GOP Favorite Running on Empty

Former Secretary of State Bill Jones, the Republican frontrunner for U.S. Senate, faces the prospect of starting a fall challenge to two-term Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer next week essentially broke.

Despite leading in voter surveys, Jones has struggled with fundraising since entering the race in December. He lent himself $350,000 to jump-start the campaign and, as of the last official filing Feb. 11, had only $212,000 on hand against a $568,000 campaign deficit -- mostly incurred by the cost of about 1 million brochures mailed to voters statewide touting his endorsement by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

In recent weeks, Jones fared better as a rainmaker, holding a $2,000-per-ticket fundraiser Feb. 19 in Los Angeles with Schwarzenegger. From Feb. 16 to Feb. 24, he took in $324,000 in contributions, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

By comparison, Boxer reported more than $5.3 million in cash on hand -- and $63,000 in debts -- this month. She has pledged to raise $20 million.

Jones’ lackluster showing reflects a fundamental concern, said Allan Hoffenblum, a former Republican political consultant and publisher of the California Target Book, a nonpartisan election guide: No one is confident that Jones, let alone any Republican, can defeat Boxer. “As far as the Republican primary, the big donors are expecting Bill Jones to win anyway,” Hoffenblum added. “They’re not going to invest heavily until well into the fall election to see if he’s competitive or not” against Boxer.

Jones campaign officials said they are not worried. They plan to ramp up fundraising after Jones wins the primary, they said. And as it stands, Boxer will be the state party’s prime target in the November election.

“This campaign is going to be funded,” Jones strategist Bruce Nestande said.

“We’ve raised sufficient funds for our campaign plan and we’re doing exactly what we wanted to do.”

More money-raising appeals are planned, but Jones’ announcement this week of a final, four-day blitz of network television, cable and radio ads leading into Tuesday’s election will add to the cash drain.

Under federal rules, Jones can continue to raise money separately after the primary for the purposes of paying off primary debts. Contributors are limited to $2,000 per person for the primary and an additional $2,000 for the general election.

The low-key tenor to Jones’ effort has come from the campaign itself, donors and campaign supporters said. Believing Jones’ chances were good to win the primary, campaign officials haven’t aggressively solicited money.

They also have honored a request from Schwarzenegger to allow voter focus to remain on Propositions 57 and 58, which the governor placed on Tuesday’s ballot to help solve the state’s budget problems.

Other factors contributed to the weak bottom line: Jones entered the campaign at the December filing deadline and held off major fundraising until after the holidays; and he bumped into conflicting demands from fiercely competitive legislative races in heavily Republican areas such as Orange County, where three open Assembly races and a state Senate race have vacuumed up funds.

Should Jones win Tuesday’s election, he’ll face other potential impediments beyond his control, Hoffenblum said. To boost Jones, Schwarzenegger must maintain his popularity and make the decision to focus on the Senate race. A competitive presidential race in California also could boost Jones’ chances; a noncompetitive one could dampen them.

If more California voters turn out for Democrat John Kerry, for example, “they’re not going to be voting for Kerry and Bill Jones,” Hoffenblum said. “No one knows the answer as to whether Jones can be elected because they don’t know how popular Bush will be.”

Democratic officials have roundly dismissed Jones’ chances, saying Boxer is a popular incumbent with a proven ability to raise millions and woo state voters. Jones, on the other hand, has never been a money magnet -- he had only $67,000 in the bank at the end of 2001, even as he considered running for governor the next year, said Democratic Party strategist Bob Mulholland.

“There’s no doubt the Republicans will raise money [for the Senate race] but the hurdle is difficult,” he said. “They haven’t won a Senate race in California since 1988, and every senator since Roe vs. Wade was decided has been pro-choice,” which Jones is not.

In another way, history is on Boxer’s side. She is sitting on more than twice the money she had going into the 1998 primary, when eventual GOP nominee Matt Fong spent all he had to win a heavily fueled challenge by U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista), a car-alarm magnate.

Fong went on to raise nearly $11 million for that year’s Senate race, but was plagued at the campaign’s end by a lack of funding. That allowed Boxer, who spent $13.7 million, to pound away at Fong in a series of negative and largely unanswered television spots that assailed his positions on such issues as abortion, gun control and HMO reform.

The ads portrayed him as outside the mainstream views of California voters, a charge the Republicans had unsuccessfully lobbed at Boxer.