Iraqis Hope to Sway Experts

From the mosques of Baghdad’s slums to the ornate offices of Iraqi policymakers, major political and religious leaders were quietly jockeying for position as a U.N. team arrived here Saturday to begin its investigation into the feasibility of national elections this spring.

One group had already dispatched its own rival panel of election experts to examine the issue. Others were mobilizing supporters and bracing for a spirited campaign to sway the U.N. team.

In many ways, the battle over the team will serve as a practice run for political skirmishes to come as Iraq’s new leaders struggle to establish a democracy.

“Everyone will want to tell their story,” said Samir Shakir Mahmoud, a Sunni Muslim member of the Iraqi Governing Council who opposes early elections. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the leading cleric for the nation’s Shiite majority, has demanded direct elections and opposes a U.S.-backed plan to choose the transitional government using a caucus system.

Disputed reports last week that Sistani had survived an assassination attempt may have been the first volley in an attempt to influence the U.N.’s work, according to some. Sistani’s office denied that an attack had taken place and dismissed the rumor as an attempt by his foes to disrupt the U.N. process.

“Citizens should use the utmost caution and vigilance when it comes to information regarding political and security issues during such sensitive times, in which all are waiting for the arrival of the international delegation,” his office said in a statement Saturday. “We hope that an accommodating environment will be offered to the team so it can achieve its mission properly and without pressure and outside influences.”

The U.N. team, led by Uruguayan political scientist Carina Perelli, is expected to remain in Iraq for two weeks, but officials declined to provide specifics about its schedule, citing security concerns.

“The U.N. team will endeavor to meet with representatives of all constituencies and listen to all Iraqi views and perspectives, without excluding any,” United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan said.

One of the team’s first stops was the office of Governing Council member Adnan Pachachi, an aide said Saturday.

The U.N. has conducted scores of similar preelection assessments worldwide, but the Iraq mission is unique because of its sense of urgency -- past missions have lasted several months -- and the worldwide scrutiny surrounding it.

“The handbook that usually guides these investigations won’t be used this time,” said a former director of the U.N.’s Electoral Assistance Division, who declined to be identified.

“This study is too important. Kofi Annan will be involved in every decision.”

One key objective is to determine whether it would be possible to hold elections by May to meet a June 30 deadline to transfer authority from the U.S. to a new transitional assembly. Many experts doubt legitimate elections could take place by then, given Iraq’s lack of voter rolls and security.

As a result, there’s a growing consensus that the U.N. team will be asked to broker a political compromise between the United States, with its caucus plan, and many Shiites, who would presumably prevail in direct elections.

To bolster its case, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a leading Shiite political party that works closely with Sistani, has mobilized a team of Iraqi judges, lawyers and intellectuals -- assisted by consultants at the Washington-based International Foundation for Election Systems -- to review the prospects for elections.

Their preliminary analysis suggests it will be possible to overcome obstacles such as creating voter rolls and providing security, a party leader said. They plan to present their findings to the U.N. team.

“They are going to have to convince us that elections are not possible,” said Hamid Bayati, a party spokesman.

Some Iraqi officials, however, insist that the infrastructure needed for elections is not in place.

“We must train people, create new maps, create a census -- we have none of these things,” said Fiak Abdul Rasol, deputy minister of planning, whose agency is responsible for census-taking. “It will be at least a year before we are ready.”

Though Shiite leaders have mobilized tens of thousands of followers to demand direct elections in recent weeks, Sistani and others are calling for a temporary halt in demonstrations while the U.N. team completes its work.

Followers of Muqtader Sadr, the firebrand son of a revered ayatollah assassinated in 1999, remain a wild card. Clerics in a Baghdad slum known as Sadr City have been preaching to thousands of young men in recent weeks that elections must be held without any foreign interference.

“We all know very well that the U.N. is dominated and controlled by the U.S.,” said Imam Hassan Naji Musowi, top cleric at Sadr City’s Al Muhsin mosque.

Sadr’s followers say they are ready to resume protests, if called upon.

Others fear being excluded from the negotiating table. It’s unclear which and how many Iraqi leaders the U.N. will seek to interview. Most believe that the parties represented on the Governing Council will be consulted. But other groups are already angling for an audience with the team.

The Iraqi Bar Assn., a professional group representing the nation’s lawyers, is meeting today to issue a resolution urging the U.N. team to recommend direct elections. Although the association has not been invited to appear before the team, it hopes its outspokenness will gain it entree.

“We demand the U.N. meets with the bar,” said Kaman Hamdun Mullah, deputy chief of the association. “We don’t trust the Governing Council to represent us. We are the educated people of Iraq -- what will their decision mean if it does not include our thoughts?”

Parties opposed to early elections appear to be seeking a lower profile, confident that the U.N. will come to the conclusion that legitimate elections are not possible in the short term.

“I don’t sense any ramping up for the U.N. visit,” said Mahmoud, an independent Governing Council member. “We’re not trying to sell a package.”

But opponents of early elections are lobbying to narrow the U.N.’s mandate, urging the team to stick to technical issues, such as electoral processes and the availability of an accurate census. “I see their job as more technical than political,” Mahmoud said.

U.S. officials declined to comment on the U.N. mission, but privately, advisors with the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority say they expect the U.N. to take its side and say that early elections are impossible.

“We are confident that they will say no,” one senior coalition official said. “When they look at the options they will come to the same conclusion we have.” Although the Bush administration hopes to stick with the June 30 deadline, Annan said last week that a delay would be considered.

“If everyone concerned accepted there should be some shift in the dates,” he told reporters in New York, “I don’t think we would be able to resist.”

--- UNPUBLISHED NOTE ---

In stories after April 9, 2004, Shiite cleric Muqtader Sadr is correctly referred to as Muqtada Sadr.

--- END NOTE ---