Pain by numbers

ABC will have a lot of returning shows on its lineup this fall. That’s the good news for Steve McPherson, the former studio boss who was tapped as the network’s chief programmer last week.

But it’s also the bad news. “The George Lopez Show” isn’t attracting legions of viewers, and the ratings for “Less Than Perfect” are just that. Even so, “Lopez” has already been renewed for next season, and “Perfect” is considered a safe bet. Other series either guaranteed or likely to come back include such middling performers as “8 Simple Rules for Dating My Teenage Daughter,” the critically acclaimed spy drama “Alias” and, for its 12th and final season, the aging hit “NYPD Blue.”

Indeed, more than 80% of ABC’s fall lineup probably is already booked, network sources say, often by existing series that aren’t setting any Nielsen records. And that’s why seasoned analysts, agents and rival executives suggest that, for all of McPherson’s skill at picking shows (in his earlier post at Touchstone Television, he was an early backer of “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation”), no one should expect a miracle turnaround at ABC come September. McPherson faces years of hard work rebuilding a lineup that has fallen into serious disrepair since 1999-2000, when ABC, riding high on the game show “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire,” last won the television season.

“It’s not going to happen overnight,” Bob Levinson, worldwide head of TV at International Creative Management, says of ABC’s turnaround. Levinson views McPherson’s appointment as a positive for the network but adds: “They can’t move the [ratings] needle that much for next year.”

Over the long term, though, there’s some room for optimism at ABC. While the network’s current fourth-place performance is discouraging by almost any measure, TV history provides several examples of network bosses who faced similarly daunting odds and came out on top.

The late Brandon Tartikoff is credited as rescuing NBC from the doldrums with such 1980s hits as “The Cosby Show” and “Cheers.” And CBS was drifting badly when former TV studio chief Leslie Moonves was handed the reins in 1995; the network is now America’s most watched, with such hits as “Survivor” and “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation.”

What McPherson needs is to find at least one big new hit from ABC’s current crop of 12 comedy and 14 drama pilots. He doesn’t have much margin for error because there’s probably room for only four hours of new programming on the fall schedule (an additional three hours per week will open up in January, after “Monday Night Football” completes its season). Nor does McPherson have much time to kick around alternatives, as ABC announces its lineup to advertisers in New York next month.

The comedy choices include high-concept vehicles starring Jessica Simpson, John Stamos and Jennifer Love Hewitt. The drama alternatives include “Lost,” a tropical drama from writer-producer J.J. Abrams (“Alias”), and “Desperate Housewives,” a quirky drama set on a suburban cul-de-sac. Plus, Steven Bochco of “NYPD Blue” is working on “Blind Justice,” a cop procedural featuring a blind detective, and David E. Kelley, writer-producer of “The Practice,” has “The De Marco Affairs,” about the lives and loves of three sisters. ABC has already committed a one-hour slot for a spinoff of “The Practice” starring James Spader.

“They have pretty good options,” said Bill Carroll, who analyzes network and syndicated programming on behalf of local stations for Katz Media in New York. “Now, of course, everything looks good on paper, [but] the advantage is that a number of these [pilots] are developed by Touchstone,” which means that McPherson, as the outgoing Touchstone boss, should already have a good sense of the shows’ strengths and weaknesses.

ABC has had some recent luck with sitcoms, such as “According to Jim.” ABC Entertainment President Susan Lyne, McPherson’s predecessor, successfully revived the “TGIF” block of Friday comedies, thanks in part to the first-year show “Hope & Faith.” McPherson has plenty of experience with the genre, having helped develop such shows as “Jim,” “My Wife and Kids” and NBC’s “Scrubs” while at Touchstone.

Dramas, however, have been a near-total disaster for ABC. The roster of recent failures includes “Karen Sisco,” “Line of Fire,” “10-8,” “The D.A.” and “Stephen King’s Kingdom Hospital.” Clearly, the network needs to find a new drama that can compete with the likes of CBS’ “CSI” or NBC’s “Law & Order” franchises.

