There’s a Gray Outlook for This Kentucky Derby

When Native Dancer, the 7-10 favorite, lost by a head to Dark Star at Churchill Downs in 1953, Kentucky Derby savants could almost be heard in unison: A gray horse will never win the Derby.

They theorized that if “the Gray Ghost of Sagamore” couldn’t win, no gray could. Native Dancer, undefeated, had 11 victories entering the Derby, most of them cakewalks. The Derby would be his only loss in a 22-race career, and even today many historians rank Native Dancer’s loss as the race’s biggest upset.

It didn’t take long, however, for the Derby’s gray-horse curse to end. In 1954, a sawed-off colt from California won the Derby. This gray was called Determine, was owned by Andy Crevolin, trained by Willie Molter and ridden by 20-year-old Ray York.

“We almost went down coming away from the gate,” York said from his home in Taft, Calif. “But after that, we had a perfect trip. In the stretch, when I looked back and didn’t see [Eddie] Arcaro and Goyamo coming, I knew we were home free.”

Determine opened the door for grays at the Derby.

Decidedly, Determine’s son, won the race in 1962 and six other grays -- or roans -- have finished first. You have to throw out Dancer’s Image’s victory in 1968, though. He tested positive for the since-legalized phenylbutazone, an anti-inflammatory agent, and after a prolonged legal battle, Dancer’s Image was disqualified and Forward Pass was declared the winner.

On Saturday, at the 130th Derby, four grays are expected to run -- Tapit, Pro Prado, Imperialism and Wimbledon. Twice, there have been five grays in a Derby -- in 1968 when Dancer’s Image was joined by four others, and in 1981, when Woodchopper, best of the gray quintet, ran second to Pleasant Colony.

As far back as the early 20th century, though, there has been ambivalence about silver-haired horses.

“I should have bought that gray horse Kildare II,” the colorful Phil Chinn said in 1920, after a horse-buying trip to England. “He was really a good-looking horse, and a racehorse besides, but I was afraid my Kentucky friends would laugh at me on account of his coloring.”

Some superstitious horseplayers are loyal to grays, however, and automatically bet them. Punters of such persuasion swam in money at the Derby in 1982, when Gato Del Sol came from last place in a 19-horse field, won the race and paid $44.40 for $2.

Roughly, about 8% of horses foaled in recent years have been grays. The predominant color, according to the Jockey Club, is bay, followed by horses that are either dark bays or brown, and then the reddish chestnuts. The Jockey Club used to separate grays and roans, but now lumps them together. By definition, a roan is a horse with “a mixture of red and white hairs or brown and white hairs.”

The percentage of grays was lower when Determine scored his breakthrough victory 50 years ago. Crevolin bought him at a Keeneland yearling sale for $12,000. He took no guff about Determine’s color, but when friends razzed him about buying a horse that didn’t have much flesh or height, Crevolin would joke, “Maybe I was standing in a hole when I saw him.”

Eslie Asbury, the physician who bred Determine, offered to buy back the horse after the sale, at a price that would have netted Crevolin a quick $3,000 profit.

“No, I’ll keep him,” Crevolin said. “I’m going to win the Kentucky Derby with this horse. His grandfather on his sire’s side [Hyperion] bred a Derby winner, and his great-grandfather [Blenheim II] on the dam’s side did too.”

Crevolin had trouble getting the Jockey Club to approve several names that he suggested for his tiny colt.

“I’m determined to get a good name for this colt,” an exasperated Crevolin said to his wife.

“Well,” Janie Crevolin said, “if you’re so determined, why don’t you just name him Determine?”

Molter, the trainer, was a Texan who was 12 when he started riding quarter horses at bush tracks. He also trained Round Table, who was voted horse of the year in 1958. Two years later, at 50, Molter suffered a fatal heart attack, the same year he was enshrined in the Racing Hall of Fame in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Molter won 2,158 races, four of them with Determine as a 2-year-old. But the little horse was also beaten 10 times in 1953. After breaking his maiden at Del Mar, on his fifth try, Determine notched his first impressive victory under Bill Shoemaker, who rode him to a 10-length victory, going a mile, at Golden Gate Fields in October.

By the end of the year, Determine had won the San Francisco Handicap and the Robert O’Brien Handicap, and had earned $26,000, more than twice his purchase price.

In the Experimental Free Handicap, a theoretical ranking of 2-year-olds, Determine was listed 14th at 117 pounds, nine less than Porterhouse and Turn-to, who headed the ratings. What Molter liked about Determine was his versatility. He could be placed on the lead or tactically rated off the pace, and muddy tracks didn’t seem to bother him.

Molter’s goal early in 1954 was the Santa Anita Derby, although Crevolin had bigger dreams.

