Potential Rivals Eye Hahn’s Job

James K. Hahn should be smiling. The mayor who kept Los Angeles together and presided over a steep drop in crime has filled his campaign chest with more than $1.3 million. And a year before the next mayoral election, no serious challenger has entered the field.

But as criminal investigations into alleged political favoritism and corrupt contracting continue to dog Hahn’s administration, some prominent Los Angeles political figures are plotting challenges to a mayor many see as increasingly vulnerable.

“What the recall shows is that no incumbent is safe,” said Cal State Fullerton political scientist Raphael Sonenshein, who has written extensively about Los Angeles politics. “Investigations are always a serious problem ... and now the ball is rolling, and no one knows where it’s going to go.”

City Councilman Bernard C. Parks, the former police chief whom Hahn dumped after accusing him of ineffectiveness, has been talking privately with advisors for months about running.

Former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg, who has been working closely with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger since the recall, said he was seriously exploring a run from his base in the San Fernando Valley.

State Sen. Richard Alarcon, another Valley Democrat and former city councilman, has started asking people for endorsements and plans to take out papers this week to start fundraising, according to sources.

And City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa, whom Hahn defeated in 2001, is watching the race closely, advisors to the former labor leader and Assembly speaker said.

City Controller Laura Chick also has hinted she might even get into the race, though she has already endorsed Hahn’s reelection.

With potential challengers who could undermine his support in the black community, take away voters in the Valley and pick up a following in the Latino community, Hahn could be left without a base next year, according to several political observers.

“That’s the nightmare scenario for Hahn,” said Fernando Guerra, director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University.

“There is blood in the water, and the sharks are circling,” Guerra said.

An incumbent mayor has not lost reelection in Los Angeles since Tom Bradley unseated Sam Yorty in 1973.

And throughout his career, Hahn has proven to be a tough campaigner; he has never lost a citywide election through six campaigns.

The mayor has a big head start in fundraising and is better positioned than any challenger to raise the millions needed to run a mayoral campaign in Los Angeles. Three years ago, he and Villaraigosa together spent more than $13 million.

With a clean-cut image that has helped win voters in the past, Hahn also may be hard to tar with talk of corruption, many political observers say.

Hahn himself professes little concern about potential challenges. “Big-city mayors are always in a position where people are not going to agree with decisions they make,” the mayor said recently, adding that he was proud to stand on his record.

But criminal probes into potential ties between city contracting and political fundraising are continuing to grab headlines.

And the investigations come on top of problems the mayor has had with other elected officials on issues such as funding for police and campaign finance reform.

Parks, who has represented a largely black South Los Angeles district on the City Council for the past year, has become an increasingly vocal critic of the mayor, challenging Hahn’s budget and last week openly calling for the removal of Airport Commission President and Hahn fundraiser Ted Stein.

Parks has declined to discuss his campaign plans publicly. But several political observers say that should he run, he could threaten Hahn’s traditional base among black voters in South Los Angeles.

Hahn’s father, the late Los Angeles County Supervisor Kenneth Hahn, represented that community for more than four decades, and three years ago, Hahn captured 80% of black voters in the runoff against Villaraigosa.

But Hahn angered some sectors of the city’s black community by pushing Parks out of the police chief’s office. “He has disappointed us,” South Los Angeles business owner Rodney Shepard said of the mayor.

Hertzberg could pose a different problem for the incumbent, say many political observers.

The longtime lawyer and former Assembly speaker from Sherman Oaks could be a formidable fundraiser.

And with a base in the San Fernando Valley, Hertzberg threatens to take away moderate Valley voters who helped elect Hahn in 2001.

Hahn won 55% of the vote in the Valley in 2001. Hertzberg may also be able to look for support from the popular Schwarzenegger.

With only six years in the Assembly, Hertzberg is not as well known as other local politicians. In 2002, Hertzberg failed to persuade voters to pick his candidate to replace him in the Assembly.

But many see Hertzberg as one of Hahn’s strongest potential foes.

“If Hertzberg can coalesce support in the Valley, which he should be able to do, and make some serious inroads on the Jewish Westside, he would be a very formidable candidate,” said Larry Levine, a longtime Valley political consultant. Hertzberg has said only that he was debating whether to enter the race.

Alarcon, who has served in the state Senate since 1998, has not shied from publicly criticizing Hahn. “The corruption investigation is very disheartening,” he said in a recent interview. “It does compel me to see if I can help.”

With ties to organized labor and the potential to pick up support in the city’s growing Latino electorate, Alarcon is eyeing Latino voters, 82% of whom backed Villaraigosa three years ago.

If other candidates split Hahn’s base, that could make Alarcon formidable, said Guerra of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles. “People have always underestimated Alarcon,” Guerra said.

Jeff Daar, chairman of the Democratic Party of the San Fernando Valley, a grass-roots association of party clubs, said he believed Alarcon would have better name recognition in the San Fernando Valley than Hertzberg. Alarcon represented the area on the City Council in the 1990s.

Villaraigosa said he does not have any plans to run now. “I’m enjoying being a council member,” he said

Villaraigosa made peace with the mayor after his loss in 2001; he received 46% of the vote in the runoff. And the powerful Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, which provided much of the muscle behind Villaraigosa’s mayoral run, negotiated a rapprochement with Hahn.

But if other candidates join the race, all bets are off, political strategists say. “There’s going to be tremendous pressure on Antonio to run,” Guerra said.

Villaraigosa has already shown he can raise millions of dollars and separate himself from other Latino candidates. Three years ago, he bested longtime Congressman Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles) in the mayoral primary.

And, though Hahn still has stronger ties to public-sector unions, Villaraigosa continues to have the strongest ties to the labor federation.

City Controller Chick has already endorsed Hahn’s reelection, though she has also mused openly about “what kind of mayor” she would make. In recent months, she has led criticism of the city’s airport and harbor departments and threatened to withdraw her endorsement of the mayor.

Many observers say it will still be tough to beat the incumbent, however, even with the ongoing criminal probes.

“Short of him getting caught with his hand in the cookie jar, it’s hard to see him being hurt,” said Joe Cerrell, a longtime political consultant who was close to Hahn’s father. “You don’t think of Jimmy Hahn as anything but a Boy Scout.”

Hahn, who was a longtime city attorney, can point to a number of significant accomplishments in his first term.

Police Chief William J. Bratton, whom Hahn hired, has been hailed as a champion crime fighter who reversed a recent surge in crime and steadied the Police Department following the Rampart scandal.

Homicides fell 22% in the city last year, a decline that Hahn cites repeatedly as proof that his focus on making Los Angeles “the safest big city in America” is paying off.

Two years ago, Hahn led the charge to stop the San Fernando Valley from seceding. And earlier this year, the mayor took the lead in efforts by local governments across California to stop lawmakers in Sacramento from using local property taxes to balance the state’s budget.

“The best way to get reelected is to produce results,” Hahn said recently, quoting his father’s old campaign slogan, “Hahn gets things done.”

“I think I would be vulnerable if I wasn’t keeping my campaign promises, if I wasn’t working to make this city safer, if I wasn’t working to build more housing,” the mayor said. “I’m not concerned about any potential candidates.”

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Times staff writer Jessica Garrison contributed to this report.