Eric Piatkowski, Adrian Griffin.

Going: Coach Rudy Tomjanovich, Glen Rice, James Posey.

Outlook: Tomjanovich wasn’t much with X’s and O’s, but he built and coached their 1994-1995 title-winners and was coming off a bout with cancer, besides, leading everyone to believe he’d get one more season. Surprise! Owner Les Alexander, who had told the world this was the next dynasty, kicked him out the door instead and hired Van Gundy. This was unseemly but an upgrade. The 7-foot-5 Yao Ming was a revelation as a rookie.

Prediction: Elite status is a ways off, but Van Gundy will, at least, get the Rockets back in contention.

ROCKETS

Projected Starters

G Steve Francis

G Cuttino Mobley

F Eddie Griffin

F Maurice Taylor

C Yao Ming

CLIPPERS

Offense: 93.8 (T20). Defense: 97.9 (22).

Coming: Coach Mike Dunleavy, Predrag Drobjnak, Eddie House, No. 1 pick Chris Kaman, Glen Rice.

Going: Coach Alvin Gentry, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Michael Olowokandi, Eric Piatkowski, Sean Rooks, Cherokee Parks.

Outlook: Haven’t we seen this before? Oh yeah, annually. Of their eight free agents, six fled, and two (Elton Brand, Corey Maggette) signed offer sheets with other teams but had to return when the Clippers matched. They still have talent. Dunleavy will use 10 players and press. Too bad he wasn’t here when they had more of it.

Prediction: With a new sense of direction and a lot of pent-up competitiveness after last season’s nightmare, they could be a surprise.

CLIPPERS

Projected Starters

G Marko Jaric

G Quentin Richardson

F Corey Maggette

F Elton Brand

C Predrag Drobnjak

SEATTLE

2002-record: 40-42, 10th.

Offense: 92.1 (23). Defense: 92.3 (6).

Coming: Antonio Daniels.

Going: Kevin Ollie, Elden Campbell, Predrag Drobjnak.

Outlook: Starbucks magnate Howard Schultz was hoping to sign Jason Kidd with the money he got by letting Gary Payton go. Instead, he traded Payton for Ray Allen, who’s making $13.5 million this season, and there went the rebuilding project. They had two lottery picks, but that didn’t go so well, either. Their first, Nick Collison, turned out to have a shoulder injury and is out for the season. Their second, Luke Ridnour, missed most of the preseason because of a stomach injury.

Prediction: They have a nice collection of shooting guards and small forwards, but that won’t cut it.

SUPERSONICS

Projected Starters

G Brent Barry

G Ray Allen

F Rashard Lewis

F Vladimir Radmanovic

C Jerome James

MEMPHIS

2002-03 record: 28-54, 12th.

Offense: 97.5 (8). Defense: 100.7 (27).

Coming: Bo Outlaw, James Posey, Jake Tsakilidis.

Going: Brevin Knight.

Outlook: At 0-8 in his debut in Memphis, Jerry West shocked everyone by bringing in 70-year-old Hubie Brown, who’d been a TV commentator for 16 years. Brown put them through an old-school indoctrination while they fell to 0-13, then finished 28-41, breaking the franchise record for victories by five. What do they do for an encore? That’s going to be a problem because although there’s talent (Pau Gasol, Mike Miller, a reformed Jason Williams), this is still a young, small team.

Prediction: While Mr. Clutch thinks up his next move, they may be able to beat their best finish, No. 12 in the West.

GRIZZLIES

Projected Starters

G Jason Williams

G James Posey

F Mike Miller

F Pau Gasol

C Jake Tsakalidis

GOLDEN STATE

Offense: 102.4 (2). Defense: 103.6 (29).

Coming: Speedy Claxton, Nick Van Exel, Cliff Robinson, Popeye Jones, Calbert Cheaney, Avery Johnson, Evan Eschmeyer.

Going: Gilbert Arenas, Earl Boykins, Antawn Jamison, Danny Fortson, Bob Sura, Jiri Welsch, Chris Mills.

Outlook: No one rebuilds like the Warriors, or as often. After a whirlwind season under new Coach Eric Musselman in which they actually made a run at the playoffs, they lost Arenas, Boykins and traded Jamison for Van Exel, who doesn’t want to be there. They insist they won’t move Van Exel but may not realize how much trouble an unhappy Van Exel can be.

Prediction: They’re kind of like Clippers North. There’s nothing wrong that a new owner wouldn’t take care of.

WARRIORS

Projected Starters

G Nick Van Exel

G Jason Richardson

F Mike Dunleavy

F Troy Murphy

C Erick Dampier

DENVER

2002-03 record: 17-65, 14th.

Offense: 84.2 (29). Defense: 92.4 (9).

Coming: No. 1 pick Carmelo Anthony, Andre Miller, Jon Barry, Earl Boykins.

Going: Juwan Howard.

Outlook: With the second-worst record, they drew the No. 3 pick, but at this point, their rookie, Anthony, is way ahead of the No. 1 and 2 selections, LeBron James and Darko Milicic. Anthony led the Nuggets at 19 a game in the preseason, shot 50% and made three-pointers too. They have more young prospects who are coming too, such as Nene Hilario (who is now just Nene) and Nikoloz Tskitishvili, but they have a long way to go. With $18 million in cap space, it wasn’t quite the off-season of their dreams.

Prediction: On the bright side, they’ll have another high pick next spring too.

NUGGETS

Projected Starters

G Andre Miller

G Voshon Lenard

F Carmelo Anthony

F Nene

C Marcus Camby

UTAH

Offense: 94.7 (17). Defense: 92.3 (T7).

Coming: Keon Clark, Carlos Arroyo.

Going: John Stockton, Karl Malone, Tony Massenburg, Calbert Cheaney.

Outlook: After years of wondering when Malone and Stockton would go, it actually happened. Of course, if the Jazz knew rebuilding would be this hard, they might still be there. With $21 million of cap space, the Jazz had one little problem: getting anyone to take any of it. Now it’s Matt Harpring, Andre Kirilenko and even more humble role players. Things are so bad, Greg Ostertag volunteered to be the new team leader, noting, “It’s kind of all on me.” Showing how impressed he was, Coach Jerry Sloan is keeping Ostertag on the bench, backing up Jarron Collins.

Prediction: It was nice knowing you.

JAZZ

Projected Starters

G Raul Lopez

G Matt Harpring

F Keon Clark

F Andrei Kirilenko

C Jarron Collins

COACHING CAROUSEL

The NBA opens with 11 teams employing new head coaches, with nine of the 11 changes taking place in the East and six in the eight-team Central Division. A look:

COACH TEAM CAREER RECORD

SWITCHED TEAMS

* LARRY BROWN Detroit Pistons 879-685 in 20 seasons

* RICK CARLISLE Indiana Pacers 100-64 in two seasons

* PAUL SILAS Cleveland Cavaliers 286-313, eight seasons

THEY’RE BACK

* JEFF VAN GUNDY Houston Rockets 248-172 in seven seasons

* MIKE DUNLEAVY Clippers 398-390 in 10 seasons

* EDDIE JORDAN Washington Wizards 33-64 in two seasons

* TIM FLOYD New Orleans Hornets 49-190 in four seasons

WELCOME TO THE LEAGUE

* STAN VAN GUNDY Miami Heat NA