Dean Eyes the Next States

Howard Dean pushed hard Tuesday. He told cheering supporters across this state that the Democratic presidential nomination was still up for grabs. He said that only he could be the candidate of fundamental change. Ever game, he even fielded a couple of slippery fish on the Seattle waterfront for the cameras.

But the former Vermont governor’s best efforts to look beyond Tuesday’s primaries and caucuses suffered one flaw, as clear as the television screens flashing the news here and around America: Not a single Dean victory in seven states. A struggle to reach double digits in virtually every contest. A day so bad he even had to accept condolences offered on CNN by a Republican, former senator and onetime presidential nominee Bob Dole.

By the end of the night Tuesday, Dean’s once high-flying bid for the White House had endured nine straight primary and caucus losses. The candidate is now relying on what most political experts say is a longshot gambit -- aiming past Tuesday’s votes in hopes that he can stop the momentum of Sen. John F. Kerry on Saturday in Washington state or, perhaps, in Michigan.

“There’s a big risk for Dean now. He finishes no higher than third in any state and if he doesn’t make 15% in any of them, he doesn’t get any delegates,” said Eric Davis, a political scientist at Middlebury College in Vermont. “That really raises the stakes for Dean this Saturday in Washington and Michigan.”

Dean did his best throughout the day to carry on like hundreds of thousands of Democrats were not voting Tuesday. He talked about the losses mostly when asked and then only briefly. At a rally Tuesday night in Tacoma, he finally owned up to numbers that could not be ignored.

“Well, the votes are starting to come in, and we’re going to have a tough night tonight,” Dean told supporters at the Pantages Theater. “But you know what? Here’s why we’re going to keep going and going and going and going and going. We’re going to pick up some more delegates tonight, and this is all about who gets the most delegates in Boston in July, and it’s going to be us!”

The crowd of 800 leapt to their feet, waving signs and cheering wildly. The former governor assured them that soon other Americans will mobilize behind his candidacy.

“This campaign is simply going to offer people something different than anybody else,” he said, calling his rivals “Washington insiders.”

In fact, Dean was scratching to even reach the 15% threshold needed in each of Tuesday’s contests to assure he would win delegates for the Democratic National Convention.

When he appeared to discuss the results on CNN, he had to weather a rambling, dour assessment from Dole.

“It’s a lot more fun winning,” Dole said. “I’ve been there, you’ve been there.... You’re going to decide if you think it’s still there, and I assume you must feel that way.... I don’t know that you even finished third anywhere today. You know, that’s your decision. You’re a good person, hang in there.”

His own campaign officials and outside analysts agreed that no candidate had ever won the nomination picking and choosing contests like Dean. The independent election observers questioned whether Dean can overcome the momentum achieved by Kerry, who won in five states on Tuesday, and Edwards, who won in one, South Carolina.

At the end of his 20-minute speech in Tacoma, Dean asked his supporters to rise to his defense.

“America needs your help, Washington state,” he said. “America needs your help. On Saturday at 10 o’clock, you can send a message for fundamental institutional change. I know we all want to get rid of George Bush. So do I. But ... wouldn’t we have a better country if we had a president who stood up for what he believed in?”

At a Spokane auditorium, he told one audience: “If you want change in America, at 10 o’clock on Saturday, you can have it. Because Washington state is going to be the turning point -- if we win -- of this campaign.”

Later, he made the requisite stop at Pike Place Market, and took his place behind the counter to catch a fish tossed by one of the workers. (He dropped one large silver king salmon, but got the second by its tail.)

He told reporters he was “not discouraged a bit,” by the returns from the Tuesday election states, where he had once campaigned and dumped millions of dollars in television ads, only to pull out in a late tactical maneuver. “It’s about what we expected. We think we’re doing fine.”

“I think the momentum has clearly shifted,” he added. “But ultimately, issues are going to decide this.... If you don’t run, you can’t win. I’m running, and I’m running to win.”

Campaign chief executive Roy Neel insisted that Tuesday’s results would not keep Dean from moving forward.

“It’s way too early for the coronation of the candidate who has taken in more special interest money than any other candidate,” Neel said in a statement, alluding to Kerry.

Even as Dean and his advisors attempted to keep a stiff upper lip, however, the slew of losses further weighed down a campaign that had been struggling to regain its once white-hot momentum.

After demoralizing losses in Iowa and New Hampshire last month, Dean retooled his candidacy, announcing his intention to wage a marathon campaign focused on collecting delegates in each state.

The former governor has said he plans to campaign extensively in Wisconsin a week before the Feb. 17 primary there in the hope of swinging the momentum back in his favor.

But on Tuesday, he sought to cast the final test of the campaign even further down the calendar.

“I don’t think there’ll be any significance to these votes other than 10% of the delegates until we hit Super Tuesday,” he said, referring to the March 2 primaries in major states such as California.

“That’s when the real votes come. Right now, we’ve got 10% of the votes cast, and we’ll see how we do after today.”

Although others inside the campaign doubted he could keep it up, Dean said he would keep going even if he lost in Wisconsin.

“Then we’ll go on to Utah, Idaho, Hawaii and ultimately Super Tuesday,” he said. “It’s all about delegates.”