Props to Test Governor’s Strength

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is heading into the toughest fight of his political career, and the outcome will shape his governorship.

Selling voters on $15 billion in long-term borrowing to pay for current state spending -- it’s euphemistically called the Economic Recovery Bond Act -- may make Schwarzenegger’s election race last year look like a cakewalk.

A new poll released today by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California shows that the measure -- Proposition 57 on the March 2 ballot -- is supported by only roughly one-third of likely voters. (Yes 35%, no 44%, undecided 21%.)

“It’s difficult to convince people that borrowing to clean up someone else’s mess is a worthwhile thing,” says PPIC pollster Mark Baldassare. “This is going to take all the governor’s ability and popular appeal....

“Voters also will have to like the message, not just the messenger.”

It’s essential that the bond be linked in voters minds to a companion measure, Prop. 58, the California Balanced Budget Act. That proposal would require balanced budgets, establish a rainy-day reserve and limit future borrowing to cover deficits. Voters like this measure, favoring it 57% to 22% in the PPIC poll. But both propositions must pass for either to take effect.

If the package is rejected, there’d certainly be a hefty tax increase and, most likely, more draconian cuts in state services.

Schwarzenegger put it this way in the ballot argument mailed to voters: “Without this bond, the state of California may be out of cash by June. To deal with a calamity of that magnitude in such a short time frame, the only choice will be to drastically increase taxes.”

That is what’s at stake for the public. Much more is at stake for Schwarzenegger.

How Californians vote will affect his image, his power and his relationship with the Democratic-dominated Legislature.

Put simply, if he can’t sell this bipartisan bond issue, which the Legislature passed, then all the bluster about “going over the legislators’ heads” directly to the voters will ring hollow.

Rather than “marginalize” the Legislature -- as some of his strategists have threatened -- the Republican governor would have little choice but to compromise with Democratic leaders.

That’s his preferred option anyway, aides say, and it did work for him in negotiating the bond-and-balanced-budget package. But if he can’t peddle the package to voters, it will weaken his leverage in the Legislature and embolden Democrats.

Having failed on bonds, Democrats will reason, how can he hawk something even more complicated and contentious like workers’ comp reform?

“The saber rattling about taking everything to the ballot in November would quiet down,” says Senate Majority Leader Don Perata (D-Oakland).

Conversely, if the two propositions passed, Schwarzenegger’s political persona and strength would be enhanced. And so would his already considerable ability to prod the Legislature. He’d have a much better shot at negotiating major workers’ comp reform.

So why don’t the Democrats just bag it and let the bond fail? Many believe that would be both a public policy disaster and, in some respects, a political loser.

“It would be the closest California ever came to financial scorched earth,” Perata says. “And it would be an indictment of everybody” in Sacramento.

Most politicians in Sacramento still are Democrats. And they’re looking to survive a possible Republican tide. If the bond package failed, it would lead to more fiscal chaos, budget gridlock and even angrier voters. That would hurt incumbents.

If the bond bombed, practically every politician would be injured -- except Democratic state Treasurer Phil Angelides and state Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks), the most outspoken opponents on the left and the right. They’d be siding with the electorate.

But the opposition isn’t organized. And so far it’s not expected to be seriously funded.

By contrast, supporters will spend between $8 million and $12 million, says Marty Wilson, who coordinates Schwarzenegger’s fund-raising and ballot prop activities.

Veteran initiative consultant Rick Claussen will manage the campaign. Schwarzenegger strategists Mike Murphy, Don Sipple and George Gorton will advise. Democratic consultant Darry Sragow will work on Democratic voters, along with state Controller Steve Westly.

But this mainly will be Schwarzenegger’s to sell. “He’ll do what it takes,” says an advisor -- TV ads, talk shows, ‘Ask Arnold’ forums.

The PPIC poll found that only 42% of Republicans favored the bond, with 21% undecided. Even fewer Democrats -- 31% -- backed it. Schwarzenegger will threaten Republicans with taxes and Democrats with cuts.

And he might be able to charm and influence undecided voters, Baldassare says. Among them, 43% view the bond more favorably because the governor is pushing it; only 13% look on it less favorably.

We’ll soon learn more about whether Schwarzenegger truly is larger than life, or a mere mortal governor.