Edwards Hopes for Two-Man Campaign

In a Democratic presidential battle that is felling candidates at the rate of one a week, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina seems determined to dodge any bullets Wisconsin voters may fire at his campaign Tuesday.

Polls suggest an easy victory in the state’s primary for Sen. John F. Kerry, who has emerged as the heavy favorite in the Democratic presidential race.

Rival Howard Dean, amid swirling speculation that he will soon exit the race, plans to retreat to Vermont after the primary to regroup.

But Edwards already is plotting campaign appearances in New York, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota and Ohio -- all among the 10 states with contests on March 2.

Last week, he twice stopped in California, which also votes that day. It remains unclear, however, how much more time Edwards will spend in the nation’s most populous state or how extensively he will advertise on its airwaves.

By pointing to the precipitous decline of Dean, once the front-runner, Edwards may be able to shrug off a drubbing by Kerry in Wisconsin. But he has yet to prove that he has a viable path to the nomination, raising questions among many Democrats about why he would keep running.

A setback in Wisconsin would leave Edwards with just one win in 17 primaries and caucuses -- in his native South Carolina. Kerry, with 14 wins in states that span the continent, is putting more distance between himself and his rivals with each passing week and preparing for a general-election battle with President Bush.

Acknowledging his status as an underdog, Edwards told reporters Sunday he believes he is the only Democrat remaining who is capable of stopping Kerry.

“I just need to be head-to-head with him so people will see the differences,” Edwards said. “I’m in this for the long haul.”

He and his campaign advisors in recent days have sketched out a plan for him to continue through March, in hopes Kerry may stumble. The campaign reasons that Edwards, a first-term senator, has already proved to be a top-drawer speaker who can motivate voters with an optimistic message about fighting for the working class.

But his advisors say Edwards, should he fare poorly on March 2, will not continue a campaign that clearly has run out of steam.

“If he decides he can’t be the nominee in 2004, he’ll stop running,” one advisor said. “He’s a very realistic person.”

It depends on how much money Edwards can raise as Kerry steps up his own fundraising with an eye to compete against Bush. On Thursday and Friday, Edwards pulled in an estimated $500,000 from two events in Los Angeles. He also stopped for cash Saturday in Chicago.

His campaign said Edwards has raised $3.3 million since his second-place finish in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses.

But the money may dry up if Edwards can’t beat Kerry somewhere soon. As it is, his advisors concede Edwards may not have enough cash to compete everywhere. He is skipping contests on Feb. 24 in Hawaii, Utah and Idaho.

According to a tally by Associated Press, Kerry so far has amassed 577 convention delegates, more than a quarter of the 2,161 needed for the nomination. Dean has 188 and Edwards 166.

Edwards, campaigning in Waukesha, Wis., before a debate in Milwaukee on Sunday, told reporters that events are unfolding according to plan.

From a field that once included 10 candidates, he has outlasted Sen. Bob Graham of Florida, former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois, Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark of Arkansas.

Now Edwards suggests he is on the verge of outlasting Dean, the former governor of Vermont.

“It’s been a process of attrition for us from the beginning,” Edwards said. “We wanted to get to a place where it was a two-person race. I think we’re very close to that place, maybe now already.”

He refused to say that he would target all of the 10 states voting on March 2, dubbed Super Tuesday. “We will compete in the primaries that we believe are critical to the nomination,” Edwards said.

Two advisors, however, said Edwards would focus on Ohio, Georgia and upstate New York -- regions in which they believe his message of economic populism will resonate. He may also zero in on Minnesota.

In California, where 370 pledged delegates are at stake, his advisors worry that momentum propelling Kerry may be too hard to stop.

“If we can convince the voters of California to pause, we can do really well,” one said. “To be honest, we’ll have to wait and see.”

One analyst said Edwards would lose nothing by staying in the race and campaigning in California, Ohio and New York, especially if he has future national ambitions.

“Even if he doesn’t get another delegate, he can build that political base,” said Lynn Vavreck, a political scientist a UCLA. The campaign should “go on as long as he can afford to pay for it. That’s the bottom line.”