The Only Sure Thing Is the Air of Uncertainty

California’s extraordinary election -- the first gubernatorial recall in state history -- is ending much as it began, in a fog of doubt that makes these last campaign days as urgent as they are unpredictable.

After tens of millions of dollars and a quarter ton of sound bites, the first question on the ballot -- whether to boot Democratic Gov. Gray Davis -- is still unsettled, though even supporters admit that he is in serious jeopardy.

The race to succeed Davis, should he fall, also remains fluid. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democrat Cruz Bustamante are the two main contenders. But Bustamante appears to be slipping and does not have enough cash on hand to continue advertising through election day. Republican Tom McClintock, resisting pressure to exit for Schwarzenegger’s sake, is also scrambling for money.

The only sure thing, now that the legal wrangling has ended, is an election date -- Oct. 7 -- just nine days away.

“It defies logic. It defies everything,” said Gale Kaufman, a Democratic strategist who is not involved in the contest, but who, like many others, has been captivated by the spectacle. “Every prediction that all of us made a month ago hasn’t come to pass. No one thought it would be this tight, both on the yes-no question and the candidate race.”

Not only are there large numbers of voters still undecided, Kaufman said, “clearly, there’s still a lot of switching going on in people’s minds about the candidates.”

With no more debates planned, the hopefuls are scattering throughout the state, rallying their loyalists as partisans and allies switch on their phone banks and begin distributing mailers that urge the faithful to the polls.

Over the next few days, even Californians used to an onslaught of home-stretch TV spots may be a bit overwhelmed by the $10 million or so in advertising -- “bumper-to-bumper candidates and issues,” as one strategist put it -- that will spill from their televisions.

While the race is quite unlike anything California has seen, the two headliners -- Schwarzenegger and Davis -- are attempting to shove aside their party rivals and make the contest something more conventional: a two-man fight between the actor and the incumbent. Strategists for both candidates insist that would work to their advantage.

The governor’s camp maintains that voters will flinch at the idea of a novice at the helm in Sacramento, and thus reject the recall to keep the experienced, if unpopular, Davis in office. The strategy presumes the failure of Bustamante -- but relations between the two Democrats have long been frosty.

The Schwarzenegger team says the focus on Davis will underline the actor’s outsider image and promise of change -- and negate the fight over ideology and experience that a continued battle with McClintock would entail.

Both can’t be right; success will probably be determined by who best frames the debate over the next nine days. Strategists for the two sides agree: If voters see the choice Oct. 7 as change vs. the status quo, Schwarzenegger will probably win. If they see their choice as experience vs. risk, Davis will very likely survive the toughest fight of his 30-year political career.

But even that formula assumes a certain leap of logic: Voters could, after all, look at Davis and Schwarzenegger and find both wanting.

“No one really knows,” said campaign consultant Richie Ross, who insisted that Lt. Gov. Bustamante, his client, could profit from the Davis-Schwarzenegger fight. “There are so many moving parts and imponderables.”

One is the recall itself. If Davis wins 50% of the vote, he will stay in office and the replacement race will have amounted to little more than an expensive state-sanctioned popularity contest.

Opinion surveys have consistently shown the governor falling short of the majority he needs, though the overall trend has moved in his direction and put Davis within hailing distance of 50%. Many of the governor’s critics are frustrated that he still has a shot at prevailing and they blame Republicans, saying the GOP has lost sight of its original goal.

“He may squeak through because his detractors have been distracted from focusing on it and, of course, he’s making nice with the world today,” said Ken Khachigian, a GOP veteran of more than three decades in California politics.

For weeks, while the replacement candidates focused on their individual efforts, Davis campaigned largely unchallenged. He used the opportunity to cast the recall in sharply partisan terms, with the help of national Democrats, like former President Clinton, who appeared on his behalf.

