This Horse Lacks Even a Puncher’s Chance

You could call it a horse race within a horse race, except this time, “Seabiscuit” really looks swamped. “The Return of the King” should romp home first. “Mystic River” and “Lost in Translation” figure to place and show.

“Master and Commander?” Different War Admiral, different battle, different time.

This year’s Oscar derby hits the finish Sunday evening, with “Seabiscuit” along for the ride, filling out the field, which is usually the case whenever a sports-related movie sneaks into the best-picture final five.

Only two sports movies have won the best picture Oscar, “Rocky” in 1977 and “Chariots of Fire” in 1982 -- unless you want to consider “Forrest Gump” a football-table tennis-extreme marathon movie.

This is because sports movies can’t avoid being sports movies. Ninety percent of them recycle the same underdog-overcomes-great-odds formula, only with a change of uniform, arena, characters or, in the case of “Seabiscuit,” species.

“Rocky” worked that formula the same way its hero worked that side of beef, and probably didn’t deserve to win in a field that included “Taxi Driver,” “Network” and “All the President’s Men.” But America was coming off its bicentennial, was feeling good about itself, and “Rocky” hit the Academy in precisely the right place at precisely the right time.

Post-”Rocky,” seven sports-related movies have been nominated for best picture. Only “Chariots” broke through for victory. The others:

1979: “Heaven Can Wait” eerily foreshadowed the 1980 Super Bowl matchup between the Rams and the Pittsburgh Steelers, except for the game’s outcome. It was a runner-up to “The Deer Hunter,” which definitely was not a sports movie, or anything with Deion Sanders as host, although Russian roulette sounds like a reality concept Fox is considering for its fall lineup.

1980: “Breaking Away” was celluloid cycling’s finest hour, but it wasn’t going to triumph in a field that included “Apocalypse Now” and the winner, “Kramer vs. Kramer.”

1981: “Raging Bull” is the best boxing movie ever made, but it was the anti-”Rocky,” a downer victimized by the date of its release, 1980, with the country’s mood already darkened by Cold War bulletins and hostage-crisis updates on the evening news. The Academy opted for “Ordinary People.”

1990: The overrated “Field of Dreams” made the final five, Spike Lee’s brilliant but controversial “Do the Right Thing” did not. Amid the confusion, “Driving Miss Daisy” wound up with the Oscar. Looking back, what can the Academy say about its performance? It was a rebuilding year.

1997: “Jerry Maguire” starred Tom Cruise as a sports agent with a heart, yet wasn’t classified as science fiction. In more than a little over its head, “Maguire” was up against “Fargo,” “Secrets and Lies,” “Shine,” and the winner, “The English Patient.”

2004: “Seabiscuit” made the cut and “American Splendor” didn’t? “Seabiscuit” waxed about America, and it strained mightily for splendor, but at its core was just another spin on the sports-movie formula, camouflaged by some very impressive action footage.

The current movie about the 1980 U.S. hockey team, “Miracle,” is another underdog-does-good story. It probably won’t be up for best picture this time next year, but it does several things better than “Seabiscuit.”

Kurt Russell’s portrayal of Herb Brooks is far more convincing than Tobey Maguire’s Red Pollard. Both films deal with America-in-troubled-times, but “Miracle” doesn’t need a sledgehammer to make the point. And “Miracle’s” emotional climax sticks much closer to actual history.

If “Miracle” had taken the “Seabiscuit” approach, Brooks’ boys would have started the third period against the Soviets down, 5-0, before rallying from way down the track for a 6-5 victory.

Beyond that, “Miracle” was never advertised as “the movie that shall save hockey.” Did “Seabiscuit” save horse racing? It sold a lot of theater tickets, and a lot of DVDs, but racetracks across America look pretty much the same today as they did pre-”Biscuit.”

Sunday night on ABC’s Oscar telecast, “Seabiscuit” gets a chance to sell more DVDs.

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Also available for viewing this weekend:

TODAY

* Mighty Ducks at Kings

(Fox Sports Net, 1 p.m.)

The Ducks and Kings play back-to-back, home-and-home games -- Saturday at Staples, Sunday at the Pond. So why doesn’t anybody call this the Freeway Series? Why aren’t more people talking about this rivalry? Why can’t these teams have good seasons during the same season, to answer two questions with one more?

* Saint Joseph’s at Rhode Island

(ESPN2, 9 a.m.)

Saint Joseph’s is 25-0 and the Hawks keep hearing they’d be better off losing before the NCAA tournament.

“I think that thinking is completely insane,” Saint Joseph’s Coach Phil Martelli said on Fox’s “Best Damn Sports Show Period” this week. “There’s a salesman out there trying to sell a widget. He goes into Company A today. You think he’s thinking ‘Well, maybe if I don’t get this sale, I’ll be much stronger when I go in to see Company B?’ They’re going to keep score. And once they keep score, every time they keep score your whole life, you’re taught to win. And that’s what we’re going to try to do.”

* Oregon at Stanford

(Channel 7, 4 p.m.)

Stanford’s Mike Montgomery would probably second Martelli’s opinion, just to hazard a guess.

SUNDAY

* Lakers at New Jersey

(Channel 9, 3 p.m.)

The Lakers get a tough one, on the road, barely 24 hours after a trip-opener at Washington. If Shaq were general manager, this would never happen.

* Kings at Mighty Ducks

(ESPN, 1 p.m.)

Subtitle (of course): “The Return of the Kings.”