Diverse States May Reshape the Democratic Race Today

Facing new attacks on his fundraising practices, Sen. John F. Kerry stumped across the desert Southwest on Monday, aiming for a seven-state sweep of today’s contests that could make him close to unbeatable for the Democratic nomination.

Depending on the outcome, today’s vote could end up eliminating two or more of the candidates, with Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut the likeliest to fall. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, the erstwhile frontrunner, was looking past today in a gamble that he could survive a shutout and stay alive another two weeks -- until an all-or-nothing fight in Wisconsin.

Today’s balloting, stretching nearly coast to coast, is in effect a national primary of sorts, presenting candidates with the most diverse electorate they have yet faced.

Polls showed Kerry, of Massachusetts, leading in five of the seven states that vote today, and competitive in the other two. At stake are 269 delegates, roughly one-tenth of the total needed to win the Democratic nomination at the party’s convention this summer in Boston.

But more important than the delegates is the momentum that attaches to a frontrunner, which builds with each successive victory.

“When you don’t win and when you don’t win repeatedly, your support dries up. Rank-and-file people switch to other candidates. Campaign workers lose heart and stop working,” said David Rohde, a Michigan State University political science professor who has written a dozen books on presidential politics.

“Most importantly, people stop donating money,” he said.

Pressing to slow Kerry’s drive, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina joined Dean on Monday in condemning Kerry for collecting millions of dollars from the special interests he assails each day.

“That’s another difference between Sen. Kerry and me,” Edwards told reporters in Charleston, S.C. “I don’t take contributions from lobbyists, and he obviously does.”

Kerry jabbed back by questioning Edwards’ experience.

“I think the American people want an experienced hand at the helm of state,” said Kerry, who has spent 19 years in the Senate compared with Edwards’ five. “This is not the time for on-the-job training in the White House on national security issues.”

The exchange reflected the high stakes, as the Democratic presidential campaign headed into its biggest day of balloting, of a contest stretching from the mesas of Arizona to the plains of North Dakota to the shores of South Carolina. Also weighing in on the race today are voters in Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Delaware.

To stop Kerry, his major rivals have settled on a common strategy: each picking a single state to make a stand in and hoping that, collectively, they can deny him a sweep that could make him nearly impossible to beat. For Edwards, it was South Carolina. For retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark, it was Oklahoma. For Lieberman, it was Delaware.

Dean, the frontrunner until his far-off finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, has effectively ceded all seven states. He pulled his TV advertisements to save money, and said he would instead focus on an all-or-nothing showdown with Kerry in two weeks in Wisconsin.

Still, he held out hope Monday for a surprise victory in New Mexico, where he had mounted an intensive campaign before Iowa.

Today’s far-flung balloting marked a qualitative shift in the Democratic race, moving the contest away from the close-quarters campaigning of Iowa and New Hampshire -- two small, predominantly white states -- into something more approaching a national contest.

Arizona and New Mexico have big Latino populations, and African Americans could make up as much as 50% of the voters in South Carolina’s primary.

Missouri offers a microcosm of America -- a blend of cities, suburbs and rural stretches -- and is sure to figure heavily in the calculations of both parties in the fall contest. It also offers the day’s biggest cache of delegates, with 74 at stake.

Alone among the candidates, Kerry campaigned personally and through television advertising in all seven states, hoping not just to solidify his stance as frontrunner but to send a message to Democrats in the contests that follow.

“If Kerry walks away with six wins, and certainly seven, he can defuse comments that he was only able to win in two largely aberrant white states,” said Thomas Schaller, a political science professor at the University of Maryland’s Baltimore County campus.

“He can make the claim that his viability and electability in November is something that’s seen by the broader Democratic faithful.”

After two strong wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, Kerry’s campaign hit a rough patch over the weekend. A nonpartisan watchdog group issued a report showing that over the last 15 years, Kerry had taken more campaign cash from special interests than any other U.S. senator.

Dean seized on the report and continued his attacks Monday. He denounced Kerry as a hypocrite for attacking Washington’s lawyer and lobbyist corps in his speeches while taking their donations. He even stole one of his rival’s signature lines.

“We’re not going to beat George Bush by running somebody who thinks that they ought to run the government like George Bush did,” he said. “And John, don’t let the door hit you on the way out!”

Edwards, who has said he must win South Carolina to continue his campaign, chimed in from Charleston. “If we want real change in Washington, we need someone who hasn’t been there for 15 to 20 years,” he told reporters.

Fighting back, Kerry produced a character witness of sorts: New York Atty. Gen. Eliot Spitzer.

Spitzer, who has crusaded against financial miscreants on Wall Street, stood with Kerry in the student union of the University of New Mexico and said the Democrat had been a strong ally in his fight to protect investors.

“This is somebody who knows how to stand up for you and me -- who knows how to push back against the special interests,” Spitzer told a crowd of about 300.

When his turn came, Kerry ignored his rivals and focused on President Bush. “Like father, like son,” Kerry said. “One term only. Bush is going to be done.”

Kerry continued to rack up endorsements in a further sign of the party establishment solidifying around his candidacy. The latest endorsers included Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington state, which holds caucuses Saturday. Two unions, the National Treasury Employees Union and the Sheet Metal Workers’ International Assn. also announced that they’re backing Kerry.

Dean, on the other hand, received a less than ringing affirmation of support from one of his key boosters. Andrew Stern, president of the Service Employees International Union, told Associated Press that the big labor group remained solidly behind Dean -- “at the moment.”

Clark made a campaign circuit from Oklahoma City to New Mexico to Arizona and then back to Oklahoma.

He courted Latino voters in Albuquerque, focusing his fire on Bush. He vowed to be “one tough hombre” in a general election campaign.

Standing in the winter sunlight Monday afternoon in Albuquerque, he also mentioned his grandson. “His name is Wesley ... Pablo ... Oviedo ... Clark,” he said, pausing between each name. “His mother was born in Colombia. He was born on Christmas Day.”

Lieberman campaigned in New Mexico and Arizona, visiting with students at East San Jose Elementary School in Albuquerque.

The children seemed incredulous at Lieberman’s age -- 61 -- and asked the Connecticut lawmaker whom he would support in today’s caucuses.

“That’s great,” Lieberman said, laughing. “I’m voting for myself, because if I didn’t think I was the best, I wouldn’t be running.”

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Times staff writers Nick Anderson, Matea Gold, Scott Martelle and Eric Slater contributed to this report.