After Falls, Can They Get Up?

Back before the first missed shot of the season, Michigan State and Missouri were among the top five in the Associated Press poll, and Indiana was still, well, Indiana.

These days, the question is who among them can recover from the hard bumps and ugly bruises of the early season and make it to the NCAA tournament.

Michigan State, No. 3 in the AP preseason poll, is 8-7 partly because of a brutal nonconference schedule that included losses to Kansas, Duke, Oklahoma, Kentucky, UCLA and Syracuse.

That schedule and injury trouble did damage to the Spartans’ psyche, but expect their record to improve in the weak Big Ten Conference. Already, Michigan State is 3-1.

The bigger picture is the battering the program has taken because of early departures. When the Spartans won the NCAA championship in 2000, they had three senior starters led by Mateen Cleaves, and the other two starters were juniors.

In the years since, they’ve lost such players as Zach Randolph and Jason Richardson after one or two years, and they lost Erazem Lorbek from last season’s Elite Eight team when he turned pro only to end up in Europe.

Even though Coach Tom Izzo has recruited talented players to replace them, they haven’t always proved to be the immediate-impact types people expected. (Consider Kelvin Torbert, for one.)

“What we had going here for three or four years is we had seniors that were passing [a work ethic] on down,” Izzo said. “I still say since Richardson and Randolph left, they were two of our best players and two of our hardest workers. Jason would have probably taken that role the next year. Then all of a sudden they disappeared.

“Yet there are still teams able to do it. Arizona and Duke went through it and still had incredible leaders when they lost those groups. Duke had [Shane] Battier and Arizona had [Jason] Gardner and [Luke] Walton.

“I’ve studied that. It almost seems like once you lose those leaders, you almost have to start from scratch. That’s something I don’t think I did a good job of looking at.”

Prognosis: Izzo’s teams generally get better as the season goes on, and a down year in the Big Ten should provide ample opportunity for the Spartans to finish with the 17 or 18 victories it probably would require for them to make the NCAA field, with their current RPI of No. 38 in Jerry Palm’s ratings. Also in their favor: All their losses are against good teams.

Missouri might have Final Four talent and was ranked No. 5 before the season. But an NCAA investigation into former player Ricky Clemons’ charges of improper benefits and other improprieties hangs over the season, and the Tigers have a resume that includes losses to Memphis, Iowa State, and most stunningly, Belmont.

It was after an 82-68 loss to Syracuse -- the Tigers’ fifth in a seven-game stretch -- that guard Jimmy McKinney told reporters, “We need to make a run right now or our season will be down the drain.”

So far, it looks as if they might make a run, defeating No. 20 Oklahoma in overtime Saturday before losing to No. 16 Texas in another overtime game Tuesday, evening their record at 7-7.

The improved play of Rickey Paulding and Arthur Johnson is one reason for the surge, but the Tigers are going to have to play consistently better defense to do well in the rugged Big 12 Conference.

Prognosis: First, there’s the possibility the NCAA situation will result in a postseason ban, especially considering the trend of self-imposed sanctions. But even if it doesn’t, the NCAA selection committee won’t look kindly on the loss to Belmont, and at No. 56 in Palm’s RPI ratings, the Tigers wouldn’t even merit a great deal of discussion.

Barring an impressive Big 12 season, Missouri would have to win the conference tournament, and this team has yet to show it could put together that sort of run.

Indiana wasn’t supposed to be a national contender this season. But the Hoosiers weren’t supposed to endure a collapse on the scale of North Carolina’s and UCLA’s in recent years either.

The margins in some of the losses on the way to a 9-6 record have been stunning.

Wake Forest beat Indiana by 33, Kentucky defeated the Hoosiers by 39 and Wisconsin won by 34.

But much like Michigan State, Indiana might heal up during the Big Ten season.

The Hoosiers have a 3-1 conference record after a three-game winning streak against Michigan, Northwestern and Ohio State.

“We’ve played NCAA-caliber teams throughout the year. It can’t help but help us if we can keep our confidence,” Coach Mike Davis said.

Good shooting by Bracey Wright and Marshall Strickland as well as the return of center George Leach, who sat out nine games because of a knee injury, have been big reasons for the Hoosiers’ progress.

“[Leach] is a guy similar to what Ken Johnson meant to Ohio State: He’s a defensive presence and a shot-blocker,” Davis said. “When you have a shot-blocker, what that does for you is stop all the layups, and sometimes shots are missed because guys are looking for the shot-blocker. We hadn’t had that, and we hadn’t had anyone to pass the ball to in the post, not just to make a shot but even thinking he was going to make a shot.”

The prospect of a solid Big Ten season and a strong recruiting class for next season has helped fend off pressure on Davis, but this season looks mediocre at best, with Indiana’s RPI at No. 69.

Prognosis: This very well might be the first NCAA tournament without the Hoosiers since 1985, ending an 18-year run.

Will-Power at Georgia Tech

Will Bynum’s transfer from Arizona to Georgia Tech is looking a lot like one of those proverbial trades that are good for both teams. Bynum wasn’t going to play much behind Jason Gardner and Salim Stoudamire at Arizona last season, so he left, with Mustafa Shakur inheriting the point guard position from Gardner this season.

At Georgia Tech, Bynum has provided a big boost since becoming eligible in December. He scored 25 points off the bench Saturday against Maryland, including five three-pointers, and scored 20 off the bench in a key Atlantic Coast Conference victory over Wake Forest on Tuesday.

Put Me in, Papa Lute

Matt Brase has played only 18 minutes this season and scored four points for Arizona, but he holds a special place in Coach Lute Olson’s heart.

He’s his grandson.

“He’s been a pain,” Olson said, laughing.

Brase is the son of Olson’s daughter Jody, and is one of 14 grandchildren.

“You blank all of that out,” Olson said. “Matt comes out and gives you 100% every day physically and mentally. He’s a good scout-team player because he’s bright and picks things up quickly. He understands the game.”

A walk-on at Arizona, the 6-foot-6 forward Brase played two seasons at Central Arizona College, averaging 14.6 points, six rebounds and 3.3 assists his sophomore season, but he chose to attend Arizona despite knowing he’d play a limited role.