York couldn’t remember how he got the mount on Determine but said that Shoemaker and Johnny Longden, who also rode for Crevolin, were busy with other horses. The first time they teamed up, Determine and York finished second in the San Vicente Stakes. Then Determine won the San Gabriel on an off-track, and two weeks later he won the San Felipe at 1 1/16 miles.

Determine was the second choice in the Santa Anita Derby, behind the favored Calumet Farm entry of Duke’s Lea and Fault Free. It was a roughly run race, and Determine took the worst of it, losing considerable ground in the first turn. But down the backstretch, York’s mount turned it on and beat Duke’s Lea, the second-place finisher, by 3 1/2 lengths. The time of 1:48 4/5 for 1 1/8 miles tied the stakes record.

Crevolin wanted the Kentucky Derby badly -- he was, after all, determined -- but Molter, who had run horses in the race twice before, was not enthusiastic.

“Every horse I sent there, they knocked themselves out,” Molter said.

It’s hard to imagine now, but Determine ran four more times before the Kentucky Derby, winning the Bay Meadows Derby.

By then, however, Molter had found Crevolin’s zeal infectious, and he took on a cocksure air.

“What does Determine have to do to convince some people that he’s a real horse?” Molter said.

At Caliente in Tijuana, Crevolin got 6-1 odds on his horse in the Derby future book and bet $10,000 on him. Molter considered running Determine one more time, over the Churchill Downs surface, but instead of running a week before the Derby, he followed the advice of Ben Jones, the Calumet Farm trainer, and entered his colt in the Derby Trial, only four days out.

No horse has won the Trial and the Derby in 46 years, but in Determine’s era, the Trial was a popular prep for the big race. Calumet’s Citation and Hill Gail pulled off the Trial-Derby double in 1948 and 1952; and in 1953, Dark Star won the Trial less than a week before his upset of Native Dancer.

As an entry, Determine and stablemate Allied went off as the 1-2 favorite in the Trial, but Hasty Road, setting a track record of 1:35 for the mile, beat Determine by a nose. Allied finished third.

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Tentative Kentucky Derby Field

Probable starters for Saturday’s 130th Kentucky Derby, in order of graded stakes earnings.

Post time: 3:04 p.m. PDT. TV: Channel 4, coverage begins at 2 p.m. PDT. Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville. Post-position draw: Wednesday, 2 p.m. PDT, ESPN.

*--* Horse Trainer Jockey St-1-2-3 Gr. Earn. THE CLIFF’S Nick Zito Shane Sellers 8-4-2-1 $793,258 EDGE ACTION THIS DAY Richard David Flores 6-2-1-0 $780,000 Mandella FRIENDS LAKE John Kimmel Richard Migliore 5-3-0-1 $611,000 SMARTY JONES John Servis Stewart Elliott 6-6-0-0 $600,000 TAPIT Michael Ramon Dominguez 4-3-0-0 $530,000 Dickinson CASTLEDALE Jeff Mullins Jose Valdivia 10-3-4-1 $510,000 Jr. LIMEHOUSE Todd Pletcher Jose Santos 9-5-0-3 $478,405 LION HEART Patrick Mike Smith 5-3-2-0 $475,600 Biancone READ THE Rick Violette Robby Albarado 7-5-0-0 $397,860 FOOTNOTES Jr. WIMBLEDON Bob Baffert Jerry Bailey 7-2-3-0 $375,000 POLLARD’S Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 10-3-2-3 $366,000 VISION IMPERIALISM Kristin Kent Desormeaux 15-5-4-1 $363,000 Mulhall MINISTER ERIC Richard Pat Day 8-2-3-2 $350,000 Mandella BIRDSTONE Nick Zito Edgar Prado 5-3-0-0 $327,000 BORREGO Beau Greely Victor Espinoza 7-2-3-0 $320,000 QUINTONS GOLD Steve Asmussen Corey Nakatani 5-2-1-0 $258,500 RUSH ST AVERIL Rafael Becerra Tyler Baze 5-2-2-0 $215,200 MASTER DAVID Bobby Frankel Alex Solis 7-2-4-1 $208,000 SONG OF THE Jennifer Norberto Arroyo 5-3-1-1 $132,500 SWORD Pedersen Jr. PRO PRADO Bob Holthus John McKee 7-3-0-3 $105,685 *ALTERNATES EDDINGTON Mark Hennig Jerry Bailey 6-2-2-2 $95,000 ROCK HARD TEN Jason Orman Undecided 3-2-0-1 $90,000

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* There would need to be withdrawals among the 20 horses in the field in order for Eddington and/or Rock Hard Ten to run. Eddington is first in order of preference, based on career graded-stakes earnings.