“Republicans failed to speak up and say, ‘Wait a minute. You don’t pay taxes in California. You don’t pay interest on our bonds. You’re not responsible for the Davis disaster,’ ” Khachigian said. “All of those are elements of our guys’ not making the case.”

That changed a few days ago, when Schwarzenegger began airing a pro-recall spot, the first of the eight-week campaign. Strategists for the actor see the two causes -- ousting Davis and electing Schwarzenegger -- as inextricably linked.

“Arnold is the clear alternative,” said consultant Mike Murphy. “The better we do, the better recall does.”

The Schwarzenegger campaign, which is flooding the TV airwaves with roughly $2 million a week in ads, will run two commercials promoting his candidacy for every yes-on-recall spot broadcast through election day. After promising a positive campaign, the actor on Tuesday began airing his first attack advertising, with more expected.

“It’s coming down to: Do you want the same with Gray in Sacramento, or do you want Arnold?” Murphy said. “They overestimate the fact that people are going to give Gray some kind of third shot.”

For weeks, Schwarzenegger and his Republican Party allies have sought to pressure McClintock to quit the race, fearing he could splinter the GOP vote. But now the candidate and his team have adopted a new tack: ignoring the legislator, in hopes that the focus on Davis will make McClintock appear irrelevant.

For his part, the state senator from Thousand Oaks is clinging to a small but committed slice of the Republican electorate, which could be less than 10% or more than 20% of the vote, depending on turnout. His prospects have been bolstered by support from national conservatives attracted by his underdog run.

The senator’s biggest problem at the moment is money, with the candidate scrambling to boost his meager TV budget -- about $200,000 -- by a few hundred thousand or so. In addition, Indian tribes are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on pro-McClintock ads.

“We think we’re going to get our message out,” said campaign director John Feliz. “Certainly we are in this race to the end.”

The one huge advantage enjoyed by McClintock and the other 134 contenders is this: They need only one more vote than the next candidate to win -- presumably less than the 50% threshold Davis needs to pass.

Strategists for the governor say the last bit of ground will be the toughest to make up. A big part of Davis’ problem is disaffection within Democratic ranks.

He won reelection with just 47% of the vote last year, as many Democrats sat out the contest, and polls have consistently shown that as many as one in five Democrats back the recall.

To help win them back, anti-recall forces began Friday to air a TV spot that cast the election in the most starkly partisan terms yet. The advertisement offers a recitation of accomplishments that reads like a list of party wishes -- tougher gun laws, stricter environmental regulations, expanded family and medical leave, an extension of gay rights -- all achieved “under a Democratic governor.”

“The Republicans fought against each of these issues,” the ad concludes. “If they get rid of the governor, what do you think they’ll try to get rid of next?”

At the same time, Davis on Friday began running his own attack spot, which defends his record on spending and challenges Schwarzenegger’s fitness to serve. The move is risky; by going on the attack, Davis may remind voters of his penchant for negative campaigning, one of the things that has driven much of the sentiment behind the recall.

But it also moves the race closer to the one-on-one matchup that the Davis team professes to want. Said Garry South, one of the governor’s main strategists, “Democrats have got to come to grips with the notion ... if they vote to oust Gray Davis, they’re going to get Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.”

Bustamante has struggled to regain his footing after a less than sparkling performance in Wednesday’s debate. He lost a court fight over a campaign-finance loophole he was using to boost fund-raising, and has taken a beating for the millions he accepted from Indian gaming interests.

Now, he is struggling to raise the money he needs to stay on the air through Oct. 7.

While Bustamante has enough cash to broadcast his ads through Wednesday and a final burst of spots on the eve of the election, he is short of the funds needed for Thursday through Sunday, Ross said.

Still, the advisor suggested that there might be another surprise or two in this most unusual contest.

“I’m not sure that’s so smart,” Ross said of efforts to make the race a Davis-Schwarzenegger fight, with all the muck flying between the two.

“I’m not sure, at the end of the day, they’re not helping us and McClintock.”