McPherson, who turned down requests to comment for this article, might also strike gold with something in the “reality” genre. “The Bachelor,” an unscripted dating show, remains one of ABC’s top performers, and the network has also done well with the cosmetic-surgery hit “Extreme Makeover” and its home-improvement cousin, “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition.” All three programs are expected to return for the fall. McPherson may well plug Mondays with new reality shows once the midseason rolls around, one network source said. Such series are relatively inexpensive to produce and often deliver big audiences from the first episode, especially among the young adults prized by advertisers.

“With reality programming, you can get a hit pretty quickly, if you’re lucky,” says TV advertising analyst Jack Myers.

But much will depend on whether McPherson’s bosses at Walt Disney Co., which owns ABC, give him the chance to experiment and avoid second-guessing his decisions.

Many agents and writer-producers said a key factor in ABC’s recent failures was a top-heavy management team that kept executives at odds with one another over programming decisions, spawning corporate infighting and muddled decision-making.

The hope, according to Levinson and others, is that McPherson, like Moonves and Tartikoff before him, will have the authority to learn from his own mistakes and build a hit schedule bit by bit.

“The biggest problem that faced ABC in the past few years is that there was no unified front,” Levinson says. Now, “if they are able to find a program that has a spark to it ... they can make sure that program has every opportunity of succeeding.”

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ABC’S STATS

Current rank of ABC for the 2003-04 season, out of the big 4 networks*: 4

Number of ABC shows in Top 10 for 2003-04 season: 0

Number of years since ABC had the top-rated comedy or drama series for a season (“Roseanne”)**: 14

Number of years since ABC had the No. 1 show in any format for a season (“Who Wants to Be a Millionaire”)*: 4

Number of years since ABC won a TV season in either total viewers or young-adult viewers: 4

Number of weeks since ABC had the week’s most-watched show this season (2004 Academy Awards telecast): 8

Rank of “Monday Night Football,” ABC’s most-watched show this season, among all network shows: 13

Rank of “The Bachelor,” ABC’s second-most-watched show: 21

* among total viewers, including the critical demographic of adults 18-49.

** among adults 18-49.

Source: Nielsen Media Research

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Prime-time roulette

ABC’s new programming chief has three weeks to lock in a prime-time lineup for fall. Here’s a look at how the network’s current shows stack up.

Returning:

“NYPD Blue”

Untitled spinoff of “The Practice”

“According to Jim”

“The George Lopez Show”

“My Wife and Kids”

“Extreme Makeover”

“Extreme Makeover: Home Edition”

“Hope & Faith”

“America’s Funniest Home Videos”

“The Bachelor”

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Probably returning:

“Alias”

“Less Than Perfect”

“8 Simple Rules”

“The Big House”

“Celebrity Mole”

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In jeopardy:

“I’m With Her”

“Married to the Kellys”

“It’s All Relative”

“Life With Bonnie”

*

Not returning:

“10-8”

“Line of Fire”

“Threat Matrix”

“The D.A.”

“L.A. Dragnet”

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Dubious draw

ABC’s most-watched program from September to April was Monday Night Football, ranking 13th in overall viewership. How ABC’s top five shows compare with the No. 1 drawing show, Fox’s “American Idol” (Tuesday):

No. 1 (Overall rank)

“American Idol” (Tuesday), Fox

Number of viewers 26.5 million

No. 13

“NFL Monday Night Football”

Number of viewers: 16.5 million

No. 21

“The Bachelor”

Number of viewers: 13.1 million

No. 32

“The Bachelorette”

Number of viewers: 11.6 million

No. 39

“8 Simple Rules”

Number of viewers: 10.8 million

No. 42

“Extreme Makeover: Home Edition”

Number of viewers: 10.6 million

Source: Nielsen Media Research